6th December 2016

[whole diary]

[grahame]

Publication of the annual station usage figures is scheduled for 6th December on the ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) website

Estimates of Station Usage - Official Statistics   Annual(2015-16)   06/12/2016

Although there are underlying anomalies for many stations, these anomalies tend to carry on year to year and the change in figures from one year to the next gives us valuable (if 9 months late!) data.

Anyone like to hazard any guesses?

[John R]

Indeed the mid point of the data is even later, as we are comparing April 15 to Mar 16 with April 14 to Mar 15.   So on average it's sort of looking at a Sep 14 to Sep15 comparison if trying to spot trends.

But what that does mean is that the trend for MKM^» (Melksham (Station code) - next trains) will be clear for once, as last year's figures, when compared against the previous year, would not have been a true comparison, given that Apr to Dec 13 was prior to the service enhancement. (If that all makes sense?)

Unfortunately the figures will be slightly muddied by the Box Tunnel closure, but I'll pluck a figure out of thin air and say +50% for MKM.

[grahame]

Indeed the mid point of the data is even later, as we are comparing April 15 to Mar 16 with April 14 to Mar 15.   So on average it's sort of looking at a Sep 14 to Sep15 comparison if trying to spot trends.

But what that does mean is that the trend for MKM^» (Melksham (Station code) - next trains) will be clear for once, as last year's figures, when compared against the previous year, would not have been a true comparison, given that Apr to Dec 13 was prior to the service enhancement. (If that all makes sense?)

Utter senses as I have lived these figures and statistics  .  In each of the two last reports (for years to March 2014 and to March 2015) the Melksham figure doubled.   So the introduction of the trial service was reports in two steps.   If the figures were published from one timetable chafe to the next, you would probably have seen around 8,000 for 2013 rise to somewhere like  45,000 for 2014 and then to 65,000 for 2015, and I would be projecting 90,000 for 2016.

Unfortunately the figures will be slightly muddied by the Box Tunnel closure, but I'll pluck a figure out of thin air and say +50% for MKM.

Not far out, I suspect, John. I'm going to guess at around 80,000 - up from 58,000 and a rise of just under 40%, which is still not too shabby.  Looking further forward, the percentage growth will probably creep down but continue to be high for a number of years, assuming (and this is dangerous) that the line has the capacity to handle it.  One of the reasons for figures to start dropping is that people are being put off overcrowded trains and until they're longer you're going to see traffic being stunted from now.

Actually I wasn't only interested in Melksham in my question ... there are 200+ other GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) stations ...

[grahame]

Nothing yet at
http://orr.gov.uk/statistics/published-stats/station-usage-estimates

So it looks like it's not a press release that was embargoes until 00:01

[John R]

I recall in previous years it gets uploaded mid morning.

[grahame]

Here is a summary of how stations in the "South West" have fared over the year from 2014/15 to 2015/16

Sorted by growth (first column shows 2015/16 over 2014/15).  Second column is 14-15 and third column is 15-16.

Code:

