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Author Topic: Is Melksham set to become a London commuter town?  (Read 7682 times)
grahame
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« on: August 04, 2019, 08:13:10 »

As from 16th December, a new early train from Melksham and a later evening connection back from London will allow you to be in the capital by 7 a.m. add leave as late as a quarter to eight in the evening and still get home - with a journey time from Paddington to Melksham of just 81 minutes. Those travel times are similar to some places which are already "classic" commuter towns. Pulborough in Sussex, Ely in Cambridgeshire and Whitstable in Kent all have similar London travel times.  (See {{here}} for timetable details from mid December)

Melksham is a growing town, a lovely place to bring up a family, and there is a great deal of housing within cycling or walking distance of the station - so why not commute from Melksham to London?  Pulborough, Ely and Whitstable all have a number of things going for them which make them very attractive as commuter towns compared (at the moment) to Melksham.

1. Melksham's train service isn't frequent enough - it really needs to run hourly at peak times to be an attractive commute for people who may find they can't always leave the office on time.  We're not all that far off that service level - there's probably just one more round trip needed, and it should be within the capacity of the current infrastructure

2. Melksham does not have any "safety net" late train home - there's no Paddington departure at around 10 p.m. that will get you home is you're late in the office or headed out to a Birthday / Christmas / Leaving / just for the sake of it "do".

3. The Melksham fare is much higher.  Weekly season £282.30 compared to £136.80, £126.40 and £132.90 for the other stations I have quoted.

4. Paddington!  Not the heart of office-land but a further messy-sh tube or bus ride onward.

Five day a week "classic" commuting (and the use of season tickets) has faded - but there are still a well used facility.  And commuting has diversified away from office blocks in The City. CrossRail should open "soon" - say (realistically) by the end of CP6 (Control Period 6 - The five year period between 2019 and 2024).  I'm not totally convinced how much of a brake the high season ticket price is (just look how many people already commute from Chippenham) and Melksham.  I rather think we have a latent potential here in Melksham.  Connect up the station to Scotland Road (that's the Northern Access) ... and that takes you across to Murray Walk and puts Melksham Forest in walking distance of the station.  Restore the southern steps and you cut a hundred yards or so off the walk to George Ward and Addison Road.  Improve(d) train connections to other towns such as Reading, Didcot (for Harwell) and Oxford will bring in other diversifies "South East" destinations.  Through trains to and from an airport (Southampton) should hep attract new residents who need easy access to Scotland, Ireland and Europe too.

I await with interest the outcome of the Williams Review and the Rail Delivery Group's fare consultation. Although the commute may be surprisingly robust to the season ticket differential, a fare of £177 from Melksham (day return via Swindon) versus £53 (day return from Whitstable via Chatham) may be just too much of a differential.  There are many quirks in season and other ticket prices - some of which are steeped in history of government looking to encourage new towns, others in the history of rail companies and others pricing to what they felt their market would stand, and yet more to help control demand where demand was in danger of outstripping capacity.

There is every chance of significant further growth in Melksham, including residential development within easy access of the station. The next decade should be interesting.
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ellendune
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« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2019, 09:00:02 »

Your fare comparison is not reasonable as although the travel times are similar, the distance es are not!

Pulborough is less than 60 miles from London so is more akin to Didcot than Melksham,
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grahame
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« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2019, 09:09:20 »

Your fare comparison is not reasonable as although the travel times are similar, the distance es are not!

Pulborough is less than 60 miles from London so is more akin to Didcot than Melksham,

From a railway operation viewpoint, I agree with you.    From a commuter viewpoint where it's the travel time and cost that matters, I think the comparison worth making.   Indeed, it highlights the distance / speed element.
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Robin Summerhill
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« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2019, 10:54:12 »

Quote from: grahame
Quote from: ellendune
Your fare comparison is not reasonable as although the travel times are similar, the distance es are not!

Pulborough is less than 60 miles from London so is more akin to Didcot than Melksham,

From a railway operation viewpoint, I agree with you.    From a commuter viewpoint where it's the travel time and cost that matters, I think the comparison worth making.   Indeed, it highlights the distance / speed element.

