Minehead Rail Link Group

[whole diary]

[broadgage]

IMHO^▸ (in my humble opinion), by far the most important issue is to get through trains running regularly between Taunton and Minehead.

Deciding which stations on the WSR are to be served,
And deciding what trains to use,
And deciding what places beyond Taunton are to be served, are all relatively minor matters. LETS PUSH FOR A THROUGH SERVICE Before worrying about the details.

A Summer only service is better than nothing, but a regular ALL YEAR ROUND SERVICE  should be the aim.
A battery powered train is arguably the best long term option, but a REGULAR SERVICE  using whatever trains are available is a higher priority.
A new Butlins station would be welcome as Minehead station is too far from the holiday camp to walk with children and luggage, but a REGULAR THROUGH SERVICE TO THE EXISTING STATION is more important than potential future improvements.

[IndustryInsider]

Sounds like it’s still a good 5-10 years away at the earliest then, with little impetus from the organisations that really matter in terms of funding the building of a business case, let alone funding its operation.  A shame.

[grahame]

Sounds like it’s still a good 5-10 years away at the earliest then, with little impetus from the organisations that really matter in terms of funding the building of a business case, let alone funding its operation.  A shame.

May sound like it ... and yet projects seem to drag along on the back burners, with a drip, drip drip of ideas busy mixing corny metaphors with an apparent lack of direction or conclusion until all the ducks suddenly get into a a line (or into the same ponds) with a bit of prodding from a few people and out of the blue and quickly the stars align.

Not too far away I look at how suddenly Okehampton leapt forward (though I know there had been ongoing mutterings for years).  I know how we fought in Wiltshire for an appropriate service through Melksham and how after years of missing jigsaw pieces the majority came together and then a couple of final kicks took it over the line - an eight year project, but it was less than 8 weeks from the "round and round we go" situation to the first new train service.

Yes, sounds like years away. Very likely is.  But don't bet against it being much quicker!

[ChrisB]

Got to persuade the heritage volunteers to take a 364 day job too....they can't volunteer that frequently

[grahame]

Got to persuade the heritage volunteers to take a 364 day job too....they can't volunteer that frequently

A whole lot of people - with varying goals and interests - need to be prepared to move a little (British understatement perhaps) out of their comfort zone.  An inspirational leader, with a knowledgeable support team and a line on finance that provide a business plan, and respect in all quarters ... and you never know.

[TaplowGreen]

Sounds like it’s still a good 5-10 years away at the earliest then, with little impetus from the organisations that really matter in terms of funding the building of a business case, let alone funding its operation.  A shame.

By which time Butlins will probably have closed.

[broadgage]

Sounds like it’s still a good 5-10 years away at the earliest then, with little impetus from the organisations that really matter in terms of funding the building of a business case, let alone funding its operation.  A shame.

By which time Butlins will probably have closed.

Doubt it !
The present company that operates the holiday camp might well go bust, but the assets such as land and  buildings would then be sold and operated by the new owner.
It seems most unlikely that such a large and valuable site would be abandoned.

[Chris from Nailsea]

No, definitely not abandoned.  But maybe reconstructed as a modern environmentally friendly housing estate, with affordable homes, convenience shop - and a link to the national rail network ? 

[broadgage]

No, definitely not abandoned.  But maybe reconstructed as a modern environmentally friendly housing estate, with affordable homes, convenience shop - and a link to the national rail network ? 

Certainly possible, but in my view more likely that a new owner would use it as a holiday camp, and in the "off season" host large scale concerts and religious  gatherings.

[grahame]

No, definitely not abandoned.  But maybe reconstructed as a modern environmentally friendly housing estate, with affordable homes, convenience shop - and a link to the national rail network ? 

Certainly possible, but in my view more likely that a new owner would use it as a holiday camp, and in the "off season" host large scale concerts and religious  gatherings.

I have asked myself "what is the size of the mass transit flow we are talking about now and into the future for Minehead?" as I think about the mass transit needs / opportunities here.   I welcome any comments / feedback on the following which is guesswork for the most part from me.

Butlins (Minehead) has a residence capacity of 7,500 and as a venue you might anticipate an occupancy rate on average year round of - what - around 50%, with a typical stay being 7 days.   That's 400,000 arrivals and 400,000 departures per annum - call it 750,000 single journeys by the time you allow for some of the residences being for staff who will stay significantly longer than a week.  Hard for me to even guess what sort of market penetration a rail service from 2,500 UK^▸ (United Kingdom) stations to the camp itself, at sensible cost, running reliably when people want to travel, would have - lets be bullish and say 20%.  That's between 2500 and 3000 journeys on a weekly turnover day - or a half of that if the turnover is split between two days a week.

Minehead Town has a population of around 12,000 as I read it, which is about a half of the size of places like Frome, Warminster and Melksham where passenger numbers are roughly quarter of a million a year (Melksham being a poor outlier due to the still-poor train service there) and I could suggest that passenger journey numbers for general traffic in the area would be around 125,000 per annum - that's probably a low figure if the service was a decent and attractive one, bearing in mind the high proportion of short-stay visitors in the town.

So if you cater for both traffics and do a "good" job of it - and by "good" I mean a service that attracts traffic at a typical rate for a town / line like this, you're looking at a total of around 300,000 journeys per annum but bearing in mind all the variable that is a very very very rough guess.