 
 4.675 BIT  88440     413432   Bicester Town
 2.820 LEL  2874      8104     Lelant
 1.846 COE  26        48       Coombe
 1.792 LNG  8960      16058    Longcross
 1.683 KGN  3422      5758     King's Nympton
 1.528 ISP  6858      10482    Islip
 1.259 SER  204806    257802   St.Erth
 1.234 MEN  4128      5096     Menheniot
 1.170 MKM»  (Melksham (Station code) - next trains)  51858     60676    Melksham
 1.170 DPT  33968     39742    Devonport
 1.170 CME  1248      1460     Combe
 1.161 SVB  224658    260784   Severn Beach
 1.159 SIP  4884      5660     Shipton
 1.139 WBL  34040     38764    Warblington
 1.135 QUI  1394      1582     Quintrel Downs
 1.131 KGS  63340     71644    King's Sutton
 1.126 SJP  64586     72712    St.James' Park
 1.126 AUW  4026      4532     Ascott-Under-Wychwood
 1.121 DID»  (Didcot Parkway - next trains)  3083258   3456680  Didcot Parkway
 1.118 NRC  86984     97254    Newbury Racecourse
 1.117 TRR  274708    306802   Torre
 1.117 GRT  250840    280160   Grateley
 1.115 HND  243568    271496   Handborough
 1.106 ROC▸  (Rail Operating Centre - a centralised location for railway signalling and train control operations for a specific route or region)  2310      2556     Roche
 1.106 PSN  114458    126636   Parson Street
 1.103 BSM  256342    282650   Branksome
 1.102 SCS  101004    111316   Starcross
 1.098 MVL  313526    344232   Malvern Link
 1.098 CKN  141812    155696   Crewkerne
 1.097 LNY  726202    796614   Langley
 1.095 AMT  74846     81968    Aldermaston
 1.094 FZP  166904    182676   Furze Platt
 1.085 CFN▸  (Clifton Down station)  619766    672386   Clifton Down
 1.084 HYD  38068     41276    Heyford
 1.084 BRU  34096     36950    Bruton
 1.083 AVN  119924    129860   Avonmouth
 1.081 THA  535172    578410   Thatcham
 1.081 SHH  52480     56756    Shirehampton
 1.080 SAB  11230     12134    Smallbrook Junction
 1.080 RLN  110676    119534   Rowland's Castle
 1.080 HGD  344156    371804   Hungerford
 1.075 PGN  631506    678656   Paignton
 1.073 CBY  305284    327518   Charlbury
 1.073 BPW»  (Bristol Parkway - next trains)  2340506   2511016  Bristol Parkway
 1.071 RDW  385332    412642   Reading West
 1.071 LTS  116798    125064   Lelant Saltings
 1.070 CHR  465334    498016   Christchurch
 1.069 TVP  447284    478250   Tiverton Parkway
 1.069 CNM»  (Cheltenham Spa - next trains)  2038404   2178472  Cheltenham Spa
 1.068 TQY  457724    488854   Torquay
 1.068 TAP  247068    263958   Taplow
 1.067 PEW  218616    233196   Pewsey
 1.067 LYM  99052     105738   Lympstone Village
 1.067 BAS  37082     39570    Bere Alston
 1.066 MIM  237198    252950   Moreton-In-Marsh
 1.065 TAC▸  (Track Access Contract)  22612     24078    Tackley
 1.064 FSB»  (Federation of Small Businesses - about)  73178     77846    Fishbourne
 1.062 TGM  602886    640112   Teignmouth
 1.062 PWY  92540     98296    Patchway
 1.062 PIN  88872     94354    Pinhoe
 1.061 BRI»  (Bristol Temple Meads - next trains)  10099526  10711464 Bristol Temple Meads
 1.061 BMT  87542     92868    Bedminster
 1.059 SFR  135600    143668   Shalford
 1.058 NLS  450510    476618   Nailsea & Backwell
 1.058 KEY  6936      7338     Keyham
 1.057 DWW  157212    166248   Dawlish Warren
 1.056 PSH  95310     100690   Pershore
 1.054 LED  203612    214632   Ledbury
 1.054 DTW  533268    561908   Droitwich Spa
 1.054 BAW  507298    534794   Blackwater
 1.053 FNT  70534     74294    Feniton
 1.052 WTI  490878    516284   Winnersh Triangle
 1.052 GCR»  (Gloucester - next trains)  1364142   1435698  Gloucester
