Cotswold Line - 2019 cancellation and amendments log

[whole diary]

[JontyMort]

I'm on the 2022 Paddington to Great Malvern and it seems to be going all the way.

<cynic> they need to get the stock in position for tomorrow.

Two of the three previous trains ran through incurring only minor delays through the flooded sections so you should be ok.

Getting stock in the right place for the start up tomorrow is always one of the considerations when working out an amended train plan.

In fact, we had an excellent run in the circumstances. We had to wait for the single track at Wolvercot, but seemed to go through the affected area at full speed - certainly with no stop/caution/permissive working. We approached Shrub Hill on time, but fortunately the signalman was able to implement the usual procedure to ensure a late arrival.

But well done to all concerned for getting us home at the end of a difficult day.

There is no doubt that the introduction of the IETs^▸ (Intercity Express Train), coupled with judicious platform-lengthening, has improved reliability in normal conditions.

[Worcester_Passenger]

This morning, the halts train is the problem:

05:14 Oxford to Worcester Foregate Street due 06:22 will be cancelled.
This is due to a shortage of train crew.
Last Updated:15/11/2019 04:26

06:51 Worcester Foregate Street to Didcot Parkway due 08:28 will be started from Oxford.
It will no longer call at Worcester Foregate Street, Worcester Shrub Hill, Pershore, Evesham, Moreton-in-Marsh, Kingham, Shipton, Ascott-under-Wychwood, Charlbury, Finstock, Combe and Hanborough.
This is due to a shortage of train crew.
Last Updated:15/11/2019 04:26

Starting the Worcester - Didcot at Oxford is a bit of a joke. Does that mean it's OK for the statistics?

[IndustryInsider]

Starting the Worcester - Didcot at Oxford is a bit of a joke. Does that mean it's OK for the statistics?

No, a common misconception.  From the ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) website:

A train is classed as a full cancellation if it ran less than half of its planned journey length.
A train is classed as a part cancellation if:
• It ran at least half but not all of its planned journeys length, or
• It completed its whole journey length but failed to stop at one or more of its planned stations.

[stuving]

Starting the Worcester - Didcot at Oxford is a bit of a joke. Does that mean it's OK for the statistics?

No, a common misconception.  From the ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) website:

A train is classed as a full cancellation if it ran less than half of its planned journey length.
A train is classed as a part cancellation if:
• It ran at least half but not all of its planned journeys length, or
• It completed its whole journey length but failed to stop at one or more of its planned stations.

That's the basis of ORR's statistics, but DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) also receives operational monitoring data (more of it than ORR), in which cancellation is subtly different. (Some of ORR's stats - CaSL and PPM^‡(resolve) - are passed to DfT and used as well.) In part that's because of its use - monitoring performance under the contract. DfT are also sent the Train Plan, which is compared with the Service Level required. Cancellations are deviations from the Enforced Train Plan, and judged against the excuse for them (as also are short-forms). As definitions, cancellations are full or partial, and each sort can be Disputed or Network Rail (which must include other TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company) and FOCs^▸ (Freight Operating Company) via NR^» (Network Rail - home page)). Numbers are given for each.

“Cancellation” means a Passenger Service:
(a) which is included in the Enforcement Plan of the Day and which is cancelled and attributed to the Franchisee pursuant to its Track Access Agreement; or
(b) which is included in the Enforcement Plan of the Day and which operates less than 50 per cent. of its scheduled mileage (as prescribed in the Enforcement Plan of the Day) for reasons attributed to the Franchisee pursuant to its Track Access Agreement;

“Partial Cancellation” means a Passenger Service which is included in the Enforcement Plan of the Day and which Passenger Service:
(a) misses a stop;
(b) completes 50 per cent. or more, but less than 100 per cent. of its scheduled journey as prescribed in the Enforcement Plan of the Day; or
(c) arrives at its final destination scheduled in the Enforcement Plan of the Day more than 120 minutes late,
in each case, for reasons which are attributed to the Franchisee pursuant to its Track Access Agreement;

So mostly, the words have got lawyerised. The Enforced Train Plan is defined circularly: the general long-term operating plan that best meets the timetable, and is used by DfT for enforcement (insofar as they do any).

