Thanks for the explanation Grahame. In all the detail around the numbers, I think the second half of my question got lost, which was do you think numbers are now on the rise again with a more stable service and more carriages. Or do you think it will take more services, especially around rush hour, to attract more passengers?
I could have sworn I answered the second part - but looking up, not in this thread ... and perhaps not even on the forum. So ... I owe and answer.
1. Based on the statistically insignificant sample of one journey .... if you give me a three way choice between "on the up", "stable" and "falling" I would say "on the up".
The numbers getting off that train in Melksham were excellent. Mid week, and holiday week both of which I would expect to depress the number on this particular line. The train looks quieter than it did when it was just a single carriage, but still looked very busy - especially as it pulled in to Melksham.
2. It's not a question of "growing"
or "needs more services". Yes, based only flimsy sample there is growth - but I would suggest that providing more services especially around the peak would provide another layer of transformational growth.
To give you an idea ... 3,000 journeys to / from Melksham 7 years ago, 75,000 now ... with current service might rise to 120,000 in a few years. Gaps no more than hourly in peaks, 2 hours off peak, trains 7 days / 17 hours per day and you'll add another big tranche. Hourly all day, every day (that's the point at which infrastructure work is needed), other ducks lined up, and you'll hit quarter of a million Melksham journeys. The proportion of to/from Melksham and through journeys is around 40% of / from Melksham and 60% through at present. Melksham will grow faster that through in the future, so expect 50% Melksham, 50% through in a few years time. Lots of numbers - happy to go through the background data to explain where those pretty well educated guesstimates come from, and which the other ducks that need to be in a row are.
Oh - the immediate gaps to fill ... extra calls at Melksham southbound at around 08:20, 17:00 and 23:00, northbound at around 09:10, 17:40 and 21:30