XC December 2017 timetable consultation

[whole diary]

[John R]

Oh and the Bath early morning starter will be withdrawn under the proposal

With regard that, they say:

To enable these capacity improvements on busy trains, some decrements to current service patterns will be necessary, where demand is comparatively light and alternative journey solutions or services are available, for example:

Hmmmm ... strikes me as an inaccurate comment as far as the Bath train is concerned.

a) What is the train going to be doing instead - where will its capacity be redeployed?   Strikes me that at 06:10 in the morning from Bath - to become an 06:30 Bristol starter - this is nothing today with moving capacity to somewhere else.

b) The 06:09 has allowed a Plymouth arrival at 08:33 (change at Temple Meads).    What "alternative journey solutions or services are available" to give a Plymouth arrival from Bath in time for the working day?   As far as I can see, the next journey from Bath to Plymouth (to become the first journey of the day from Bath to Plymouth won't arrive there until 10:33.

I notice that one of the reasons given for its withdrawal is "consistency with the Saturday schedule".  That seems bizarre for a couple of reasons, firstly, it appears to be the tail wagging the dog in terms of which one should be made consistent.  Secondly, has it occurred to them that the markets might be slightly different, in particular, business travellers may need to get to their meetings earlier than Saturday's travellers might want to travel?  And as has been pointed out, the train serves another early XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) service, down to the South West.  Given comments elsewhere about loadings on the Paignton services, (which given those quoted appear to have been taken on a wet Tuesday in November), I'd also be suspicious as to the loadings quoted for the service.

Elsewhere I note the comments about the additional Exeter services broadly offsetting GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) services via Bristol.  I do wonder whether the plans to run HST^▸ (High Speed Train)'s on Penzance to Exeter and Cardiff might make those services (albeit slower) the preferred choice for some if they come to fruition. 

[Chris from Nailsea]

See also a new petition topic, at http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=17716.0

[Henry]

I quite regularly catch the 1242 Teignmouth to Paignton Cross Country service.
Certainly on a Monday to Friday, the train is relatively empty by the times it leaves Newton Abbot.

Not usually being an advocate of cutting services, it seems with the limited stock available to train operating
companies the decision could be beneficial to passenger's. Bearing in mind services between Newton Abbot and
Paignton are well served at this time of day.

[Tim]

The Bath starter has only been in the timetable since 2010. Introduced solely as an ORCATS^▸ (Operational Research Computerised Allocation of Tickets to Services) raid and not to provide improved journey oportunities. I guess the finances of this have been marginal.

AIUI^▸ (as I understand it), ORCATS raids only work because the allocation of revenue between operators is driven by a model that does not conform precisely to reality.  An operator spots the mismatch and exploits it.  But the ORCATS model is constantly being refined and so the loopholes do sometimes get closed.  In theory ORCATS raids ought not to last for too long.

[grahame]

I quite regularly catch the 1242 Teignmouth to Paignton Cross Country service.
Certainly on a Monday to Friday, the train is relatively empty by the times it leaves Newton Abbot.

Not usually being an advocate of cutting services, it seems with the limited stock available to train operating
companies the decision could be beneficial to passenger's. Bearing in mind services between Newton Abbot and
Paignton are well served at this time of day.

A very interesting discussion on that yesterday at the TWSW^» (TravelWatch SouthWest - website) AGM^▸ (Annual General Meeting) ... and it comes down to a number of considerations such as:

a) Should XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) really be providing 'filler' services on their long distance trains to overcome the shortcomings of a local operator / local franchise SLC^▸ (Service Level Commitment)?

b) What is the effect on traffic that is currently making use of direct services if services are  amended such that a change is needed?

In the case of the Bath Spa starter, there is a strong argument to suggest that it would be more suitable if GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) were required to provide a Westbury starter at around 05:30 which could then feed into the path of the 06:09 at Bath Spa and continue from Bristol in one of the diagrams that starts there at around 06:30.   Such a service using a sprinter or turbo could also build traffic by serving intermediate stations.

The case of Paignton may be a bit different, with (educated guess) statistically significant numbers of mature leisure passengers with substantial luggage who would be seriously put off by having to change trains (or having to leave just after 7 a.m.).

[devonexpress]

Surely its about time that the government looked into adding say a fleet of 10 to 15 IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) 8 or 9 car sets to Crosscountry services, I mean even if the HST^▸ (High Speed Train)'s get powered doors, they'll only have another 10 years left I would say, and its not like XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise))'s passenger numbers are going to shrink anytime soon!

[signalandtelegraph]

Surely its about time that the government looked into adding say a fleet of 10 to 15 IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) 8 or 9 car sets to Crosscountry services, I mean even if the HST^▸ (High Speed Train)'s get powered doors, they'll only have another 10 years left I would say, and its not like XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise))'s passenger numbers are going to shrink anytime soon!

An inter-changeable fleet common to several operators now there's a thought.......... 

