Minehead Rail Link Group

[whole diary]

[broadgage]

I am not aware of any data on the proportion of Butlins customers who arrive by public transport, but my own observations suggest that it is very small indeed.

At present the ONLY public transport to the holiday camp is the 28 bus from Taunton, and national rail services to Taunton.

The bus runs twice an hour and each bus* carries about 100 passengers. That gives a MAXIMUM  flow of less than one thousand spread over a few hours. And the capacity of Butlins is variously stated at between 10,00 and 15,000.

Say four full length trains, each conveying about 1000 passengers would carry a significant percentage  of the total flow.

*Presuming use of double decker.

[grahame]

What percentage of visitors to Butlins currently use public transport, i.e. the unsuitable/crowded bus that is frequently referred to?

That might be a better starting percentage to start to work the business case on?

I'm not so sure.   We know that when we have a rail replacement bus provided on (or rather for) our local line, traffic evaporates. People getting lifts, people going a long way round, people waiting for the next train or even choosing a different day to travel.  If a train carried 40 people normally, I would be surprised to see as many as 8 on a bus.

I don't know what the parallel, if any, would be between our bus experience and the bus v potential rail experiences on the Minehead run - but let me get my fag packets out and do some arithmetic.    Stories tell us both of buses that are overcrowded on turnover day, and from First that the buses [at other times?] are so quiet that they are not commercial viable.     That would suggest to me that the lumpy traffic on turnover day brings a substantial number of extra people - say 40 - onto (shall we say) 4 separate services in each direction, twice a week because there are two turnover days Which all multiplies up to 33,000 journeys.

Taking my bus v train (5:1) ratio, that would suggest very roughly indeed to me that we're looking at 165,000 journeys per annum.     I haven't a clue how accurate that is - but I do note that that my other very different fag packet calculation came out with 150,000 journeys for this flow.

[IndustryInsider]

I’m not sure a TransWilts rail replacement bus comparison is a good one as that takes a great deal longer than the train it replaces.

From journey time projections I’ve seen, the Minehead service would take about the same time by rail as it does by bus.  It’s more the extra capacity provided by the train that would be very useful.

[grahame]

I’m not sure a TransWilts rail replacement bus comparison is a good one as that takes a great deal longer than the train it replaces.

Neither am I - far too many things differ and reflect in both an upwards and a downwards direction. Itis the closest I have to offer with knowledge from my own experience.    I am relieved that my calculations in three different ways have come out with broadly similar passenger guesstimates and that in none of those have I forced the figures upwards in any way; for sure as an advocate of rail / public transport it's very easy to wear rose tinted spectacles.

With all the ducks lined up, I remain convinced that a national rail service running through to Minehead would offer a similar success story to Okehampton, Ebbw Vale, Melksham, Tweedbank and others - not only in the direct "isn't this rail service doing well" arena, but also in the "look at the good this is doing for the area" mode.  And done with care - but this is the tricky bit - it can be done to continue to provide a wonderful line for tourism, heritage and volunteer operation reducing the financial yokes around the neck of such operations of sole maintenance responsibility for a long permanent way in a time of climate change and ageing volunteers.  Compromises needed on all sides - but I'm not sure if it's broken enough yet for those compromises to be reached.
 

[TaplowGreen]

I’m not sure a TransWilts rail replacement bus comparison is a good one as that takes a great deal longer than the train it replaces.

Neither am I - far too many things differ and reflect in both an upwards and a downwards direction. Itis the closest I have to offer with knowledge from my own experience.    I am relieved that my calculations in three different ways have come out with broadly similar passenger guesstimates and that in none of those have I forced the figures upwards in any way; for sure as an advocate of rail / public transport it's very easy to wear rose tinted spectacles.

With all the ducks lined up, I remain convinced that a national rail service running through to Minehead would offer a similar success story to Okehampton, Ebbw Vale, Melksham, Tweedbank and others - not only in the direct "isn't this rail service doing well" arena, but also in the "look at the good this is doing for the area" mode.  And done with care - but this is the tricky bit - it can be done to continue to provide a wonderful line for tourism, heritage and volunteer operation reducing the financial yokes around the neck of such operations of sole maintenance responsibility for a long permanent way in a time of climate change and ageing volunteers.  Compromises needed on all sides - but I'm not sure if it's broken enough yet for those compromises to be reached.
 

There certainly seems to be a compelling argument for additional public transport on Butlins changeover days, probably initially at least via extra buses.

"Stories tell us both of buses that are overcrowded on turnover day, and from First that the buses [at other times?] are so quiet that they are not commercial viable". - probably won't help the argument that a rail service is justified if it would only really be fully utilised once or twice a week.

I would say the best way to develop your argument would be to get an idea of how many people commute from Minehead and other intermediate stations to Taunton, how they do so, and how many would be likely to switch to using the train were it to be available.

Apologies if that's been covered earlier in the thread, I can see it's been going for a good few years!

Lots of ifs, buts, maybes and "remaining convinced" without data would be unlikely to convince the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) I reckon?

[broadgage]

IF an effective year round train service served Minehead, then I would expect a substantial increase in day trippers visiting Minehead, either as day guests to Butlins or to enjoy a day beside the sea.

In the longer term regular commuting is likely to or from Minehead.

In the much longer term a return of rail freight to serve the industrial estate and supermarkets is possible. The long talked about Severn barrage to generate renewable electricity is again being discussed due to the great increase in natural gas prices.
Rail delivery of the plant and materials seems far preferable to road traffic.

[grahame]

Lots of ifs, buts, maybes and "remaining convinced" without data would be unlikely to convince the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) I reckon?

