Taking a look at numbers and where we head

[whole diary]

[grahame]

"The fastest growing line in the country".  Nice words - VERY nice words - to hear in front of professional forums from senior people at our train operator.  I'm not aware of which particular statistical base the comparison is made on, but it's still an excellent reflection that we're doing rather well.    

It does, mind, give some growth pains. The way we work within TransWilts, I look to grow the traffic to make those pains routine (not to make for a painful one-off overcrowd!) ... and one of my colleagues looks to the strategic end to help sort out those pains in the longer term.   Thus he (Paul) has now steered the designation through, and been involved on our 'side' with getting the trial service permanent - thus making the temporary service improvement we've had for three years the new "base camp" from which we can promote, long term / permanent.

Passenger numbers, why people are travelling, what journeys they're making, and who's not travelling but could / would be if [reason] remain important - and I'm going to carry on (and encourage others to carry on) counting numbers and watching.  That's part of Community Rail, TransWilts style, as it educates us and thus helps us know how to help generate more traffic for the good of the people served (and our stakeholder / members).  But counting's no longer as easy as it used to be as (these days) I run out of fingers and toes.

From yesterday - Saturday - no noticeable "special" flow.

The 07:48 at Melksham toward Swindon .. -2 + 7 -> 27.  29/9
(following train 50 minutes later probably MUCH busier!

And the 16:49 toward Swindon.  Arrived with 30 on; -16 + 10 -> 24  40/26

With the 16:49 / very much young family group profile / shopping trips. I real concern at cars, push chairs, toddlers all mixing at and near the station gate, and an alert (to self and Paul) that what was safe in the days of single figure interchanges on and off train becomes much less so.

[bobm]

Interesting to note the quote I posted in the Okehampton rail thread earlier this morning

There were some complaints, however, of overcrowding which led to some passengers refusing to travel.

We have tried to tailor marketing to fit with the (predicted) number of seats available but it isn't a perfect science and having got someone to the train we do run the risk they won't come back if it is sardines.  But of course if you don't promote, they won't come at all!

[Chris from Nailsea]

... counting's no longer as easy as it used to be as (these days) I run out of fingers and toes.

You may find one of these useful, grahame. 

[bobm]

Indeed - I was bought one as a Christmas present a couple of years back.

Bigger problem is trains - even 153s - have more than one door!

[grahame]

This morning .... 158880 ... 07:20 at Melksham, -2 + 27 -> 82.   84/29 "Isn't this amazing - I remember when it was just you and me" says an the old-timer.  And this isn't even the "top of peak" train.

Steady stream using the ticket machine ... but needless to say insufficient time for conductor to get through before Chippenham where there was a significant number off and on.

Significant care needed around the station entrance at Melksham with all the arrivals, drop-offs, foot passengers, cycles being parked and at least 3 kiss-and-ride drivers waiting just to make sure the train turns up.

[John R]

I wonder how many more would there have been had the link bus still been operating and whether it might have relieved some of that congestion around the station.

[grahame]

I wonder how many more would there have been had the link bus still been operating and whether it might have relieved some of that congestion around the station.

Interesting thought, John.

A couple of the folks who used to use the bus still make the train (on foot I suspect) and I got a lift as I conserve my walking energy these days when I have a long day ahead of me.    The bus was running at between 12 and 15 people per morning across the two trains and remember this is the quieter one ('just for the train, significantly for the bus')  so I would have suggested that we might have had an extra 6 to 10 getting on the train with a saving of 2 or 3 cars at this point.   No use crying over spilled milk, but we do keep note for when we may have a fresh bowl for the milk in the future!

[grahame]

And back on the final train ...

Symetric! ...

10 on from Swindon
-2+11 at Chippenham
so 19 on to Melksham
-11+2 at Melksham
10 left on towards Trowbridge

21/13

We'll call the train "Hannah" because it reads the same forward or back. But then that name has been used for a 125 power car - "Dame Hannah Rogers Trust" to celebrate their work at Seale-Hayne, where the Great Western community conference took place a couple of years ago.

[John R]

Always interesting to compare, this time from last November.

From Swindon - 6 passengers.  At Chippenham, no-one got off and 7 got on.  At Melksham, 6 off and none on - so that's 13/6

So 13/6 becomes 21/13 in less than a year on the last train of the day.  Obviously with low numbers they can be a bit volatile but more evidence that traffic is growing at all times of the day.

[grahame]

Always interesting to compare, this time from last November.

From Swindon - 6 passengers.  At Chippenham, no-one got off and 7 got on.  At Melksham, 6 off and none on - so that's 13/6

So 13/6 becomes 21/13 in less than a year on the last train of the day.  Obviously with low numbers they can be a bit volatile but more evidence that traffic is growing at all times of the day.

Numbers up and down indeed on that last train, but nothing to suggest that last night was out of the ordinary.  I arrived from Cheltenham Spa as one of three or four in a carriage - admitted it was one of eight carriages - left with 10 for Chippenham and 19 for Melksham.

I do tend to talk with people on the train, having got to know / recognise many regulars.  Last night, chatting with a Trowbridge to Swindon regular ... up at 07:10 and back at 17:36 most days, but occasionally works late; this 20:06 provides a safety net without which he (and a number of other) wouldn't be relying on the service.  And, yes, he would like the "supernet" of another later round trip too.  Running a train just because one person would like it isn't on ... but there's a sea of people including people not currently using the train at all who are like him, or indeed who would switch to the train if that supernet existed.

When services switch from 1 to 2 carriages, we'll have a stairstep increase in capacity - just like (as a company) when we moved up from one employee to two, it was huge and "how do we keep the person busy" and "can we get more custom to use the resource".   But we're not just gently tapping at the ceiling of the one coach train now - we're thumping our head hard against it and have the headache of loosing traffic because the train's too full.   My contact of last night was happy that he can "usually" get a seat at Swindon on the 17:36.   I'm not sure how early he's there for that train as it's a long turnaround and usually loading well in advance - but he did admit that there would be zero chance of sitting if he joined at Chippenham!   

Current loading averaged across the service is around a 35% which looks shockingly low until you start comparing to other public rail and bus services, and that figure will fall to around (estimate) 25% for the first month of movement up from 12 to 18 carriages per day - that's replacing the 153 with a 2 car train.  But analysis in various ways suggests we'll be back up, well over 30%, rather quickly.    Then when you take the three round trips which are already 2 carriages and have the unit on the TransWilts all day - 4 more round trips - you're not looking at such a big step change (percentage wise).  And in the process of doing all this, you're meeting the needs of those people we spoke to in our little survey at the Melksham Food and River festival - the ones who don't use the train - who said that they could/would/might if the train were more frequent and ran a longer day.   We have a plan!