[grahame]

Totally unscientific and unedited (some TLCs^▸ (three letter code ) guessed!) ... journey notes I made in coach F (rear car from Cheltenham, front car from Birmingham) on the 09:12 yesterday.   Around 50 seats in the car / numbers noted are in the main carriage section.   I suspect other carriages may have loaded more fully .

cc only on catering
10 min delay at BMH / "problem an BMH"
Signal problem ahead @ SHD - in a Q of trains - became 26 late
Wakefield Westgate - Bridge strike ahead
30 late into Leeds; compensation due saya annoucnement
27 late onwards
38 late into Darlington; compensation due announcement made
still 36 late into Motherwell

4 car voyager
The first train manager said "it had only been busy from Taunton to Bristol and that was only commuters".
ex CNM^» (Cheltenham Spa - next trains) few off;  => 6
BMH -3 +8 => 11
TAM -0 +3 => 14
DBY -3 +8 => 19
CFL -4 +2 => 17
SHF -4 +25 => 38
WWG -0 +12 => 50
LDS -29 +6 => 27
YRK -14 +8 => 21
DAR -0 +1 => 22
DRH -2 +1 => 21
NCL -2 +9 => 28
ALN -0 +1 => 29
BWT -0 +0 => 29
EDH -18 + 18 => 29
HAY -0 +0 => 29
MTH -11 +2 => 20 on to GLC^▸ (Glasgow Central)
Child traffic - perhaps 10% / 20% with adults [ 4 of 29 / 7 of 29 @ end]
16:28 for 15:52



Really only "full" from Wakefield into Leeds; also busy from Sheffield to Wakefield.   Apart from these two stretches, the 07:20 off Melksham was busier per coach (and that's the 2 car pre-peak train!).    Note use of word "only" by train manager when describing commuters. from Taunton to Bristol.

I would suggest Alnmouth and Berwick figures distorted due to late running / I suspect another train mopped up the traffic - that's a guess based on ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) station usage as the figures yesterday were weirdly low.

Huge amount of middle distance traffic; after mine, next longest I noted was Sheffield to Glasgow. Quiet week weigh regard business journeys; 'lots' of families header home prior to school starting next week. So a really poor sample, but worthy of learning / perhaps comment from other members?

Edit - added train times image

[Worcester_Passenger]

It'd be useful if you added the times (either scheduled or actual - probably need both here) at the various stations.

Unusual for it not to recover some of the lost time. This timetable has so much padding in it - this train is given 7 minutes at Leeds, 9 at Newcastle and 5 at Edinburgh.

My experience on this route is that there's big commuting flows into and out of Birmingham, Leeds and Newcastle. I rarely go as far as Edinburgh (West Coast is usually quicker and cheaper for me). Plus a lot of inter-peak traffic as you saw between Sheffield and York. Indeed, I always aim for one of the via-Doncaster trains so as to avoid the Leeds traffic.

The via-Doncaster trains omit the Tamworth / Burton / Chesterfield stops, which I have always thought should be on the Newcastle short workings rather than the Edinburghs. The Edinburghs get the slower route round through Leeds - swapping the Tamwworth / Burton / Chesterfield stops would give a better headway betweeen York and Newcastle. Looking at your numbers, one wonders if it's worth bothering.

I am reminded of an announcement from several years ago : "Ladies and Gentlemen, this is your Train Manager. I'd like to welcome on board the passenger who joined us at Chesterfield".

[grahame]

It'd be useful if you added the times (either scheduled or actual - probably need both here) at the various stations.

I have gone back to realtime trains and found the log ... added it to the previous post.

Unusual for it not to recover some of the lost time. This timetable has so much padding in it - this train is given 7 minutes at Leeds, 9 at Newcastle and 5 at Edinburgh.

Felt slow - got held up, I suspect, behind local trains once it was out of path.

On a west coast service headed south again now - much quicker!

My experience on this route is that there's big commuting flows into and out of Birmingham, Leeds and Newcastle. I rarely go as far as Edinburgh (West Coast is usually quicker and cheaper for me). Plus a lot of inter-peak traffic as you saw between Sheffield and York. Indeed, I always aim for one of the via-Doncaster trains so as to avoid the Leeds traffic.

The via-Doncaster trains omit the Tamworth / Burton / Chesterfield stops, which I have always thought should be on the Newcastle short workings rather than the Edinburghs. The Edinburghs get the slower route round through Leeds - swapping the Tamwworth / Burton / Chesterfield stops would give a better headway betweeen York and Newcastle. Looking at your numbers, one wonders if it's worth bothering.

I don't think I experienced a particularly usual run; different traffic metrics (returning -after-christmas families rather than business) - and we missed out Burton.

[Chris from Nailsea]

I am reminded of an announcement from several years ago: "Ladies and Gentlemen, this is your Train Manager. I'd like to welcome on board the passenger who joined us at Chesterfield".

Wicked! 

[Tim]

a) Should XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) really be providing 'filler' services on their long distance trains to overcome the shortcomings of a local operator / local franchise SLC^▸ (Service Level Commitment)?

This hits the nail on the head for me.  In an ideal world the answer would be "yes", but given that XC has limited stock, the strategy of thinning out less well used trains and using the stock (and the extra set formed by reforming 2 five-car sets plus virgins 2 spare driving units into 3 four-car sets; and the extra 2 sets provided by diagraming an extra HST^▸ (High Speed Train) each day) to run mostly 8-unit trains or 7 coach HSTs on the core route seems sensible. 

Of course the stock XC has is terribly inefficient.  An 8-car set only has about 300 standard class seats less than a 4-car 158 or turbo.  Some IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) bimodes (or similar) for XC would be great and if a use can be found for the Voyagers elsewhere, I would not be surprised if a business case could be made for replacing an 8-car double 220/221 with a 5 car class 800-type bimode which would have lower fuel costs as well as slightly more passenger capacity (and the option to lengthen if the business case is to be based on higher passenger numbers).  I predict that we will see proposals along those lines in the next XC franchise.