[IndustryInsider]

The line has shut again due to high water levels near Evesham.

[charles_uk]

So far as a result of today's flooding problems:

Cancellations to services between Moreton-In-Marsh and Worcester Shrub Hill

Due to heavy rain flooding the railway between Moreton-in-Marsh and Worcester Shrub Hill all lines are blocked.

Train services running through these stations will be cancelled, delayed by up to 60 minutes or suspended between Moreton-In-Marsh and Worcester Shrub Hill. Disruption is expected until the end of the day.
Last Updated:15/11/2019 09:43

07:50 London Paddington to Great Malvern due 10:13 was terminated at Moreton-in-Marsh.
08:21 London Paddington to Hereford due 11:42 will be terminated at Oxford.
09:21 London Paddington to Worcester Foregate Street due 11:31 will be diverted between Didcot Parkway and Worcester Shrub Hill.
09:50 Moreton-in-Marsh to London Paddington due 11:30 will be terminated at Oxford.
09:54 Great Malvern to London Paddington due 12:28 will be diverted between Worcester Shrub Hill and Didcot Parkway.

[Worcester_Passenger]

At 10:55, RTT^» (Real Time Trains - website) is showing the 09:21 Paddington - Foregate Street as having gone to Oxford and then reversed back towards Didcot.

[IndustryInsider]

A Turbo operated shuttle service will operate when it can between Oxford and Moreton-In-Marsh.

[Witham Bobby]

Reported locally on broadcast media that the Avon at Evesham isn't expected to peak until tomorrow (Sat 16-11-2019).  I guess it's reasonable to expect that the service cancellation will last until water levels start to reduce.

[IndustryInsider]

Yes it probably is.  It’s not flood water on the tracks as it was yesterday, but risk of bridge collapse over a very swollen River Avon.

Looks like the shuttle Oxford<>Moreton Turbo service is running every two hours at the moment, as close as possible to the equivalent normal through service timings.

Buses Moreton<>Worcester.

Through services diverting between Reading and Worcester via Swindon where possible.

[Richard Fairhurst]

Evesham doesn't look too great right now:

https://www.farsondigitalwatercams.com/locations/evesham
https://www.farsondigitalwatercams.com/locations/evesham-lock

(sorry, the two river webcams are a bit ad-infested)

[Witham Bobby]

BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page)-Pravda suggesting now that the line's shut at Evesham until at least 1200 Sat 16 Nov

[IndustryInsider]

Yes I would be surprised if it was to open sooner.  NR^» (Network Rail - home page) are enlisting the help of a specialist diving team to monitor the bridge.  At least tomorrow a proper train/bus plan can be worked out by GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) rather than the ad-hoc one forced upon them today.

[charles_uk]

It looks like even the 2 hourly Oxford to Moreton-in-Marsh shuttle has now been pulled. The last down departure was the 13:25 OXF^» (Oxford - next trains):MIM and everything now is showing up as "cancelled".

Advice on Journeycheck is:

Due to overcrowding at Oxford station you are advised not to travel to Oxford and for stations between Oxford and Worcester Shrub Hill you are advised not to travel the road transport is very busy.

and

Emergency replacement road transport is in place for stations between Oxford, Moreton-in-Marsh and Worcester Shrub Hill only.

But it's very fluid.

The 15:22 PAD^» (Paddington (London) - next trains):GMV has progressed beyond Oxford and it seems the 17:22 PAD:HFD^» (Hereford - next trains) and 17:52 PAD:WOS^» (Worcester Shrub Hill - next trains) will be running as far as MIM. Clearly GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) and National Rail are trying to ensure there is a level of service, and it can't be easy for anyone whether commuter trying to work out how to get home or operator juggling their resources.

[Celestial]

But it's very fluid.

Well, yes, that is the problem.