I'm sure I'm not the first to be doing this "back of fag packet" arithmetic and would love to see what figures others might come up with.

Now - add in

1. A heritage operation with the same "day" as at present, but operating five days a week with turnover day given over to the National Rail extras

2. Traffic to and from stations within the Taunton area (Norton Fitzwarren and Bishops Lydeard) with park and ride and interchange options - exciting but hugely variable depending on services (as poor as Ardwick and Bordesley, or as good as Bristol Parkway or Worcestershire Parkway??)

3. Other thin but noticeable traffic for places like Williton and Watchet

4. Interchanges perhaps for destinations such as Porlock, Exmoor, Lynmouth and even Ilfracombe - whether they would be at a Minehead station or a connectional facility at Dunster, and whether they would be worthwhile, I will leave for others to comment.

[TaplowGreen]

No, definitely not abandoned.  But maybe reconstructed as a modern environmentally friendly housing estate, with affordable homes, convenience shop - and a link to the national rail network ? 

Certainly possible, but in my view more likely that a new owner would use it as a holiday camp, and in the "off season" host large scale concerts and religious  gatherings.

I have asked myself "what is the size of the mass transit flow we are talking about now and into the future for Minehead?" as I think about the mass transit needs / opportunities here.   I welcome any comments / feedback on the following which is guesswork for the most part from me.

Butlins (Minehead) has a residence capacity of 7,500 and as a venue you might anticipate an occupancy rate on average year round of - what - around 50%, with a typical stay being 7 days.   That's 400,000 arrivals and 400,000 departures per annum - call it 750,000 single journeys by the time you allow for some of the residences being for staff who will stay significantly longer than a week.  Hard for me to even guess what sort of market penetration a rail service from 2,500 UK^▸ (United Kingdom) stations to the camp itself, at sensible cost, running reliably when people want to travel, would have - lets be bullish and say 20%.  That's between 2500 and 3000 journeys on a weekly turnover day - or a half of that if the turnover is split between two days a week.

How would you convince families, especially those travelling from further afield, who currently drive door to door to Butlins to give up the car journey in favour of carrying a weeks worth of luggage + a couple of children from home to their nearest rail station to travel by train, almost inevitably involving at least one change of train en route with said luggage, being more restrictive in terms of timings, taking longer and costing more than their current method of transport, and having to compete for space with others similarly loaded down at the same time?

[grahame]

How would you convince families, especially those travelling from further afield, who currently drive door to door to Butlins to give up the car journey in favour of carrying a weeks worth of luggage + a couple of children from home to their nearest rail station to travel by train, almost inevitably involving at least one change of train en route with said luggage, being more restrictive in terms of timings, taking longer and costing more than their current method of transport, and having to compete for space with others similarly loaded down at the same time?

Noting, please, I'm only looking to have 1 in 5 transfer to rail.  Online research suggests that's not a terribly different proportion to the proportion of households without a car.

You are asking me how I would convert the most difficult group to convert, when I have a suggestion under which we do not need to convert them.  Lots of potential answers here as to how a decent market penetration could be achieved - I had probably better get back to that later as I have a train to catch.  Now - I could drive - however, I'll probably grab a pint or two to lubricate my voice, and I'll leave our car at home with Lisa as she has separate errands to run.

[Red Squirrel]

I think it's valid to compare the Minehead line with the Dartmoor Line to Okehampton.

	Minehead	Okehampton
Distance from nearest NR» (Network Rail - home page) railhead (km)	30	28
Population	12,000	6,000
Population between railhead and terminus	9,000*	0

* Watchet: 3,500 ; Williton: 2,500; Norton Fitzwarren: 3000.

The combined population of Watchet and Williton is about the same as that of Okehampton.

Given the success of the Okehampton line, isn't there is a good case to bring the Minehead Line back into the national network?

[broadgage]

The main road between Minehead and Taunton ascends to a considerable height and is sometimes closed by snow, even when no snow exists in either Minehead nor in Taunton, the railway line is less vulnerable.

The narrow road is also vulnerable to closures due to accidents.

A properly run rail service should be more reliable than the bus route.

[IndustryInsider]

How would you convince families, especially those travelling from further afield, who currently drive door to door to Butlins to give up the car journey in favour of carrying a weeks worth of luggage + a couple of children from home to their nearest rail station to travel by train, almost inevitably involving at least one change of train en route with said luggage, being more restrictive in terms of timings, taking longer and costing more than their current method of transport, and having to compete for space with others similarly loaded down at the same time?

Noting, please, I'm only looking to have 1 in 5 transfer to rail.  Online research suggests that's not a terribly different proportion to the proportion of households without a car.

You are asking me how I would convert the most difficult group to convert, when I have a suggestion under which we do not need to convert them.  Lots of potential answers here as to how a decent market penetration could be achieved - I had probably better get back to that later as I have a train to catch.  Now - I could drive - however, I'll probably grab a pint or two to lubricate my voice, and I'll leave our car at home with Lisa as she has separate errands to run.

What percentage of visitors to Butlins currently use public transport, i.e. the unsuitable/crowded bus that is frequently referred to?

That might be a better starting percentage to start to work the business case on?