The Annual Fare rise

[whole diary]

[grahame]

Timetable changes always used to be May & September. The EU^» (European Union - about) imposed the December change to bring us in line with the rest of Europe

For UK^▸ (United Kingdom) seasonality, May and September make sense, and smaller changes will can still be introduced then.

[stuving]

Timetable changes always used to be May & September. The EU^» (European Union - about) imposed the December change to bring us in line with the rest of Europe

For UK^▸ (United Kingdom) seasonality, May and September make sense, and smaller changes will can still be introduced then.

And German timetables also used to switch in May and September. But for some changes those are the wrong times of year, here or elsewhere. And French timetables are full of trains running only on listed of dates, and other irregularities. And the 2000 UK timetable book (26 Sept to 27 May) had loads of timetables with other change dates in them.

So maybe it's a bit more complicated. What is it that comes in in December? Is it a timetable (the same each day) or a timetable (a set of daily timetables covering a year or half-year, which can have changes at any date)?

[TaplowGreen]

Lots of other services and routes will be longer and/or have more seats due to increased frequencies within the next few years.  For example, all of the suburban services on the GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) at the Paddington end are changing from 2-6 car trains to 8 or 9 car trains within the next few years. 

If you're referring to Crossrail, how does that justify GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) raising their fares on suburban routes?

By how much are Paddington-Reading suburban services being lengthened in the next year or two?

The impression I get is that at best, they will be running to stand still capacity wise......and there are still huge deficiencies in Customer Service, to say nothing of the much vaunted new signalling systems which seem less reliable, and the endlessly delayed electrification (and yes I know that much of this is down to NR^» (Network Rail - home page), but it's still the customers who are paying the fares) - if fare increases were linked to combined NR/TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company) all round performance KPIs and customer satisfaction, you may just notice that it creates a catalyst for more rapid improvement.

A prime example being GWR's appalling delays in responses to correspondence.....I have now been waiting almost 3 months for a response to a basic query - it has been escalated to Hopwood, one of his flunkies informed me recently that I "should" receive a response "within a few more weeks" - that may seem like a minor issue to some, but it's symptomatic of a wider, complacent apathy within a business.

[grahame]

By how much are Paddington-Reading suburban services being lengthened in the next year or two?

class 387
45 * 4 = 180 carriages

Class 165
16 * 3 + 20 * 2 = 88 carriages
Class 166
21 * 3 = 63 carriages

So replacing 151 by 180, but need to retain:
12 carriages for branches off Paddington to Reading
20 carriages for Reading to Gatwick
8 carriages for Didcot to Oxford shuttle
= 40 carriages

Suggest 2 & 3 car trains up to 4 cars; 5 & 6 car trains up to 8 cars on London - Reading - Didcot, London - Reading - Newbury, and shorter runs within that area.

I understand we might see peak hour 387 trains from Swindon to Paddington, and with the loss of Oxford and Henley electrification at this stage there may be logic in using 387s on other services west from Didcot to the limits of elecrification; there might be operational logic in running the trains that stop more from Paddington and terminate at Cardiff with 387s, and the trains with fewer stops in England with 80x units.

387s to Chippenham seems operationally risky having to turn them on the main line, but there would be some logic in that with a re-instatement of the bay platform; reverting to the previous layout at Chippenham, with the island being (from north) London services and bay(s) and the platform by the station buildings being the main westbound line would make some sense, now that almost everything calls and so the high speed non-stop capability is virtually unused.

This is an educated guess, by the way ... others may have better figures to offer.

[grahame]

The impression I get is that at best, they will be running to stand still capacity wise......

Some "back of fag packet" calculations ...

Call it currently 40% overcrowded and 60% increase in capacity - so new trains will be running initially at 87.5% capacity.  Growth of 4% per annum puts them back to running at capacity in 3 years. But that's in theory; remember Crossrail will be providing extra capacity from May 2018 on the inner suburbs (replacing the Hayes and Harlington shuttle) and from December 2019 to Reading. The dates there are quoted as a "planning assumption" on the Crossrail site.