 1.051 BDW  115808    121700   Bedwyn
 1.050 RAD  138896    145904   Radley
 1.050 MTN  54782     57522    Moreton (Dorset)
 1.050 CDI  52492     55112    Crediton
 1.048 CWL  63560     66642    Colwall
 1.047 LWH  150774    157912   Lawrence Hill
 1.046 TAU»  (Taunton - next trains)  1315144   1375546  Taunton
 1.046 NBY»  (Newbury - next trains)  1745710   1826560  Newbury
 1.045 FLE  1814208   1896110  Fleet
 1.044 FTN  1643624   1715878  Fratton
 1.044 CDU▸  (Cab Display Unit)  185504    193640   Cam & Dursley
 1.042 YAE  354004    368910   Yate
 1.041 BAG  166896    173680   Bagshot
 1.041 ASC  87384     91000    Ashchurch
 1.040 BAN  2336852   2429822  Banbury
 1.039 WSM  1099844   1143152  Weston-Super-Mare
 1.039 WOS»  (Worcester Shrub Hill - next trains)  595402    618467   Worcester Shrub Hill
 1.039 WOF  2207508   2293021  Worcester Foregate Street
 1.038 GER  1407408   1461276  Gerrards Cross
 1.038 EXC  2343636   2433006  Exeter Central
 1.037 POL  116552    120826   Polsloe Bridge
 1.037 HAM  157940    163854   Hamworthy
 1.036 YVJ  214748    222396   Yeovil Junction
 1.035 MLF  270866    280252   Milford (Surrey)
 1.035 MAI▸  (Maidenhead station)  4307576   4459110  Maidenhead
 1.034 MRD  11822     12222    Morchard Road
 1.033 WTY  271366    280228   Witley
 1.033 WAN  111714    115348   Wanborough
 1.033 SAL  1963292   2028148  Salisbury
 1.033 KEM  356078    367758   Kemble
 1.032 WKM  2344598   2420218  Wokingham
 1.032 HYB  56178     57978    Honeybourne
 1.032 BSK▸  (Brake Standard Corridor (carriage))  5561414   5739458  Basingstoke
 1.031 PAN  431404    444648   Pangbourne
 1.031 EVE  247724    255476   Evesham
 1.031 BCE  2315218   2386098  Bracknell
 1.030 SIV  638754    657750   St.Ives
 1.030 FRO»  (Frome - next trains)  169482    174644   Frome
 1.030 AHV  474462    488636   Ash Vale
 1.028 WSB»  (Westbury - next trains)  529358    544244   Westbury
 1.028 SGM  57102     58676    St.Germans
 1.028 KYN  412602    424032   Keynsham
 1.028 HFD»  (Hereford - next trains)  1192912   1226444  Hereford
 1.028 EGG  29106     29920    Eggesford
 1.028 CRN‡(resolve)  303816    312430   Crowthorne
 1.027 STD  490546    504006   Stroud
 1.027 NWM  603240    619686   New Milton
 1.027 CLA  216602    222396   Clandon
 1.027 AVF  19432     19948    Avoncliff
 1.026 WOR  291502    299014   Worle
 1.026 PKS  226270    232130   Parkstone
 1.026 NTA»  (Newton Abbott - next trains)  1141040   1170480  Newton Abbot
 1.026 CAM  460372    472358   Camberley
 1.026 BNE  244818    251288   Bourne End
 1.025 THE  475938    487678   Theale
 1.025 RDG‡(resolve)  16339602  16755984 Reading
 1.025 LIS  230454    236142   Liss
 1.025 GMV  543198    557012   Great Malvern
 1.025 FML  210102    215418   Frimley
 1.025 EXT  213848    219232   Exeter St. Thomas
 1.025 ACT  1225750   1255918  Ascot
 1.024 EXD»  (Exeter St Davids - next trains)  2509220   2569104  Exeter St. David's
 1.024 BMH  2624682   2688160  Bournemouth
 1.024 ADV  1178074   1205858  Andover
 1.023 SHE  216114    220980   Sherborne
 1.023 MDG  33996     34772    Midgham
 1.023 CHL  25910     26498    Chilworth
 1.022 SWI»  (Swindon - next trains)  3503982   3580540  Swindon
 1.022 GOR  401356    410134   Goring & Streatley
 1.022 AHT  1434250   1465212  Aldershot
 1.021 OVR  193098    197158   Overton
 1.021 DCW  131408    134105   Dorchester West
 1.021 DCH  471340    481015   Dorchester South
 1.021 AXM  386226    394438   Axminster
 1.020 KGM  180536    184218   Kingham
 1.019 LIP▸  (Loco Inspection Point)  502362    511796   Liphook
