East Coast rail franchise - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[didcotdean]

This is an interesting read, the assessment of the forward short term options:.

Puts the growth blame partially on external factors such as fuel prices being lower so people choosing to drive, but also on VTEC 'business intiatives' not delivering.

LNER^» (London North Eastern Railway - about) also will be 'A new, publically-owned brand that will become the long-term face of the railway for those who work on it and use it'.

[martyjon]

Puts the growth blame partially on external factors such as fuel prices being lower so people choosing to drive ....

Wouldn't be the high walk-on fares, reservations not being honoured, overcrowding and cheaper by air by any chance for the reasons why people choose to drive.

I know its not East Coast but I can fly to Glasgow and back from Bristol (including city to airports bus services) cheaper than travelling by rail so I expect the same applies between London and Edinburgh.

[CyclingSid]

"Fuel prices being lower" presumably having nothing to do with the fact that government hasn't implemented the road fuel escalator for how long?

[didcotdean]

To some extent there seems to be a veil being drawn over the whole modelling of the passenger growth figures assumptions which were built as much into the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) tender as the bidders' responses.

If you think the DfT is being too bullish you won't win a bidding round with lower assumptions.

Never been clear to me why there has been so much great expectations of revenue out of the East Coast line over the years as none of the franchises have come off too well (and DOR was a no-investment period). Even come to think of it back to the original LNER^» (London North Eastern Railway - about), which never seemed to make any money, certainly out of passengers. It seems a route very susecptable to the mood of the economy.

[broadgage]

Can't help wondering how much worse GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) has to get, before Graying considers it a prime candidate for DoR

I cant see this happening.
Remember that the various East coast franchises have not been ended due to poor performance, customers were generally happier than on FGW^▸ (First Great Western), Connex, Thameslink, and others.
The franchises ended because the operators were loosing money and have gone bust had they continued.

The FGW/GWR failings would have to get a lot worse before they get kicked out for poor performance. And SOME of the problems are due to network rail who are a government department in all but name.

[devonexpress]

My main issue is will they paint the trains LNER^» (London North Eastern Railway - about) green    I doubt the HST^▸ (High Speed Train)/91 Sets will but hopefully the 800s will as LNER will become the standard brand no matter who runs it by the sound of it. My own little take on it: https://www.flickr.com/photos/138348092@N04/27284384227/in/datetaken-public/

It starting to sound more like the government want to put the railways back to pre 1948, still owned by the public, but managed by a board, hopefully the stupid franchise model will end so we get a long term plan.

VTEC's main issue was at the start of the franchise, is went flashing the cash everywhere to show off and then along with other factors ran out of money pretty soon. I do think that Great Northern services should merge back into LNER and Arriva Rail North should be broke up and the York & Newcastle services transferred to LNER.   Scotrail won't be able to as it is controlled by the Scottish Parliament of course.

[didcotdean]

My main issue is will they paint the trains LNER^» (London North Eastern Railway - about) green    

With the carriages wrapped in teak-coloured vinyls ...

[grahame]

If we have an LNER^» (London North Eastern Railway - about) and a GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) ... how long before we have a Southern and a London Midland Scottish?   Perhaps it would be an idea to have just four big franchises to run from 1st January 2023?

[chopper1944]

I agree that privatisation should have been based upon the "big 4" of 1923. There are far too many franchises. How about Chiltern becoming enlarged to GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway)?

[JayMac]

If we have an LNER^» (London North Eastern Railway - about) and a GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) ... how long before we have a Southern and a London Midland Scottish?   Perhaps it would be an idea to have just four big franchises to run from 1st January 2023?

We already have a Southern.

[grahame]

If we have an LNER^» (London North Eastern Railway - about) and a GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) ... how long before we have a Southern and a London Midland Scottish?   Perhaps it would be an idea to have just four big franchises to run from 1st January 2023?

We already have a Southern.

Yes   

[Timmer]

The Times reporting this morning that four other franchises could be in trouble, the same four that have been mentioned before:

SWR^» (South Western Railway - about)
Transpennine
Northern
Greater Anglia

[TaplowGreen]

The Times reporting this morning that four other franchises could be in trouble, the same four that have been mentioned before:

SWR^» (South Western Railway - about)
Transpennine
Northern
Greater Anglia

When one considers how spectacularly awful GWRs^▸ (Great Western Railway) performance has been over the last year or so, you can only contemplate those 4 with a mixture of horror and relief if you don't have to use them, and incredulity that GWR don't make the list too................I guess it may go some way to explaining why Hopwood et al got the gong for "Rail Operator of the Year", on the basis that they are slightly less awful than the rest, and/or are still raking in enough cash for all of the significant stakeholders to look the other way?

[ray951]

Those other 4 TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company)'s are probably in trouble for financial reasons, i.e. they have overbid and passenger growth has not been as strong as they predicated.
That is different from GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) who 'are in trouble' because they don't have enough trains and/or staff and therefore have not been able to provide a very satisfactory service.

[broadgage]

Those other 4 TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company)'s are probably in trouble for financial reasons, i.e. they have overbid and passenger growth has not been as strong as they predicated.
That is different from GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) who 'are in trouble' because they don't have enough trains and/or staff and therefore have not been able to provide a very satisfactory service.

Agree entirely.
I feel that some people are confusing poor performance from the PASSENGERS point of view, with a poor FINANCIAL  performance.
The two are very different, though either would be grounds for concern.

GWR are doing very poorly from the passenger service point of view, simply look at the endless problems reported elsewhere on these forums. But AFAIK^▸ (as far as I know) they are not in danger of going bust.

SWR^» (South Western Railway - about), by contrast are doing better from the passengers point of view. There is always room for improvement of course but as regards the percentage of trains that are short formed/cancelled/part cancelled they are doing better than GWR.
SWR are however reportedly in financial trouble.