2019 Predictions

[whole diary]

[TaplowGreen]

A decent service which does not reward failure with rising fares (and those who have failed with rising salaries), and all the "record levels of investment" we've been told about for the last decade reflected in performance would be nice, so that we don't have a repeat of this story at the same time this year;

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/27/rail-punctuality-train-13-year-low


That's a hope, rather than a prediction! 
 

[GBM]

A very experienced electrification engineer considers retirement after 43 years service

Not considering the 50 years together with a gold watch? If such a thing exists these days...   That said of course, 43 years these days is an excellent achievement and feat of survival.  Very well done indeed to you

[grahame]

Melksham hat on. I look forward - with some degree of hope - to a much higher percentage of trains running to the timetable published twice a year.  And to those trains running within 10 minutes of their scheduled time, and with sufficient capacity not to put people off.   So much work was done in 2018 to bring that optimism.

With good continued marketing and promotion - and there are different mainsprings on that bow this year - passenger numbers should start to blossom again.  For the year to March 2019, ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) data to be published in December will still be muted by the massive service losses from the annual timetable during 2018, but for the year to March 2020, and the ORR publication in December 2020, we could break the 100,000 barrier.

[simonw]

Trying to be optimistic, I do hope that all the work done over the past three years finally delivers more trains, on time and with better information when things go wrong.

[martyjon]

Further cost rises again push back the re-opening of the Portishead line.

[Dispatch Box]

What a job it was to try and get a picture to update on this forum, It doesn't show a list of pictures, just file names, making it difficult to upload, Anyone else found this?

[TonyK]

My prediction, which I so hope is unfounded, is that there will continue to be the impression from the relevant authorities of a lack of urgency to build and open Bristol Portway Parkway on the wonderful Severn Riviera Express.

The money has been allocated to the West of England Partnership for that. If it doesn't get built this year, they have to give it back. So my first prediction is that they open the station just before midnight on 31 December 2019.

[JayMac]

So my first prediction is that they open the station just before midnight on 31 December 2019.

... but don't change the timetable. Open station but no services scheduled to call.

[grahame]

So my first prediction is that they open the station just before midnight on 31 December 2019.

... but don't change the timetable. Open station but no services scheduled to call.

Like IBM 

[Dispatch Box]

My prediction, which I so hope is unfounded, is that there will continue to be the impression from the relevant authorities of a lack of urgency to build and open Bristol Portway Parkway on the wonderful Severn Riviera Express.

The money has been allocated to the West of England Partnership for that. If it doesn't get built this year, they have to give it back. So my first prediction is that they open the station just before midnight on 31 December 2019.

Where is this station supposed to be?.

[johnneyw]

So my first prediction is that they open the station just before midnight on 31 December 2019.

... but don't change the timetable. Open station but no services scheduled to call.

Rather like Kenilworth Station last year.

[eightonedee]

A complete year's worth-

January Relief that Chris Grayling is leaving DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) is shortlived, when it is revealed that Boris Johnson, on his third (I think) comeback replaces him, as part of a deal for his support for whatever deal on Brexit/referendum the government puts forward. At his first public visit to a railway site, he is seen looking whistfully at overhead wires but before he can arrange a zipwire ride for the press a senior civil servant persuades him it is perhaps a bit risky

Abellio hand back all franchises to the government or franchise partners.

February Consternation at GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) when Wabtec announce that the earliest they can start work on the conversion of GW^▸ (Great Western)'s bi-mode class 769s is 2021 or 2022. A call goes out to heritage railways for old class 37s to tow underused Electrostars to cover, but the scheme is abandoned when it is discovered that Wabtec are the only company able to refurbish them and they will not be able to take on the work until 2024, when they hope to finish the bi-mode class 769 order.

Mitsui hand back all franchises to government or franchise partners,

March Late winter snow from a beast from the east brings rail system to a halt. Boris Johnson photographed with garden centre snow shovel at Paddington, coinciding with filming of a new series of Paddington 24/7

SNCF^▸ (Societe Nationale des Chemins de fer Francais - French National Railways) hand back all franchises to government or franchise partners.

April Consternation when someone at GWR remembers that it has promised to return all DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) other than Turbos to the leasing company before the end of the year. Call goes out to heritage railways for any suitable usable stock. Bubblecars from Mid Hants and Wensleydale seen on driver training runs on the Trans Wilts line.

Serco hand back all franchises to government or franchise partners.

May All services to Devon halted when an IET^▸ (Intercity Express Train) hits a rabbit which disables the train.

Stagecoach hands back all franchises to government or franchise partners. When Richard Branson hears about it he falls out of his hammock on Necker and hands his shares back to the government too.

June Didcot Railway Centre volunteers stock for extra trains for Glastonbury. However it turns out Dean three axle stock incompatible with remaining Sprinters and borrowed Pressed Steel heritage stock, so offer declined.

Trenitalia hands back all franchises to government or franchise partners.

July Boris Johnson in trouble with the press for muttering the McGonagall's Tay Bridge Disaster audibly under his breath despite a senior civil servant hissing at him that it is inappropriate at opening of a new bridge.

National Express announce that they are handing back their franchises, but are embarrassed when it is pointed out at their press conference that they have already done so.

August A scrap dealer makes a fortune by selling the Pacers he has agreed to buy back to the leasing company for three times the sum he agreed to pay for them.

A national shortage of barbeque charcoal brings a summer series of RMT^▸ (National Union of Rail, Maritime & Transport Workers) strikes against DOO^▸ (Driver-Only Operation (that is, trains which operate without carrying a guard)) to a premature end.

September Panic at First Group when TfL^» (Transport for London - about) confirm that they will start CrossRail/Elizabeth Line services between Paddington and Reading and they suddenly realise that the loss of fare income renders the GWR franchise unviable. First hand franchise back to DfT.

MTR announce withdrawal from SWR^» (South Western Railway - about). Roscos acquire First Group for a pound in the hope that it might secure the leasing income for the outstanding undelivered new trains. After RMT announces a new series of strikes against proposals for DOO, the Roscos hand the remaining First franchises back to DfT.

October Go-ahead Group and Arriva DB^» (Deutsche Bahn - German State Railway - about), the last remaining franchise operators announce a new joint venture, British Bahn, to bid for overall franchise for all the network, backed by Roscos. A new blue and white livery is unveiled, and a deal is done with Network Rail for use of the double arrow logo.

November Williams report published. It concludes that the franchise system is not broken, all it needs is a few new entrants into the franchising system and market mechanisms will cure all problems. Story receives little press attention as the main story is about Boris Johnson being photographed with his new mistress.

December Chaos on the network when new BB/Network Rail timetable collapses. RMT calls a strike for extra money for taxi fares to get home.

[CyclingSid]

Can we apply for a franchise with little money in the bank, little experience and no equipment?

Oops, sorry that is the Marine side of DfT^» (Department for Transport - about).

[patch38]

Can we apply for a franchise with little money in the bank, little experience and no equipment?

Plus we need to ensure that our Ts&Cs are carefully copied from a pizza delivery company...   

[chuffed]

Just goes to show the Dft couldn't organise a pizza up in a takeaway .....