 1.018 COO  213964    217826   Cookham
 1.017 HOK  809570    823478   Hook
 1.016 VIR  596322    606042   Virginia Water
 1.016 MOR  183146    186084   Mortimer
 1.016 HIG  190396    193462   Highbridge & Burnham
 1.015 WNS  520922    528564   Winnersh
 1.015 WNM  64494     65450    Weston Milton
 1.015 PTR  1360682   1380900  Petersfield
 1.014 TMC  113732    115378   Templecombe
 1.014 GLD  8090682   8200644  Guildford
 1.014 FNH  1633504   1656962  Farnham
 1.014 FIT  1007780   1021550  Filton Abbey Wood
 1.012 WCH  287880    291280   Whitchurch (Hampshire)
 1.012 PTC  393750    398606   Portchester
 1.012 POK  315302    318958   Pokesdown
 1.012 DAT  351798    356114   Datchet
 1.012 AON  744138    753202   Alton
 1.011 LEO  273912    276904   Leominster
 1.011 BWT  308856    312292   Bridgwater
 1.010 WOO  188168    190126   Wool
 1.010 SRD  178114    179872   Stapleton Road
 1.010 HSL  1785362   1804054  Haslemere
 1.010 HAV  2351802   2375640  Havant
 1.010 CHO  272430    275100   Cholsey
 1.010 BNM  1285000   1297344  Burnham
 1.009 EAR  639888    645500   Earley
 1.008 TWY▸  (Twyford station)  1369126   1379522  Twyford
 1.007 OLF  312946    315070   Oldfield Park
 1.007 MAO  584142    588416   Martins Heron
 1.007 BFE  16858     16982    Bere Ferrers
 1.006 SND  155342    156218   Sandhurst
 1.006 KIT  92552     93092    Kintbury
 1.006 HOT  771406    776282   Henley-On-Thames
 1.006 GIL  423212    425660   Gillingham (Dorset)
 1.005 PNM  201662    202660   Penmere
 1.005 BKO  989826    995142   Brookwood
 1.004 SBV  10332     10376    St.Budeaux Victoria Road
 1.004 IVR  224740    225704   Iver
 1.004 BAA  1015654   1019876  Barnham
 1.003 WOK  7963172   7989232  Woking
 1.003 SHU  148380    148786   Stonehouse
 1.003 CSK  33704     33794    Calstock
 1.002 WPL  209504    210012   Worplesdon
 1.002 TOP  231122    231660   Topsham
 1.002 RYP  218060    218410   Ryde Pier Head
 1.002 APF  7738      7752     Appleford
 1.001 FRM  1785204   1787200  Fareham
 1.000 TRO»  (Trowbridge - next trains)  903248    902966   Trowbridge
 1.000 SNG  697686    697446   Sunningdale
 1.000 CCH  3232654   3231354  Chichester
 1.000 ASH  288550    288430   Ash
 0.999 TOT  657754    657370   Totnes
 0.999 TIS‡(resolve)  241524    241340   Tisbury
 0.999 HLS  325254    324842   Hilsea
 0.998 BTY  150858    150558   Bentley
 0.997 WGV  95910     95646    Wargrave
 0.997 PLY»  (Plymouth - next trains)  2495248   2487562  Plymouth
 0.997 GOD  1389206   1385590  Godalming
 0.997 EXM  927182    924112   Exmouth
 0.996 SHN  294698    293654   Shanklin
 0.995 HON  391860    389784   Honiton
 0.994 YET  7064      7022     Yetminster
 0.994 SLO  5561672   5529074  Slough
 0.993 WNC  1885272   1872790  Windsor & Eton Central
 0.993 WHM▸  (Well House Manor (where I worked - please excuse advert))  68896     68448    Whimple
 0.993 FNC  870668    864546   Farncombe
 0.992 SAU  467806    464000   St.Austell
 0.991 WNR  1498216   1484182  Windsor & Eton Riverside
 0.991 OXF»  (Oxford - next trains)  6624954   6564678  Oxford
 0.991 CSA  976770    967946   Cosham
 0.990 DEN  25808     25550    Dean
 0.989 LOS  68240     67472    Lostwithiel
 0.989 BOH  103510    102358   Bosham
 0.988 PNZ  549730    543036   Penzance
 0.988 GSL  54356     53728    Gunnislake
 0.987 LKE  53006     52310    Lake
 0.987 BOD  237776    234792   Bodmin Parkway
 0.986 SHI  92580     91314    Shiplake
 0.986 EMS▸  (Engine Management System)  390052    384490   Emsworth
 0.986 BTH»  (Bath Spa - next trains)  6222126   6134318  Bath Spa
 0.986 BNP▸  (Barnstaple)  427394    421346   Barnstaple
