Snow in February 2018 affects services for up to 4 days

[whole diary]

[grahame]

Oh help - I failed to note the site / URL for my source on this:

Here’s how it’s all looking so far for Monday evening and night.

South Eastern - Passengers are advised to complete journeys by 6pm to try and avoid disruption.

C2C – Reduced services to run after 9pm with some cancellations. No services from Liverpool Street or Stratford. A reduced timetable is planned for Tuesday.

Greater Anglia – No services after 10pm and only a limited service in operation from 6am until 10pm on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Stansted Express – No services from Liverpool Street after 10.25pm on Monday. Services from Stansted Airport back to London are cancelled from 11.30pm.

Great Northern - No trains between London and Cambridge after 10.04 on Monday. A heavily reduced timetable will be in place on Tuesday.

TfL^» (Transport for London - about) rail - No services from 11pm Monday until 7am on Tuesday.

Thameslink, Gatwick Express, Southern - Disruption to services is expected on Monday and may continue on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Passengers are advised services may also be cancelled by early evening.

And from s Southern passenger site (ABC) commenting on it:

No surprise there. It’s much more ‘cost effective’ to cancel services due to ‘adverse’ weather than ...

I have to admit as to being puzzled at the potential of four days of disruption on one TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company) when the ones all around them are alerting for a maximum of two.   Are Southern the only ones being realistic, are they being opportunistic, or is Hayward's Heath the eye of the snowstorm?

[Timmer]

Any excuse not to run trains and blame the weather. Feel for exasperated commuters in the South East and East England. Yes there’s been snow in places but not everywhere.

[TaplowGreen]

I take it the Trans SiberIan is running as usual despite a bit of snow?

[froome]

I have to admit as to being puzzled at the potential of four days of disruption on one TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company) when the ones all around them are alerting for a maximum of two.   Are Southern the only ones being realistic, are they being opportunistic, or is Hayward's Heath the eye of the snowstorm?

To be fair to Southern, the forecast for all of southern England on Thursday, inc much of GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) land, is dreadful (and for Friday), so they may actually be being more realistic. In fact, on Friday, I suspect GWR will be particularly hard hit, which doesn't help my own travel plans for that day. 

[grahame]

I have to admit as to being puzzled at the potential of four days of disruption on one TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company) when the ones all around them are alerting for a maximum of two.   Are Southern the only ones being realistic, are they being opportunistic, or is Hayward's Heath the eye of the snowstorm?

To be fair to Southern, the forecast for all of southern England on Thursday, inc much of GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) land, is dreadful (and for Friday), so they may actually be being more realistic. In fact, on Friday, I suspect GWR will be particularly hard hit, which doesn't help my own travel plans for that day. 

I thought I was being fair offering the options that they're the realistic one. Time will tell, and even then it's based on probabilities and approximations.   

Personally having Southampton on Friday, Taunton on Saturday and on to Manchester for Sunday, Pewsey on Monday and up and down between Swindon and Warminster on Tuesday and Wednesday, Bath on Thursday and Chippenham on Friday of next week, I can't help wondering how I might get on ...

[ChrisB]

Thursday/Friday does appear to be atrocious weather, but the orange warning today has always been for Kent, not Essex. Greater Anglian spokeslady on Breakfast hasjust said that there was aforecast NR^» (Network Rail - home page) received for 30cm of snow in Essex. Thats a foot of snow. NR need asking who supplied that forecast, coz its not materialised, & indeed the well-known forecasters haven't made anything like that forecast for Essex

I do think that TravelWatch SouthWest ought to be considering whether to cancel Saturday already....asking people of average ages (mostly retired & some with disability) to travel for what is really an unnecessary meeting is sensible looking at Fridays forecast...those on Advsnce tickets need to get them changed *before* date of travel or lose them.

Im sure cancelling the meeting won't change anyones work or leisure life...its for info only.

The forecast for Sunday onwards isfor higher temperatures ad a thaw....

