I'm delighted that the people of Ebbw Vale have their service at last - here it is, this evening, waiting at platform 0 at Cardiff Central just before half past five. It's a 4 car train - 2 x 150. Early days for the service but it appeared to have a healthy sprinkling of customers on board - a few dozen, perhaps. Does anyone know what the traffic forecast levels are? Part of me is delighted at this generous provision, part of me feeling just a little that concerned that there may be overprovision here that's leading to underprovision elsewhere. I know that for an appropriate service returned to the TransWilts we would expect to start with something shorter.
Let's see ... a single 150 would cope with the traffic I saw this evening (and 2 and 3 times that traffic) in comfort. The released 150 could strength the Bristol to West Wiltshire service in the evening peak that's strengthened with a 153 at the moment (good news for groups who are unhappy with overcrowding that's still going on - and the 17:30 Cardiff to Portmouth certainly left Bristol, 2 car, pretty packed tonight). And then you have a 153 which could form a 17:45 Swindon to Salisbury service.
Now I'm totally aware that the mechanisms of franchises, rolling stock leases and the like mean that solutions like this can't be implemented as easily as might have been possible in the days of nationalisation (and, good heavens, we used to complain about the railways then too!). And I'm completely aware that I do NOT have and forecasts or figures for the 4 car Ebbw Vale service, and may be asking the question based on an observation that may be unrepresentative. Does anyone have the figures / forecasts?
Again and again over travels in the past few weeks - I've been struck by the major station facilities lieing underustilised - 2 and 3 coach trains standing at platforms that can take 8 to 10 coaches, and those trains ranging from busy (in Nottingham) to packed (from Liverpool, and local services around Cardiff) to overcrowded (Bristol to / from the Midlands, Cardiff to Bristol and on towards West Wiltshire)