Indeed it can be hard to convince the DfT and some other key players. I recall "Fill the existing trains and we'll then provide some more" for Melksham - which was pretty darned awkward with 2 trains a day from Swindon, at 06:20 and 18:44 from Swindon and at 07:20 and 19:47 from Melksham. 

"Show us that you (community) can reach people and get them to use the trains" was also a tall ask on that service, and with services at 09:20 and 15:20 to Swindon and back (also) at 15:20 and 21:20 on Saturdays, and 2 northbound trains on Sunday evening with nothing in service in the other direction ("Two services on Sunday from Westbury to Swindon" said the SLC^▸ (Service Level Commitment) ... so nothing in passenger service provided in the other direction)

But it can be done - in our case with incremental experiments that proved the case

[grahame]

In the much longer term a return of rail freight to serve the industrial estate and supermarkets is possible,

Extremely unlikely.  How many other supermarkets are served by rail?  Goods from ports to DC^▸ (Direct Current)’s, yes.  To the actual store?  No.

We headed off on a very interesting tangent after this post on increasing passenger traffic, far, far from Minehead so I have split the above post and those that followed it into a new thread at http://www.passenger.chat/28735

[grahame]

https://www.facebook.com/groups/1730959503584733/posts/26674634072123931/

Can't keep a project like a reconnection of Minehead to the National Network down.   That link shows a picture of the disused bay platform at Taunton from where Minehead (and Barnstaple) trains left and has triggered a discussion of many of the issues.

One of these years ...

From today, here are the trains that start at Taunton and head east via Cogload - and candidates to start back from somewhere on the line to Minehead?

Starts here 5 2M02 GW^▸ (Great Western) Bristol Temple Meads 0510
Starts here 4 2K10 GW Severn Beach 0637
Starts here - 1A09 GW London Paddington 0654
Starts here 3 1A12 GW London Paddington 0724
Starts here 3 2U08 GW Cardiff Central 0819
Starts here 3 2U18 GW Cardiff Central 1311
Starts here 6 2U22 GW Cardiff Central 1515
Starts here 2 2U26 GW Cardiff Central 1711
Starts here 3 2U28 GW Cardiff Central 1810
Starts here 2 2U30 GW Cardiff Central 1914
Starts here 3 2M76 GW Bristol Temple Meads 2244

and while I am at it, here are trains arriving via Cogload and terminating

0808 Bristol Temple Meads 3 2C63 GW Terminates here
1154 Cardiff Central 3 2C71 GW Terminates here 5
1353 Cardiff Central 3 2C75 GW Terminates here 5
1655 Cardiff Central 2 2C81 GW Terminates here 5
1758 Cardiff Central 3 2C83 GW Terminates here 5
1857 Cardiff Central 2 2C85 GW Terminates here 5
1911 London Paddington 3 1C22 GW Terminates here 9
2015 London Paddington 3 1C25 GW Terminates here 9
2207 Cardiff Central 3 2C91 GW Terminates here 5

[Witham Bobby]

https://www.facebook.com/groups/1730959503584733/posts/26674634072123931/

Can't keep a project like a reconnection of Minehead to the National Network down.   That link shows a picture of the disused bay platform at Taunton from where Minehead (and Barnstaple) trains left and has triggered a discussion of many of the issues.

One of these years ...[snip]

The platform shown on that Facebook page is the old Platform 8 at Taunton, the arrival bay for terminating trains from Barnstaple and from Minehead.  It's on the up side of the station

Originating trains heading for Barnstaple and Minehead went from the old Platforms 3 and 4, on the down side.

So there was inevitably an amount of shunting in order for arriving trains to become departing return workings.  Made for a very interesting place for trainspotters with an interest in operations. 

Frequently, trains from Minehead would, in practice, arrive at Platform 5 (The Up Relief platform) and become a working to Yeovil.  This would cut-down on the shunting moves very considerably

[grahame]

One of these years ...

From today, here are the trains that start at Taunton and head east via Cogload - and candidates to start back from somewhere on the line to Minehead?

It's been a long day ... and so I amused myself going through the look above.  With a single extra train, departures from Taunton at 08:10, 10:10, 12:00, 14:00, 17:00, 20:20 and 22:20 and from Minehead at 07:10, 09:10, 12:10, 14:10, 16:10, 19:10 and 21:20 - five of them through trains from / to beyond Taunton ... running time of just over an hour, trains passing in most cases at Bishop's Lydeard.  Where trains leave both ends at the same time, crossing at Williton?

[grahame]

From Somerset Catch the Bus Camapign

09.26 and the first standing loaded 28 on its way to Taunton. I wonder which will come first. Bos admitting they have continually messed up the 28 but are going to do something about or people getting fed up and avoiding using the buses completely. My money is on the latter.

Posting here just as a reminder that buses struggle to cope with the traffic on the Minehead to Taunton route. Difficult to see what alternative there is?

[broadgage]

I expect a few years of reviews, studies, and consultations, followed by a change of government with the new government re-doing the reviews, studies and consultations because the last lot did not do them properly.
Simply making use of an existing railway line is arguably too simple.

[ChrisB]

Owned by the Heritage railway, surely?
Then it for them to make a decision first. They might not be able to staff it all day, every day for example.

[grahame]

Owned by the Heritage railway, surely?
Then it for them to make a decision first. They might not be able to staff it all day, every day for example.

Think it was owned by Somerset County Council - so now owned by the Unitary Authority? 

Lots of very serious issues and I will get shot down from all sides by daring to suggest that something could be done; I don't even live on the line.   

But something could be done