First jumping the gun again? Surely better to wait until the new trains are in operation.
Maybe, but the only bit of variable income
FGW▸ has any influence over is that earnt by getting the extra seats filled as soon as possible after they are introduced.
The 20% extra capacity is predicted to be used up within 6 or 7 years due to the general growth in rail travel. The income generated from it will have already been factored into the franchise bid. First only makes extra profit by increasing passengers carried
ahead of the predictions which means within the first year of so of the new stock (and the last year or so the old franchise). A cynic would say that if they carry a couple of thousand people now before the new capacity arrives then that is income straight to the bottom line even if the customers never travel again due to overcrowding.