As a newcomer to this forum, I am quite genuinely shocked by the amount of cancellations. I commuted on Chiltern for many years -- not always perfect, but actual cancellations were very rare. On GWR▸ they seem almost a daily occurrence. I'm puzzled by the 'fault on this train' excuse. Can GWR's trains be far more 'faulty' than Chiltern's? Or is it the interpretation of what constitutes a 'fault' -- and who is deciding? Sorry if these questions seem a bit naive!
David - this forum is so much about answering the questions that everyone wonders about - delighted you have asked and many more can read the answers that will follow. I may well split this thread as it's of far more general interest that just on the Cotswolds.
Let me try an amateur's answer ... but these days I'm an informed amateur.
1. Equipment tends to be at its least reliable when it's very new (teething troubles) or old (wearing out) and GWR are moving from being the oldest fleet to (in parts) one of the newest at present - the worst of both worlds, with
HSTs▸ in their twighlight being replaced by newborn
IETs▸ 2. GWR has a massive area to cover, and rather than spread grief evenly if things go wrong, they may rob one line to run a service on another. I was at a conference in June where they talked of four lines - the Heart of Wessex, the Severn Beach, the TransWilts and the North Cotswold, which had suffered a disproportionate amount of problems; Chiltern being smaller don't have such a flexibility to move misery around
3. With new fleets coming in, depots closing and new ones being opened by different contractors, maintenance staff don't exactly feel secure. So someone invites them to a new and more secure job ... and you're left with a shortage of experience to be looking after the trains at the very time they're getting old
4. Traffic has grown far more that was expected in the last decade, so there are fewer spare trains around; where int he past having 2 or 3 awaiting repair might not have been an issue, now it certainly is. And franchises are deigned to be as lean on resources as is practical.
5. With modern trains getting more complex, and modern health and safety being very much more fussy, more trains are likely to be declared failures (or not signed off for use) than used to be the case.
6. HSTs in particular were never designed for all the stop-start working they're called on to do these days - they're expresses for occasional stops. Perhaps that place undue wear on them?
Now - let's see which of those the professionals agree with and which they tell me are complete tosh!