End of trial period

[whole diary]

[grahame]

And not a bad figure for a Friday, which is usually quieter for commuters.  I guess it's the fact that loadings are so strong at MKM^» (Melksham (Station code) - next trains) now that made me think that a service turning round there would be viable.  Using your slightly later timing would also mean it would probably be more convenient for commuters, and would also provide a useful additional service between SWI^» (Swindon - next trains) and CPM^» (Chippenham - next trains) to take some of the load off the following Bristol service.

Indeed the case gets stronger as passenger numbers keep growing ... but we need to be careful to ensure we're neither abstracting too much from other trains, nor causing other problems.

Traffic ...

I suspect that a 16:48 Swindon to Melksham would pull some traffic off the 17:36, but in that case it's an advantage as that train's currently so busy that people are being put off using it.   So pulling (say) 20 Melksham passengers off the 17:36 and (say) 10 off the 15:12 - which is also very busy (getting to "full and standing") would be the sort of abstraction I would expect.         

New traffic would be generated too, and bearing in mind the departure time from Swindon I would think round trips would typically leave Melksham on the 07:20 - good, because that's already 2 cars too/

The 17:20 Melksham to Swindon is a real peach for an afternoon departure for people working in the town / near to the station.   This is a slowly building traffic; we're noticing it for staff from several of the local employers.   There's an issue with incoming commuters as the morning trains arrive at 06:38 or 09:15, so the 17:20 is only a half of a solution.

We probably need of the order of 50 new single journeys per day to justify the trip with a 2 car train, and I suspect that my figures above work out of that order.

[John R]

I wonder whether we are underestimating the demand if times could be more convenient.  Many office employers (such as mine) require a 7 hour day, thus 8 including a lunch break.  So those working within a couple of minutes of SWI^» (Swindon - next trains) station, even arriving on the later train can be at their desk at 0830, and will be ready to go by 1630.   Kicking their heels for an hour every evening isn't attractive, whereas a departure at 1648 would be absolutely spot on.

From CPM^» (Chippenham - next trains) the effect is even greater.  It's a long day if you arrive around 0800 and don't leave until 1753.

So I suspect it would encourage a lot of extra traffic over time, and not just on the earlier morning train.  It could be a useful precursor to a more frequent service in coming years, having already started to build a base of traffic from MKM^» (Melksham (Station code) - next trains).   

[grahame]

I wonder whether we are underestimating the demand if times could be more convenient.  Many office employers (such as mine) require a 7 hour day, thus 8 including a lunch break.  So those working within a couple of minutes of SWI^» (Swindon - next trains) station, even arriving on the later train can be at their desk at 0830, and will be ready to go by 1630.   Kicking their heels for an hour every evening isn't attractive, whereas a departure at 1648 would be absolutely spot on.

From CPM^» (Chippenham - next trains) the effect is even greater.  It's a long day if you arrive around 0800 and don't leave until 1753.

So I suspect it would encourage a lot of extra traffic over time, and not just on the earlier morning train.  It could be a useful precursor to a more frequent service in coming years, having already started to build a base of traffic from MKM^» (Melksham (Station code) - next trains).   

I suspect you're right, John R.   And we could go further.

With a number of services going in the opposite direction all through the day, there will be a large number of other round trip combinations we haven't looked at each of which will contribute a passenger or two; each specific flow not justifying a service in its own right, but combined onto the services running they will make a difference.

I haven't put any time scale on my figures; they're what I believe would be achieved short term.  As people moved houses, between jobs, onwards in education they'll grow.  Start the service in May 2017 and come September you're likely to get a significant positive bump as Wiltshire College near to Chippenham Station starts the academic year, for example (but start in September and it won't be visible to new students to plan to use it until too late; slower uptake).

The effect will be cumulative too. If you add the later round trip from Westbury at 21:20 and Chippenham at 22:03, for example, you'll add traffic to afternoon / evening trains up to Swindon including the new 17:20 from Melksham. If you divide the 2-unit 08:12 from Bristol Temple Meads to Swindon (07:05 ex Gloucester) at Bath and run a portion to Bradford-on-Avon (08:44), Melksham (09:02), Chippenham (09:12) and Swindon (09:30) where it re-attached and becomes the 09:36 to Cheltenham Spa, then you'll boost all the return trains - 15:12, 16:48, 17:36 and 18:48.   If you were to somehow find stock to run an 07:48 Swindon to Westbury service, you would be able to tap into the significant travel-to-work in West Wilts market which as abysmally served from Swindon and Chippenham at present (Westbury arrival gap 06:55 to 09:42) and that would help feed return trains at 14:14, 16:21, 18:32 and 19:32 from Westbury (which are not overcrowded yet) as well as the new 17:20 from Melksham.

P.S. - come IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) running the hourly service from Swindon to Cheltenham Spa, you have an 07:48 arrival in Swindon from Westbury thats no longer headed onwards ...

[grahame]

Concluding the trial today ... the big change tomorrow is that there is no change 

I have, however, popped down to Melksham Station to take a look at passenger to / from / through the section unique to the TransWilts service.

