Costs of congestion

[whole diary]

[froome]

A lot is talked about the costs to the economy associated with congestion on the roads. On the rail system, if everything was running as per timetables, there would be no problems with congestion. But, of course, that does not always happen. I was reminded of that today when I was on the train from Temple Meads to Bath that broke down at Keynsham, blocking the main London line. I was on the train there for 20 minutes until the TM^‡(resolve) opened the doors and said the train would have to wait for a fitter, at which point I took my Brompton and cycled to Bath, getting home quicker, I understand, than those who stayed on the train. A lot of trains were blocked by that incident, with cancellations and much delay.

Which made me wonder whether anyone has ever tried to estimate what the costs to the economy are of congestion on the rails, whether caused by train breakdowns or just overcrowding of the system. Obviously it wouldn't be on the scale of that on the roads, but judging from the number of trains I've been on that have broken down, I suspect it may be significant.

[eightf48544]

Interesting thoughts. Quite hard to measure but for instance would you charge a different rate for delays going to work or coming home. As aside why is one always delayed when you want to get home early?

Would you factor in those people who allegedly lost their jobs because of the Southern fiasco?

What about leisure travel would you have a different rate to business travel?.

Then there's the internal cost of delay attribution which is alleged-to require a large number of people to manage this might add more.

Although the delay minutes are known for every train you would have to guestimate the number of people on each delayed train to get the total cast.

But I'm sur it could be done.
 

[Sixty3Closure]

I'd also add the emotional impact of delays. I see it on a regular basis in my office when people turn up late after delays. Many are angry and frustrated others are upset. It's not only the missed meetings or shift start but I've found a bad journey stays with me for some of the day and probably makes me less productive or certainly less diplomatic.

[CyclingSid]

Presumably, for those with the time and inclination, some of the answers could be calculated from WebTAG.
Table 4 of the Rail Appraisal section https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/715482/tag-unit-a5-3-rail-appraisal-may-2018.pdf gives some pointers. But previous text suggests that you might need access to Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH), which is possibly not publicly available.
Glad I never have to dig this deep into it.

[froome]

I'd also add the emotional impact of delays. I see it on a regular basis in my office when people turn up late after delays. Many are angry and frustrated others are upset. It's not only the missed meetings or shift start but I've found a bad journey stays with me for some of the day and probably makes me less productive or certainly less diplomatic.

Yes definitely. There was a piece on the radio a few minutes ago about a woman who had a breakdown after it was announced on the train she was sat on that it wouldn't be stopping at her station because of delays, and she had to sit on it watching her station pass by. It was the last straw, and she went to her doctor with stress and was laid up.

[martyjon]

I'd also add the emotional impact of delays. I see it on a regular basis in my office when people turn up late after delays. Many are angry and frustrated others are upset. It's not only the missed meetings or shift start but I've found a bad journey stays with me for some of the day and probably makes me less productive or certainly less diplomatic.

Yes definitely. There was a piece on the radio a few minutes ago about a woman who had a breakdown after it was announced on the train she was sat on that it wouldn't be stopping at her station because of delays, and she had to sit on it watching her station pass by. It was the last straw, and she went to her doctor with stress and was laid up.

Yea I heard that, the missed station was Redhill.

[froome]

Interesting thoughts. Quite hard to measure but for instance would you charge a different rate for delays going to work or coming home. As aside why is one always delayed when you want to get home early?

Would you factor in those people who allegedly lost their jobs because of the Southern fiasco?

What about leisure travel would you have a different rate to business travel?.

Then there's the internal cost of delay attribution which is alleged-to require a large number of people to manage this might add more.

Although the delay minutes are known for every train you would have to guestimate the number of people on each delayed train to get the total cast.

But I'm sur it could be done.
 

I think it could actually be much simpler than that, as all that is needed is a very rough figure. It should be much simpler than the congestion on the roads, as you know roughly who is using the trains from the tickets bought, especially those on season tickets, whereas it is impossible to know who is using the roads at any one time and how they are faring. It always intrigues me how a figure for the costs of congestion on the roads is arrived at.

[Bmblbzzz]

Interesting thoughts. Quite hard to measure but for instance would you charge a different rate for delays going to work or coming home. As aside why is one always delayed when you want to get home early?

Would you factor in those people who allegedly lost their jobs because of the Southern fiasco?

What about leisure travel would you have a different rate to business travel?.

Then there's the internal cost of delay attribution which is alleged-to require a large number of people to manage this might add more.

Although the delay minutes are known for every train you would have to guestimate the number of people on each delayed train to get the total cast.

But I'm sur it could be done.
 

Sounds complicated. But if we're talking about costs to the economy then what counts is the work not done, goods not delivered in time, etc, and as calculations are already made for these in road transport, the rates are established. The value of work not done is the same whether the delayed employee is stuck on in a car or in a train.