[JayMac]

Timetable changes always used to be May & September. The EU^» (European Union - about) imposed the December change to bring us in line with the rest of Europe

For UK^▸ (United Kingdom) seasonality, May and September make sense, and smaller changes will can still be introduced then.

The EU directive isn't imposed. There's nothing stopping any nation having their own timetable change dates, provided international traffic isn't affected. If international traffic is affected then the EU Commission merely has to be informed. The UK in fact only follows one part of the directive - the December change. The directive says that subsidiary changes should be made on the second Sunday in June. The UK makes theirs in May.

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:32002D0844:EN:HTML

[Tim]

d) With passenger journeys having doubled in the past 20 years, but with only 15% more rolling stock on the lines, isn't there a huge efficiency saving?   

That is the key statistic for me.  And the key challenge that the ToCs, and governments (of all colours) have failed to crack. 

[IndustryInsider]

Lots of other services and routes will be longer and/or have more seats due to increased frequencies within the next few years.  For example, all of the suburban services on the GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) at the Paddington end are changing from 2-6 car trains to 8 or 9 car trains within the next few years. 

If you're referring to Crossrail, how does that justify GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) raising their fares on suburban routes?

By how much are Paddington-Reading suburban services being lengthened in the next year or two?

The impression I get is that at best, they will be running to stand still capacity wise......and there are still huge deficiencies in Customer Service, to say nothing of the much vaunted new signalling systems which seem less reliable, and the endlessly delayed electrification (and yes I know that much of this is down to NR^» (Network Rail - home page), but it's still the customers who are paying the fares) - if fare increases were linked to combined NR/TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company) all round performance KPIs and customer satisfaction, you may just notice that it creates a catalyst for more rapid improvement.

A prime example being GWR's appalling delays in responses to correspondence.....I have now been waiting almost 3 months for a response to a basic query - it has been escalated to Hopwood, one of his flunkies informed me recently that I "should" receive a response "within a few more weeks" - that may seem like a minor issue to some, but it's symptomatic of a wider, complacent apathy within a business.

I was merely replying to Broadgage's previous post where he suggested that infrastructure improvements and new trains generally result in fewer carriages and less capacity.  The three examples he cited were from 15-25 years ago when the railway was operating under very different circumstances.

As regarding your comments on the suburban trains though, an all-day Hayes to Paddington service started today which means an additional 32 trains per day in each direction from Hayes and Southall which works out at 256 carriages worth per weekday in each direction on what was offered at this time last year.  The service from West Ealing, Ealing Broadway and Acton Main Line is no more frequent but the longer trains mean an additional 192 carriages per day.

Then, all being well, we have 8-car electric trains on Maidenhead peak trains next May, and an all day electric service between Didcot and Paddington due to commence from December or very early 2018.

Finally, although the Crossrail service proper doesn't start until late 2019, the Heathrow Connect service is due to change from 5-car trains to the new Class 345 Crossrail trains which are 9-car in length in May 2018.  Another big boost for capacity on the busiest section between Hayes/Southall and Ealing/Paddington.

So, whilst making no attempt to justify fares increases on what has been a pretty awful last three years, finally the improvements are actually coming on stream.  It's been an immensely frustrating wait for everyone.

[JayMac]

2.3%? Pah!

My Weekly Somerset Network bus ticket on Buses of Somerset (FirstGroup) has gone up from £15 to £25. A 66% increase.

BoS argument is that the previous price was a special offer because there was competition from Webberbus. Having seen off that competition in late summer they say they've held the Season prices as long as they could.

When Webberbus went First took over some routes. My new hometown, Langport, kept its two buses an hour to Taunton, with, in the other direction, one going to Street and one to Yeovil. First have now cut the service so that there's just an hourly service between Taunton and Yeovil.