The 08:37 to Swindon arrived with around 35 to 40 on board. No-one got off  and 8 got on ... 43/8 to 48/8

The 09:46 arrived with about 35 on board as well. 2 got off, 23 got on ... 58/25

Quite a few regulars and quite a few faces that were new to me.   From discussions I had last night, I know that the recent social media promotion has brought at least a few more passengers our way; for a Saturday on which Swindon Town are playing a long way away (at Sheffield) and fans would have been gone long before the 08:37, this is looking good.

[grahame]

Concluding the trial today ... the big change tomorrow is that there is no change 

The 08:37 to Swindon arrived with around 35 to 40 on board. No-one got off  and 8 got on ... 43/8 to 48/8

The 09:46 arrived with about 35 on board as well. 2 got off, 23 got on ... 58/25

Did a round trip on the very last LSTF^▸ (Local Sustainable Transport Fund) train ...

17:36 ex Swindon - 8 off, 5 on -> 45  53/13
18:32 ex Westbury - 4 off, 1 on -> 16 21/5
19:36 ex Swindon - 32 ex CPM^» (Chippenham - next trains); 5 off, 6 on 38/11

[John R]

Of the five services you saw today, all exceeded the 20 target, and in total the average was just over 40, so double the target.  And that's on a fairly bleak and wet saturday. Not a bad way to end the trial.

[TonyK]

An excellent result, which just goes to show how important it is to keep the pressure on for good transport. Well done to grahame and all concerned!

[grahame]

Of the five services you saw today, all exceeded the 20 target, and in total the average was just over 40, so double the target.  And that's on a fairly bleak and wet saturday. Not a bad way to end the trial.

An excellent result, which just goes to show how important it is to keep the pressure on for good transport. Well done to grahame and all concerned!

Thank you, Gentlemen,

Had we faied to build passenger numbers, last night could have turned into a significant negative event.  "Use it or loose it" was the whole basis on which the improved TransWilts service had run for the last three years.  With Great Western Railway, Wiltshire Council, the Department for Transport, local communities and councils and many others all on board to make it work, and with a route which is a natural daily, year-round travel corridor for a significant number of people, everything has come together very well.  So the results are very much towards the top end of the range of outcomes we had thought possible.   

Our target, colloquially stated, was an average of 20 passengers per service using the section of line unique to the TransWilts service - that's from Chippenham south, and from Trowbridge north.  Whilst we're delighted to have passengers using "our" train for journeys between Swindon and Chippenham, and between Westbury and Trowbridge, the service couldn't be justified on such journeys as there are other and longer trains available for the same journey within just a few minutes in most cases.  Target well and truley achieved, though the target was significantly lower than most of the range of forecasts as no-one involved wanted to set goal posts needlessly high, or risk faiing to achieve a target that shouldn't have been set in the first place.

This thread is entitled "End" - a word with terminal connotations.   But this is not terminal; this the start of a news stage - a "checkpoint" where we have secured a permanent base camp, and from which we can develop.   The same team and players are in the game today as they were yesterday; some roles may change.  In planning you may have seen some things which are sufficiently formulated to have been announced, and further positive announcements (new ones, I hope, rather than repeated ones!) should be made in the New Year.

[grahame]

The printed press is still significant in reaching users and  potential users - though it has changed out of most recognition.  In Wiltshire, the Wiltshire Times series covers all towns every week and is quite well circulated. The Melksham Independent News - every fortnight - is delivered free to every household and with significant editorial content is widely read ... and in particular it reaches those who actually get things happening - the movers and shakers.    Here are press cuttings from the end of last week ...  saying "hey, we've done well" but at the same time reminding us all that there's still work to be done.

[grahame]

From the Melksham Independent News

New trains stay for good as journeys jump from 12,000 to 60,000

THOUSANDS more people have taken the train to and from Melksham this year and services will continue to improve as a three-year trial has been hailed a huge success.

The trial, which began in 2013, ended last month and saw the number of trains stopping in Melksham each week grow from 28  to 119 over the three years.

The TransWilts Community Rail Partnership has worked hard to encourage local people to travel by train and the volunteers’ work has paid off; the number of journeys starting or ending in Melksham has risen from 12,000 in 2013 to 60,000 in 2016.

The line’s success means the services will keep running in the future.

Community rail officer, Graham Ellis, has spearheaded the campaign in Melksham.

Graham said, “Thank you to all who have travelled on the three-year trial train service that called at Melksham Station from December 2013 until December 2016.

“So many people have travelled on the train that it’s to continue permanently.

“Figures announced by the Office of Rail and Road show Melksham – served only by the TransWilts line – with the highest percentage growth in the region for the third year in succession. To achieve highest growth in any one year is good, to achieve it multiple years in succession is excellent, and to continue to achieve it in a year when the service in the six -week peak of the summer holiday was removed,  replaced or ‘bustituted’ because of engineering works is truly remarkable.

“Already announced plans for the next year or two look to an extra carriage on those trains that are just one carriage at present, and to an extra very early morning service to Swindon starting in 2018.”