 0.986 BMY  277720    273790   Bramley (Hampshire)
 0.984 LSK  357086    351394   Liskeard
 0.984 CLC▸  (Castle Cary)  245296    241466   Castle Cary
 0.983 LYC  54972     54026    Lympstone Commando
 0.982 WEY  756022    742236   Weymouth
 0.982 DIG  571510    561188   Digby and Sowton
 0.981 FIN  1804      1770     Finstock
 0.980 STS  68526     67174    Saltash
 0.980 PMS  2156486   2113681  Portsmouth & Southsea
 0.980 PMH  2206210   2162417  Portsmouth Harbour
 0.980 BOA  534946    524180   Bradford-On-Avon
 0.978 YAT  435626    426246   Yatton
 0.978 WMN»  (Warminster - next trains)  388422    379830   Warminster
 0.976 WNF  378578    369426   Winchfield
 0.976 TLH  546658    533300   Tilehurst
 0.975 WRM  344542    335818   Wareham
 0.975 RYR▸  (Restoring Your Railway)  184924    180220   Ryde St.John's Road
 0.972 RYD  289574    281344   Ryde Esplanade
 0.972 RED  343722    334194   Redruth
 0.972 FFD  44414     43160    Freshford
 0.972 BOG  1236794   1202460  Bognor Regis
 0.971 GOM  58480     56806    Gomshall
 0.971 FNN  666162    646536   Farnborough North
 0.971 FNB  3081070   2990294  Farnborough (Main)
 0.971 EXN  23078     22400    Exton
 0.971 BDH  136952    132926   Bedhampton
 0.967 SNY  46850     45300    Sunnymeads
 0.965 LYD  192032    185232   Lydney
 0.964 NCM  411704    396724   North Camp
 0.963 MLW  289204    278618   Marlow
 0.962 PAR  197670    190168   Par
 0.960 YEO  17128     16450    Yeoford
 0.959 CBN  280452    269034   Camborne
 0.958 CPM»  (Chippenham - next trains)  1895980   1815922  Chippenham
 0.956 SML  64512     61696    Sea Mills
 0.956 SAN  203142    194276   Sandown
 0.955 TRU  1257040   1201010  Truro
 0.953 NQY▸  (Newquay (Station))  100208    95478    Newquay
 0.952 YVP  136644    130020   Yeovil Pen Mill
 0.952 SOB  237168    225900   Southbourne
 0.951 POO  1236048   1174922  Poole
 0.951 HNA  175632    167106   Hinton Admiral
 0.951 FMT  213840    203468   Falmouth Town
 0.950 MDN  21670     20582    Maiden Newton
 0.949 CUM  63210     59958    Culham
 0.946 DWL  556796    526736   Dawlish
 0.944 RDA▸  (Regional Development Agency)  105610    99732    Redland
 0.944 NUT  82810     78190    Nutbourne
 0.944 CAU  2094      1976     Causeland
 0.937 LOO  124914    117014   Looe
 0.936 MTP  130560    122146   Montpelier
 0.929 HYL  87948     81732    Hayle
 0.919 UPW  47936     44042    Upwey
 0.915 PYN  266580    243802   Penryn
 0.914 THO  3144      2874     Thornford
 0.913 COP  13476     12304    Copplestone
 0.893 IVY  59374     53020    Ivybridge
 0.884 SCR  1904      1684     St.Columb Road
 0.864 LUX  2170      1874     Luxulyan
 0.861 BDN  50954     43846    Brading
 0.856 PRW  35646     30530    Perranwell
 0.848 FAL  137296    116478   Falmouth Docks
 0.845 DMH»  (Dilton Marsh - next trains)  19514     16494    Dilton Marsh
 0.835 BCS  1696402   1416600  Bicester North
 0.834 CNO  2334      1946     Chetnole
 0.833 UMB  37608     31324    Umberleigh
 0.833 LAP  2704      2252     Lapford
 0.829 NTC▸  (New Track Construction)  2510      2082     Newton St.Cyres
 0.826 CBB  231800    191408   Carbis Bay
 0.818 HOL  37616     30760    Holton Heath
 0.797 SKN  1986      1582     St.Keyne
 0.782 BGL  5554      4342     Bugle
 0.759 SBF  3926      2980     St.Budeaux Ferry Road
 0.747 SDP  1762      1316     Sandplace
 0.676 PIL  68        46       Pilning
 0.660 DOC  6300      4160     Dockyard
 0.659 SAR  11184     7374     St.Andrew's Road
 0.521 CPN  192       100      Chapelton
 0.501 PMA  1510      756      Portsmouth Arms

