Hmmmm.
I'm sort of half and half here!
I think it would be mad to stop HSTs▸ at Exeter!
Totally agree but the financial realities of the
FGW▸ franchise premium profile do not bode well for the future in these parts.
The 10 year First Greater Western Franchise started with subsidy from government but quickly reverts to increasingly large premium payments to government.
Here's a breakdown of the payments that First receives (for the first three years) then makes (for the following four years) for the task / honour of running trains Westward from London.
2006/07 First to RECEIVE a SUBSIDY of 97 million pounds
2007/08 First to RECEIVE a SUBSIDY of 46 million pounds
2008/09 First to RECEIVE a SUBSIDY of 14 million pounds
2009/10 First to make a PREMIUM PAYMENT of 20 million pounds
2010/11 First to make a PREMIUM PAYMENT of 111 million pounds
2011/12 First to make a PREMIUM PAYMENT of 168 million pounds
2012/13 First to make a PREMIUM PAYMENT of 233 million pounds
First can relinquish the contract at that point without penalty, or they can carry on for a further 3 years:
2013/14 First to make a PREMIUM PAYMENT of 302 million pounds
2014/15 First to make a PREMIUM PAYMENT of 363 million pounds
2015/16 First to make a PREMIUM PAYMENT of 427 million pounds
I would not put money on First making it to year 10 of the current FGW franchise.
The point is that those rising premium payments have to be paid for by rising passenger numbers/efficiency savings.What happens if this does not happen. According to Network Rails 2007 business and I quote "Between 2000 and 2006 rail passenger demand has grown by up to 20 percent for journeys from Exeter and Taunton to London, and up to 40 percent to the Midlands. However, this is in contrast to the minimal growth for journeys to similar locations from Plymouth, and west thereof",something will have give.