Widespread Ryanair cancellations from September 2017 until March 2018

[whole diary]

[JayMac]

Only engineered in the sense that Monarch were competing in a highly competitive short haul market. They had lost a lot of business to areas where they had little competition - Turkey and Egypt - due to political instability. The weak pound also contributed. Their income was in sterling, but their expenditure was in dollars (lease fees and fuel) and euros (airport charges). A perfect storm.

Yes, Ryanair and other airlines will pick up additional business. Passengers. Assets. Slots. But that's not a conspiracy.

Monarch themselves had profited from the bankruptcy of other airlines throughout their history. British Eagle, Court Line, Laker Airways. Passenger air transport is a ruthless business.

[ChrisB]

Another failure by Hedge Funds who think they can make a (quick) buck but find they can't once they've picked it up.....always beware once the company you work for falls into a hedge funds hands.

[JayMac]

Greybull Capital is not a hedge fund. It's almost entirely the money of two families. Stumping up £165m to keep a business going is not the action of those looking to make a quick buck. Greybull say they are medium to long term investors.

[ChrisB]

So how long had they owned it? About 3 years?

Stumping up £165m is peanuts if you're hoping/expecting to sell it on for three times that. And they were acting just like a hedge fund - certainly not in for the long-haul

[didcotdean]

Monarch became a jack of all trades and a master of none. It never had the cost base to run purel as a low-cost airline; indeed some estimate its crew costs to be greater than that of the Gatwick BA^» (British Airways - about) crews as it has a lot of long-serving and hence well-experienced personnel. There ought to be a niche to be a 'middle-class' carrier giving better service which Monarch used to aspire to, but price today seems to be all, and no one trying that model has made a success of it.

[JayMac]

So how long had they owned it? About 3 years?

Stumping up £165m is peanuts if you're hoping/expecting to sell it on for three times that. And they were acting just like a hedge fund - certainly not in for the long-haul

That's what investment is. Making a return. Making the business profitable. Securing the future of the business. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

You're right about the long-haul though. Had they gone into that market as a no frills operator instead of competing with Ryanair and EasyJet on European short haul, they may have survived. Norwegian Air have shown that long haul no frills is viable.

[chrisr_75]

Only engineered in the sense that Monarch were competing in a highly competitive short haul market. They had lost a lot of business to areas where they had little competition - Turkey and Egypt - due to political instability. The weak pound also contributed. Their income was in sterling, but their expenditure was in dollars (lease fees and fuel) and euros (airport charges). A perfect storm.

Yes, Ryanair and other airlines will pick up additional business. Passengers. Assets. Slots. But that's not a conspiracy.

Monarch themselves had profited from the bankruptcy of other airlines throughout their history. British Eagle, Court Line, Laker Airways. Passenger air transport is a ruthless business.

Engineered only in the sense that the downfall of Monarch was foreseen by O'Leary who took a bit of a punt on it being a potential bail out for his current problems. I wouldn't put that past him.

I wasn't suggesting any conspiracy theories or that he would try anything idiotic to actually bring the airline down by nefarious means. Just shrewd business acumen.

[stuving]

Another failure by Hedge Funds who think they can make a (quick) buck but find they can't once they've picked it up.....always beware once the company you work for falls into a hedge funds hands.

No, not a hedge fund - they don't run companies, they try to invest in a way that reduces risk to themselves. I think you mean private equity, which is the business of buying companies, shaking them up, and selling at a profit. Their methods include not just "normal" management of the business, but often pretty much classic asset stripping - sale and leaseback of property, loading the company with debt and paying yourselves (as the company has been taken private and has no other shareholders), etc. That is really increasing risk, as the  nett value of the business is reduced to close to zero and it doesn't take a lot to push it below that. Mind you, that's what Kingfisher did to Woolworths, so those methods aren't confined to disreputable short-term operators.

[ChrisB]

I do, you're right, thank you. Invest in companies they know nothing about, make a pigs ear of managing them, and find they go bust. I wonder why they bother sometimes.

[TonyK]

There are some crazy price offerings from Ryanair already. I would take advantage if there was a gap in my dairy.

Monarch was a tenth of the size of Ryanair, which is Europe's biggest airline by pax numbers, and has probably the youngest fleet. Having started with an Embraer turboprop, the airline has turned into a multi-national operation. Being nasty to staff and passengers has been part of its modus operandi since. I'm not sure it will serve it well in the future, although cheap and nasty is more appealing than dear and nice.

[Trowres]

There are some crazy price offerings from Ryanair already. I would take advantage if there was a gap in my dairy.

What's the going rate for Jersey to Bristol, economy class bovine?

[Thatcham Crossing]

Very sad to see Monarch's demise, but it does seem that their management were sleepwalking towards this day. Failed to adapt and re-positioned themselves as a scheduled low-cost airline, but with the high cost-base that the likes of Easyjet and Ryanair don't have. Those guys also have scale (along with bases all over Europe), which Monarch didn't have either. For sure, the dramatic fall in traffic to some of their biggest markets (Egypt, Turkey) was a factor, but it was only a factor.

Ryanair are already inviting former Monarch pilots to come and talk to them in Manchester on Wednesday (although whether they would pay for type-ratings conversions for Monarch's Airbus-only pilots to their Boeings is another matter!), and other Airbus operators such as BA^» (British Airways - about) and Easyjet will no doubt take some of them.

Monarch also had an open order with Boeing for 30+ new 737MAX aircraft, which was going to see them switch allegience from Airbus (never a cheap thing for an airline to do) and there had been speculation in recent days (prior to last nights announcement) that an airline interested in picking-up these orders (eg, Norwegian) might step in. Seems too late for that now, sadly.

[LiskeardRich]

The CAA^» (Civil Aviation Authority - about) obviously thought there wasn't much likelihood of Monarch's survival - indeed they effectively jacked up their prices so much at the weekend that no sensible person would have booked with them since Friday which may have been part of the management of the situation. 

The CAA held the key, monarchs operating licence was due to run out on 30th sept, and CAA were not renewing it due to financial standing. The CAA extended it by 24 hours. The cynic in me suspects that was so they could sort out relief flights.

[John R]

I think that's correct. Else there would have been a 24/48 hr period when passengers abroad were left in limbo.

The situation does appear to have been managed as effectively as it could have been given the circumstances. Maybe the person responsible could be seconded to GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) to help them sort out the tricky job of running all its services on a day to day basis.

[chrisr_75]

I think that's correct. Else there would have been a 24/48 hr period when passengers abroad were left in limbo.

The situation does appear to have been managed as effectively as it could have been given the circumstances. Maybe the person responsible could be seconded to GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) to help them sort out the tricky job of running all its services on a day to day basis.

Ah, but there is an award winning MD at the helm as we type, surely no one could possibly do a better job than he with the acrylic trophy?