Are we suffering now with the driver shortages so that the Jan timetable transition is less painful?
We were told last year that driver and conductor shortages at he Westbury hub and other depots working regional services there were largely the effect of compressed training for new trains (well - new to the area). That at a very senior level, and with supporting data to back up the words. And it has proven largely correct; regrettably, the failure to provide consistent services this year to the published annual timetable is for other reasons. The supporting data showed, as I recall, a continued much higher level of training that normal this year across the
GWR▸ network - though down on 2017. It didn't go into the future far enough to tell us about 2019. I would hazard an educated guess that the majority of the
crew training pain will be passed on to passengers this year.
Severe concern remain on the structure of the timetables though. They are being rewritten to allow for the performance envelopes of the
IET▸ , for through services eastwards beyond Paddington for the first time in (?) the best part of a hundred years, and to meet modified
DfT» specifications (
SLC▸ 3). And evidence suggests that timetabling resources at the companies / organisations involved are thinly spread; as well as these permanent timetable changes, they are struggling to cope with the volume of timetabling work for all the various engineering works this year.
Here are the aspect which probably come in to play
1. What is specified in the SLC
2. What works operationally
3. What will make best business sense ( highest possible number on income - expenditure )
4. What will provide services that even out passengers across the services as a whole
5. What is practical to plan within the planning resources available
6. What the existing passengers want
7. What will generate best passenger numbers for the future
There are bound to be winners and losers; those passengers making unusual journeys which are made practical because of a happenstance connection, but aren't (as a connection) used by many are likely to be the most unhappy. Past work by community groups to tweak trains by a few minutes to meet local needs - be they connections or college start and finish times - are likely to be drowned in the storm of changes. Services additional to the SLC which run because an extra train's around between runs are likely to disappear. And the time for community / passenger consultation on this is limited. I note that
SWR» held a "December 2019 timetable public consultation" at the tail end of last year, and have published reports and made changes to their plans based on inputs, but see no GWR parallel; some inputs have been made via stakeholders, but that's only a trickle of consultation and this is one that I worry may be no more that a "tick that we consulted" box. I hope I am proven wrong.