There is another way of looking at that. What would be the private motorist's fuel cost be from Melksham to London and from Didcot to London. It wouldn't be the same, would it? Come to that, what would the railway's fuel cost be in getting you between those places?

Using the argument "well it takes the same time" appears to me to be comparing pears and apples.
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grahame
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« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2019, 16:38:55 »

Using the argument "well it takes the same time" appears to me to be comparing pears and apples.

I like the crispness of apples but I prefer the taste of pears.  Ooops - a comparison  Grin

Cost of day return Melksham:Whitstable ratio
3.339622641509434

Cost of weekly season Melksham:Whitstable ratio
2.073529411764706

Distance Melksham:Whitstable ratio
1.6129032258064515
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ChrisB
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« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2019, 16:49:04 »

Still not a real comparison. You'd be lucky to get over 80mph on Southern/Southeatern.
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grahame
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« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2019, 16:50:37 »

Above posted in haste before I had to switch WiFi from station to train ... the figures quoted are of course absurdly overaccurate - the point is that the distance is 60% more but the price for a single day is 233% more.  In other words not only longer distance, but more pence per mile too.   Where has the concept of quantity discount gone?
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ChrisB
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« Reply #7 on: August 04, 2019, 17:04:25 »

See my post above. You pay extra for 'HST (High Speed Train (Inter City class 43 125 units))' trains.
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grahame
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« Reply #8 on: August 04, 2019, 17:17:41 »

See my post above. You pay extra for 'HST (High Speed Train (Inter City class 43 125 units))' trains.

As a fact, I agree - that's why the ratios are higher.  60% more distance but up to 233% more to pay. But the next question is "is that paying more per mile right?".

[advocate mode=devil]Since an "HST" covers - say - 100 miles in an hour, but a Southeastern electric covers only 60 miles in a typical hour, each HST seat has an earning power 66% greater than each Southern electric seat, so should not HST service seats be cheaper per mile?[/advocate]
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ChrisB
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« Reply #9 on: August 04, 2019, 18:32:04 »

And the cost of providing a seat on a 'Southeastern' as opposed to an 'HST (High Speed Train (Inter City class 43 125 units))' is?
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ellendune
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« Reply #10 on: August 04, 2019, 21:49:55 »

And the cost of providing a seat on a 'Southeastern' as opposed to an 'HST (High Speed Train (Inter City class 43 125 units))' is?

Clearly staff costs are a function of time (hours run) but...

Are the maintenance costs a function of hours run or miles run?
Are the track access charges paid to NR» (Network Rail - home page) a function of hours run or miles run?
Are the fule costs a function of hours run or miles run and are other relevant factors involved?

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Robin Summerhill
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« Reply #11 on: August 04, 2019, 23:20:19 »

I quite enjoy playing devil's advocate myself, but this thread is stretching that advocacy to the limit...
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grahame
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« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2019, 06:15:29 »

I quite enjoy playing devil's advocate myself, but this thread is stretching that advocacy to the limit...

Indeed - we have got rather deep into some strange fare advocacy.  The fact that a lower pence-per-mile on lower speed train is a double hit on income per day on each seat is something of a side issue here, though over all it's a very real problem in local train balance sheets.
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CyclingSid
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« Reply #13 on: August 05, 2019, 07:28:19 »

If you are talking about commuting to London, there are presumably additional factors such as:
 - where you are going in London, onward connections etc. (part of the argument for Cross Rail?)
 - is there car parking available at your destination (what is the annual cost of car parking in London)
 - does your partner also work in London
 - does your potential productivity (?) on a train out weigh any saving of using a car
and many more
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Robin Summerhill
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« Reply #14 on: August 05, 2019, 17:16:04 »

Quote from: grahame
3. The Melksham fare is much higher.  Weekly season £282.30 compared to £136.80, £126.40 and £132.90 for the other stations I have quoted.

You could reduce the cost of the 7 day season now, without any Williams Review, by splitting at Didcot

MKM» (Melksham (Station code) - next trains)-DID (Didcot Parkway)  £93.80
DID-PAD» (Paddington (London) - next trains) £153.00
Total       £246.80
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