[Timmer]

Thursday/Friday does appear to be atrocious weather, but the orange warning today has always been for Kent, not Essex. Greater Anglian spokeslady on Breakfast hasjust said that there was aforecast NR^» (Network Rail - home page) received for 30cm of snow in Essex. Thats a foot of snow. NR need asking who supplied that forecast, coz its not materialised, & indeed the well-known forecasters haven't made anything like that forecast for Essex

Just gone through the radar from last night and it looks like Norfolk/Suffolk and Essex saw very few snow showers with Kent and East Sussex where the main snow is currently falling right where the Met put the Amber warning so good forecasting by them 

[TaplowGreen]

.............whereas in most other countries people just shrug their shoulders, put on an extra layer and get on with it, and the system doesn't seem to collapse like ours at the first sign of a snowflake.

[didcotdean]

An archived forecast (taken from an American based site!) issued last Friday says (my bolding):

A yellow snow warning has been issued in the U.K. for next week.  Starting at 2pm on Monday in eastern England before spreading to cover large parts of the country on Tuesday and Wednesday.  The effects will be localized and the worst areas could see up to 8 inches in total, whilst other areas will hardly see any.

So no foot of snow, but very hit and miss, which I guess makes it difficult to plan. Eastern England is fairly vague, but the forecasts firmed up on areas a bit later. In reality much of it appears further north than originally predicted.

Thursday and Friday has been more problematic as models haven't agreed on extent and area of snow, and have flip-flopped internally from run to run as well. For example some have pushed the bulk more westwards falling over Ireland. What does seem more likely now is that the cold weather could be all over by the end of the weekend, rather than extending further.

[TaplowGreen]

An archived forecast (taken from an American based site!) issued last Friday says (my bolding):

A yellow snow warning has been issued in the U.K. for next week.  Starting at 2pm on Monday in eastern England before spreading to cover large parts of the country on Tuesday and Wednesday.  The effects will be localized and the worst areas could see up to 8 inches in total, whilst other areas will hardly see any.

So no foot of snow, but very hit and miss, which I guess makes it difficult to plan. Eastern England is fairly vague, but the forecasts firmed up on areas a bit later. In reality much of it appears further north than originally predicted.

Thursday and Friday has been more problematic as models haven't agreed on extent and area of snow, and have flip-flopped internally from run to run as well. For example some have pushed the bulk more westwards falling over Ireland. What does seem more likely now is that the cold weather could be all over by the end of the weekend, rather than extending further.

Check out @networkrail’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/networkrail/status/968168809340190721?s=09

NR^» (Network Rail - home page) suggesting that all of 2 inches of snow will be sufficient......

"as much as 5-10cm in places" 

[Sixty3Closure]

I got the now standard sarcastic texts from my sister in Scotland about a 'bit of snow'. They've had snow on a fairly regular basis since November but doesn't fill up the news headlines.

[didcotdean]

They wouldn't have got the classic 'wrong type of snow' as this is 

I can recall a few years back everything grinding to a halt when I was in Frankfurt for 2cm of snow.

[grahame]

I do think that TravelWatch SouthWest ought to be considering whether to cancel Saturday already....asking people of average ages (mostly retired & some with disability) to travel for what is really an unnecessary meeting is sensible looking at Fridays forecast...those on Advsnce tickets need to get them changed *before* date of travel or lose them.

I'm sure you shared these thoughts with the secretary / chair?  That way they'll be able to take on board the member view and situation.    I am not a meteorologist - but it does look to me as is the main issues will be in the South East rather than the South West - and TWSW^» (TravelWatch SouthWest - website)'s covers Swindon to Penzance.   Clearly some of the transport that people use is trains from London, but we really shouldn't cancel / postpone a SW meeting because of weather in the next area across ...

[LiskeardRich]

Trains in Cornwall have frozen to a halt.

Some points on the camborne area reportedly frozen

[LiskeardRich]

I do think that TravelWatch SouthWest ought to be considering whether to cancel Saturday already....asking people of average ages (mostly retired & some with disability) to travel for what is really an unnecessary meeting is sensible looking at Fridays forecast...those on Advsnce tickets need to get them changed *before* date of travel or lose them.

I'm sure you shared these thoughts with the secretary / chair?  That way they'll be able to take on board the member view and situation.    I am not a meteorologist - but it does look to me as is the main issues will be in the South East rather than the South West - and TWSW^» (TravelWatch SouthWest - website)'s covers Swindon to Penzance.   Clearly some of the transport that people use is trains from London, but we really shouldn't cancel / postpone a SW meeting because of weather in the next area across ...

The weather forecast I’ve just seen said turning mild in the southwest on Friday, that’ll melt anything that may happen!