Of course, if Chris Grayling and his civil servants have been looking in, they'll have seen that we've already sorted a plan for them. I've taken the liberty of highlighting in bold the sections that may be of most interest to them....
Having advised politicians as well as having worked on a number of rail business cases in the past, I do find myself concurring with a lot of what Red Squirrel says. Whilst BCR▸ 's and the like are an important component of individual schemes, when it comes to broad-brush transport strategy such as whether to take forward high-speed rail, whether to proceed with an electrification program or whether to expand the rail network, it is always the political decision that ultimately takes precedence over the business case.
Take HS2▸ for example – For years we were told that the figures didn't add up, until one day a political decision was taken, and suddenly they did. The same is true of electrification, out of favour throughout the early years of privatisation because of “lack of flexibility” until one day a political decision was taken, and suddenly it was all the rage again.
That doesn't, of course, answer what I believe were Red Squirrel's two separate main questions though – Namely “How much will expanding the rail network cost?” and “Should we just get on with it or simply give up?”
I've been giving this some thought over the last day or so, and here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to give you a scenario where it is absolutely 100% in the political interests of either the current Conservative Transport Secretary, or a potential incoming Labour Transport Secretary, to embark on the biggest expansion of the non-devolved UK▸ rail network in terms of lines and stations in living memory. Futhermore, in this scenario, just one political decision is required to make it a reality, and no, it isn't scrapping HS2 – We can still have that as well, should we so wish.
First though, we need to decide what our network expansion program will consist of, and (ta-daa!) “How much will it cost?”
In choosing which line reopenings to include, I've gone with the relatively well-respected Campaign for Better Transport's list of “Top 12 Line Reopenings”, with one slight alteration – The list included the line between Stourbridge-Walsall-Lichfield, but since it was published, the section that includes Wednesbury and Dudley has been approved for conversion to light rail, so I've gone with Walsall-Lichfield instead.
In terms of costings, had I given myself weeks perhaps stretching into months to reply to this topic, I would have loved to have based them on following grahame's list to the letter. However, I've only actually given myself a day, so I'm afraid you'll have to excuse me relying on other people's calculations on this occasion. What I've done in each case is to take a rail industry recognised business case figure, and where necessary uprate it for inflation. This is obviously not perfect, as it's effectively my best guess based on the best guesses of those who officially studied the relevant case. As a result, some figures do look rather on the high side (and you can tell that from those cases which I've included that we've discussed at length on the forum), while some others look rather on the optimistic side to say the least:
Ashington-Blyth-Newcastle - £203 million
Portishead/Metrowest Phase 1 - £116 million
Walsall-Brownhills-Lichfield - £157 million
Newcastle-Washington-Durham Parkway-Ferryhill - £111 million
Lewes-Uckfield - £186 million
Skipton-Colne - £103 million
Leicester-Burton - £186 million
Fleetwood-Preston - £21 million
Wisbech-March - £122 million
Totton-Hythe - £15 million
East West Rail Complete Oxford-Cambridge - £1 billion
Bere Alston-Tavistock-Okehampton - £479 million
TOTAL - £2.699 billion
In addition, I will also include an additional £341 million for a massively-enlarged New Stations Fund, so we can get as many of those much-needed schemes opened as possible, rather than languishing on the drawing board indefinitely.
FINAL TOTAL - £3.04 billion
So how are we going to pay for all this, I hear you ask.
The DfT» has a Road Investment Strategy which will see £15.2 billion invested over 5 years in over 100 major schemes to enhance, renew and improve the road network, which equates to roughly – you've guessed it - £3.04 billion per year. The period runs from 2015-2020 and is known as RIS 1. In parallel to RIS 1, the Road Investment Strategy for the period post-2020 – known as RIS 2 – is being developed along very similar lines, but crucially for us, hasn't been finalised yet..
What I would propose is that the road schemes that would have been funded in the final year of RIS 1 – 2019-2020 – be deferred for one year and instead become the schemes that are funded in the opening year of RIS 2 – 2020-2021. Although this will undoubtedly inconvenience those road scheme promoters affected, remember we are not talking about cancelling any road schemes that have been approved as part of the RIS, and only delaying a few by just one year. When you consider that every scheme on our rail expansion list has been deferred by a lot longer than a year at some stage, I don't think this is a huge amount to ask.
The £3.04 billion that would have been allocated to RIS 1 in 2019-2020 would instead be allocated to the biggest expansion of the non-devolved UK rail network in terms of lines and stations in living memory, and that's the political decision that would have to be made.
So why would taking this decision be absolutely 100% in the political interests of either the current Conservative Transport Secretary, or a potential incoming Labour Transport Secretary?
If you are the current Conservative Transport Secretary, then you've gone from being the Transport Secretary who really wanted to be Transport Secretary to being the Transport Secretary who it all went wrong for. Whether there's a new train to be introduced, a line to be wired up, the integrity of a franchise system to uphold, a new timetable to smooth the way for, or interminable strikes to avoid, it's pretty much been rail industry failure all the way, and all on your watch. However, if you take this political decision, then although those of us with some rail knowledge might find the link tenuous at best, it's entirely possible that the public might look back and say “Until he came along, I never thought these lines and stations would reopen, but look at the network now!” and judge your overall time accordingly.
If you are an incoming Labour Transport Secretary in a Corbyn-led government, then you have to get straight on with renationalisation. Whatever your views on the merits or otherwise of this, there's no doubt that this will be a rocky process, with heated battles likely with those whose positions depend on the status quo being maintained. When things inevitably don't all go according to plan, there is clearly the potential for your time at the helm to be equally mired in the brown stuff. However, if you take this political decision, then although those of us with some rail knowledge might find the link tenuous at best, it's entirely possible that the public might look back and say “Until renationalisation, I never thought these lines and stations would reopen, but look at the network now!” and judge your overall time accordingly.
In the wider political context, unless the UK really is about to turn backside-over-bosum on its axis and vote to remain in the EU» in a second referendum, then either a Conservative or Labour government is going to have to steer us through Brexit at the end of March 2019, and who knows what awaits us then? However, if you take this political decision, then although those of us with some rail knowledge might find the link tenuous at best, it's entirely possible that the public might look back and say “Until Brexit, I never thought these lines and stations would reopen, but look at the network now!” (you get the picture...)
Finally, if you happen (god forbid) to be Network Rail, having really not had the greatest of times recently in terms of figures, planning, delivery and pretty much everything else besides, perhaps this is an opportunity for me to focus on something you really have managed to get right (Savour it folks, it aint gonna happen often...)
Following the collapse of the tender process, Network Rail stepped in to take over the construction of the Borders Railway in November 2012, and agreed to build it by mid-2015. Despite major challenges, and having been praised along the way for deploying ground-breaking techniques to overcome line blockages, they duly did indeed build the Borders Railway by mid-2015. It's entirely possible that if they sign-up for this expansion program in late-2019, and build these lines by mid-2022 the public might look back and say “I thought Network Rail were on their last legs, but they built all these lines and stations, and look at the network now!”
I don't think even those of us with some rail knowledge would deny them the credit for that.
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