So I have a service cut in real terms and a massive fares hike. Thanks First!

[grahame]

2.3%? Pah!

My Weekly Somerset Network bus ticket on Buses of Somerset (FirstGroup) has gone up from £15 to £25. A 66% increase.

Other bus companies putting up prices too ... but there's no central database of bus fares (and indeed many bus fares aren't even online) so it's hard to make a headline story. 

Via http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=17828.0 I have already noted "Wiltshire Council have authorised an increase in fares on their contracted services equating to approximately 10% to assist with the shortfall in funding we are currently experiencing and to ensure the longer term viability of these supported services." and if that's applied county-wide it's a 10% rise across about a half of the bus routes. 

Via the same link, "Fares will increase by up to 50p on single and return tickets with multi journey tickets changing accordingly. The changes have been made to address recent increases in operational costs, which includes the hidden costs associated with worsening congestion across the region." is again an increase of (my estimate) around 10%, but bus fares (unlike rail fares) aren't limited to a single annual rise; I recall prices rising for people using the bus to get from Chippenham and Corsham to their local main hospital (the RUH in Bath) last summer when the Chippenham to Bath route moved from being competitively run to a monopoly.

Late last year's news, but typical National Express prices from Melksham to London doubled a couple of months back - which now makes super off peak rail with Groupsave the cheapest way for groups to make the journey, as well as being [advert]quicker and more frequent[/advert]

[Adelante_CCT]

So replacing 151 by 180, but need to retain

Whilst I am looking forward to the mass introduction of the 387s, don't forget that a 3 car turbo has more seats than a four car 387, so it's not all about the number of carriages.

20 carriages for Reading to Gatwick

That's at present, more would be required when the enhanced services start, (unless only using 2 cars) + 6 cars required for Basingstoke shuttles.

[grahame]

So replacing 151 by 180, but need to retain

Whilst I am looking forward to the mass introduction of the 387s, don't forget that a 3 car turbo has more seats than a four car 387, so it's not all about the number of carriages.

20 carriages for Reading to Gatwick

That's at present, more would be required when the enhanced services start, (unless only using 2 cars) + 6 cars required for Basingstoke shuttles.

Perhaps I discounted 20% of seats on the 16x units because they're the middle of 3 seats that no-one likes sitting in.  But then I'm shooting myself in the foot by saying that and looking forward to them providing more seating on Cardiff - Portsmouth ...

I thought about Basingstoke in my original post. My logic in not counting them was that there currently run with 150/0 units and whilst 6 carriages of 16x may be retained at Reading for them, that will release 6 carriages of 150/0 out westward so I think the maths stay the same and I've just simplified the arithmetic by not taking out and adding in the same numbers. 

I didn't include any retention beyond Oxford for Banbury (potentially an oversight on my part) or the north cotswolds (should become universally 5 coach IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.)?). And I'm aware of a release of between 4 or 5 carriages between Swindon and Cheltenham Spa when IEP comes in there and the service that currently a local one becomes mainline; two of those carriages are the 'spot hire' unit that comes off the Salisbury depot each day and I suspect that arrangement would come to an end. 

[Henry]

 I sympathise with anyone, especially those who commute daily whilst on a 'minimum wage'.
 So the bold statement by Chris Grayling, 'wages rising faster than rail fares' left me questioning
 this defence of fare increases.
 I heard it a second time on our local news, that I have to ask. how many of us have actually had
 a 2% increase on our salary ?

[grahame]

So the bold statement by Chris Grayling, 'wages rising faster than rail fares' left me questioning
 this defence of fare increases.

Perhaps he's been selectively quoted "minimum wages rising faster than rail fares"?
http://www.minimum-wage.co.uk

Look hard enough for a statistic to prove a point and you'll find one!

[didcotdean]

Latest figure of ONS^» (Office for National Statistics - website) in average growth of take home earnings is for the year to October - 2.5%