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ChrisB
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« on: March 13, 2018, 21:23:15 » |
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More 'weather' to come over the weekend,specifically Sunday pm into Monday...
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Timmer
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« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2018, 05:53:55 » |
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More 'weather' to come over the weekend,specifically Sunday pm into Monday...
Looking at latest overnight forecast model run mainly dry and cold. I’d take that. Had enough of rain. |
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ChrisB
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« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2018, 11:07:55 » |
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Check London.....most trains emanate from there/go there.
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Timmer
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« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2018, 11:31:00 » |
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Check London.....most trains emanate from there/go there.
Chris, I'd be seriously concerned if a few snow showers caused problems for trains in the London area on Sunday. The 'low risk' of significant snowfall in the South has now receded. |
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ChrisB
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« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2018, 11:38:50 » |
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You're right - wonder when the warnings were removed?
Although last night's weather for the week ahead had snow across southern UK▸ on Sunday.
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Timmer
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« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2018, 11:44:13 » |
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You're right - wonder when the warnings were removed?
Although last night's weather for the week ahead had snow across southern UK▸ on Sunday.
Yeah you could get a line of showers giving a covering more especially South East England. Won't know for sure until nearer time. It was amazing how well the last major snowfall a few weeks back was forecast with forecast models very much in agreement showing the weather system coming up from the South 7+ days out. |
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ChrisB
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« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2018, 13:47:33 » |
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Indeed....knew it was coming.
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Chris from Nailsea
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« Reply #8 on: March 14, 2018, 13:55:50 » |
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Thanks, ChrisB. I have therefore split these recent posts off into a new topic of their own. CfN.  |
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William Huskisson MP▸ was the first person to be killed by a train while crossing the tracks, in 1830. Many more have died in the same way since then. Don't take a chance: stop, look, listen.
"Level crossings are safe, unless they are used in an unsafe manner." Discuss.
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froome
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« Reply #9 on: March 14, 2018, 14:33:46 » |
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Yes the last major snowfall was very well forecasted, and I'm generally very impressed with the accuracy of most forecasts made by the Met Office now.
This weekend's forecast does seem to be ever changing. I also noticed that the snow that had been forecasted here in Bath for Sunday disappeared this morning, but now seems to have returned, with the warning for everywhere to the east from a line from Poole north through Bath to the Cotswolds. I suspect this will change in detail a few times before it actually arrives, so we'll have to wait and see.
Engineering works had already scuppered the journey we had hoped to make on Sunday, but presumably these may also be affected if it does get bad?
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TaplowGreen
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« Reply #10 on: March 14, 2018, 14:36:20 » |
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Do snow showers with a "small chance " of travel delay really constitute "severe weather - advice not to travel"?
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Timmer
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« Reply #11 on: March 14, 2018, 15:01:23 » |
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Do snow showers with a "small chance " of travel delay really constitute "severe weather - advice not to travel"?
I would say an amber 'be prepared' warning should be the trigger whether to travel or not and if you do be prepared for disruption to your journey. |
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TaplowGreen
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« Reply #12 on: March 14, 2018, 15:23:25 » |
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Do snow showers with a "small chance " of travel delay really constitute "severe weather - advice not to travel"?
I would say an amber 'be prepared' warning should be the trigger whether to travel or not and if you do be prepared for disruption to your journey. I agree, we reach for the panic button far too readily these days. |
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didcotdean
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« Reply #13 on: March 14, 2018, 16:06:02 » |
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If you look at the 'Chief Forecaster Assessment', the phrasing is: As this air crosses the North Sea snow showers will form on Sunday, and could well merge into convergence lines producing 2-5 cms of snow in places. This is most likely near the Thames estuary and the Wash, and these snow showers could then spread westwards. All fairly low level stuff, at the 'be aware' level. The models still are a bit divergent for Sunday. |
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TonyK
Global Moderator
Hero Member
Posts: 6594
The artist formerly known as Four Track, Now!
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« Reply #14 on: March 14, 2018, 17:03:47 » |
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Do snow showers with a "small chance " of travel delay really constitute "severe weather - advice not to travel"?
I would say an amber 'be prepared' warning should be the trigger whether to travel or not and if you do be prepared for disruption to your journey. Aviation reports come with a probability figure. Commercial pilots generally ignore anything under 30%. The question for the railway is different - is it a small chance of snow, or a chance of a small snowfall? |
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