"South West" defined as stations with postcodes starting TR PL SN TQ EX TA DT SP BS BA^» (British Airways - about) SH RG SL OX DO BH GL WR HR^▸ (Human Resources) GU PO for this initial exercise

My full time series at http://www.wellho.net/data/rstats2016.xyz ; needs checking and will be short of the more recently opened stations.

[grahame]

Station comparator at http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/smr/ updated to include new data

Graphics such as http://www.wellho.net/demo/railuse.php?place=BS updated

[stuving]

Station comparator at http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/smr/ updated to include new data

... though the year on year ratio figures for the latest year all seem to be 100%.

[grahame]

Station comparator at http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/smr/ updated to include new data

... though the year on year ratio figures for the latest year all seem to be 100%.

Fixed - thanks.   Always an interesting exercise getting this stuff updated quickly when the data's released!

[Adelante_CCT]

Looks like richwarwicker has been doing his bit for Coombe

Or is it next year's stats that will be extra inflated?   

[grahame]

And here are the usual culprits:

12 Shippea Hill
38 Reddish South
46 Pilning
48 Coombe
68 Barry Links
74 Denton
88 Stanlow & Thornton
98 Tees-Side Airport
100 Chapelton
116 Clifton
132 Sugar Loaf
134 Buckenham
138 Breich
162 Havenhouse
168 Golf Street
170 Kildonan
200 Kirton Lindsey
286 Thorpe Culvert
294 Scotscalder
296 Elton & Orston
296 Acklington

I expect to see several of those grow out of the list in the forseaable future. There are other which I'm sure wouldn't appear under a more useful service plan should that be able to be justified.

[Noggin]

Amazing stats, a credit to the industry that it is coping with such growth.

[JayMac]

Coping?

I wouldn't go that far! 

[PhilWakely]

Just as a matter of interest, how exactly are the figures arrived at?

For instance, if a ticket states 'London Stations', or 'London Thameslink', how are these counted?

[John R]

The methodology is set out in the report that accompanies the figures on the ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) website. As you've demonstrated by just one example, it's by no means simple, so worth a read if you are interested.