Referendum - result of vote, and implications for transport in the UK

[whole diary]

[ChrisB]

I doubt it - and if they did, all agreements with the EU^» (European Union - about) fail immediately, meaning any trade would be under the WTO rules & tariffs from day 1. All movement of people would have no legal means either. Unrealistic to think they'd do this frankly

[eightf48544]

It will be interesting to hear the EU^» (European Union - about) comments after their meeting tomorrow without Cameron.

Early indications are they that they want us to press the button asap, whilst Boris seems to be taking a laid back approach.

Leave said we'd get free trade with the EU with border controls and restrictions on free movement of labour whilst remain said not a chance.

If the EU plays hard ball and says you have to press the button before we will negotiate and we won't tell you what we'll negotiate it puts Boris in dilemma. Does he press the button and try and go for free trade and closed borders or does he drop closed borders to get free trade.

As leave said don't worry about free trade they'll give us that but we will take control of our borders they became  two of the main planks of their campaign. He's going to upset a lot of people which ever he chooses.

Then their are the Scots and Northern Irish who voted to stay how is he going to deal with them?

He ought to be a very worried man or will his ego and personal ambition come to the fore and he'll just plough on and take us out no matter what the deal or consequences. 

The irony about it all is that it's not migrants that cause you not to get to the doctors, get a school place or buy a house it's George Osbourne's austerity measures not spending enough on health and education or building affordable housing.

I am afraid in or out of the EU  if we want a decent country to live in we're all going to have to pay more tax (probably even more if we are out).

It's interesting that Denmark and Finland which seem to be the happiest countries in Europe are also pretty highly taxed wonder if there's a correlation?

[patch38]

It's interesting that Denmark and Finland which seem to be the happiest countries in Europe are also pretty highly taxed wonder if there's a correlation?

There's a direct correlation. Although taxation itself never makes anyone happy, the services it provides - if done well - can be beneficial. There's a fun but interesting read - A Year of Living Danishly - written by an English journalist who went to live in Billund in Denmark which explains a lot.

[ChrisB]

Tomorrow's meeting is *with* Cameron explaining how he got it so wrong, then Wesnesday they continue without him

[TonyK]

There's a fun but interesting read - A Year of Living Danishly - written by an English journalist who went to live in Billund in Denmark which explains a lot.

I'm waiting for "A Year of Living Icelandically", by Roy Hodgson, who now has time to write a book, and a reason to leave the country.

[ChrisB]

Frankly, it's the players, not the manager we should fire!

[TonyK]

In other news, it seems we have forum watchers at the heart of Government. Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt has suggested that the terms of a new deal within Europe could be the manifesto for a party at a general election called to decide one issue - do we stay or do we go? Welcome Minister, I'm flattered. Do please sign up!

We are beginning to see European reaction. France want the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) out now, and dealt with ever so harshly pour encourager les autres. Spain holds a similar view for a different reason, that being fear of demands for a referendum on Catalan independence. Greece feels our pain and is sympathetic, probably wishing it could do the same itself but knowing it couldn't. Poland is the biggest of the states looking anxiously at the flow of remittances from its expatriate community in Britain, and wondering what would happen to its growing economy if they all came home. It is largely holding its counsel, remembering that our two countries' relationship has deeper roots than the EU^» (European Union - about).

Probably the voice that will dictate the way things unfold is that of Frau Merkel. Article 50 can only be invoked by the state wishing to leave. A state cannot have Article 50 forced upon it, although once the blue touch-paper is lit, we are forced through a no-return turnstile into a corridor with the exit door at the end. The German Chancellor believes that there is no need for an unseemly rush to exit. This is not out of any particular fondness for the UK, but on a pure assessment of what is best for Germany Europe. Half of the cars sold in Britain last year - 1.3 million - were made by German-owned companies, with Volkswagen exporting over 800,000 to Britain. VW is still trying to find its way around the emissions scandal, and does not need the blip in its figures that economic uncertainty and import tariffs would bring. Her forced bonhommie will, though, be offset to a degree by the knowledge that a lot of the banking and financial services work currently done in London may well go abroad if we cannot negotiate a deal with the EU for financial services. Frankfurt, the spiritual home of the Eurozone, is well placed to take this on.

An unlikely casualty of Brexit may be that 17th century derivation of West Germanic Anglo-Frisian dialects that we now call the English language. Today, it is one of 24 official  languages of the EU. More importantly for day-to-day business, it is one of the three working languages of the European Commission (French and German being the others) and is the most widely used. The UK is the only country to have registered English as an official language, however. Other countries where English is widely spoken even amongst natives have chosen others - Ireland plumped for Gaelic, Cyprus for Greek, Malta for Maltese. If we leave, and English is removed from the list of official languages, then presumably the EC will discourage its use in daily business.

On railway matters, fresh doubt has been cast on HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) following the referendum. This seems to have been in part caused by the loss of business confidence with the sliding pound and stock market, but may be more the raising of voices that have always been against it. Another mooted casualty is Hinkley C. Although EDF insist otherwise, the cost of building it is likely to rise and the strike price it has secured for its electricity in pounds will be worth a lot less in euros.

In political campaigns, as in war, the first casualty is truth. A lot of backtracking is going on (or "backsliding" according to Nigel Farage, imputing a quasi-religious aspect to his creed), more by the leave side than the remain side. That is not necessarily because they told more lies, but that having persuaded the majority to agree with them, their lies are now more easily exposed than "Remains". We will have to live with the truth. So far, that is looking like preference for access to the single market over restrictions on the rights of EU citizens to live and work here, a definite no £350 million per week for the NHS, and a weaker pound. Who saw that coming? Not Roy Hodgson, for sure.

[ChrisB]

Merkel has an election next year - and the unions are already motivating their members to protect the jobs in the motor industry....I think she'll need to find a way to at least get a deal for that industry - which could keep financials in London for example.

[Bmblbzzz]

In other news, it seems we have forum watchers at the heart of Government. Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt has suggested that the terms of a new deal within Europe could be the manifesto for a party at a general election called to decide one issue - do we stay or do we go? Welcome Minister, I'm flattered. Do please sign up!

We are beginning to see European reaction. France want the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) out now, and dealt with ever so harshly pour encourager les autres. Spain holds a similar view for a different reason, that being fear of demands for a referendum on Catalan independence. Greece feels our pain and is sympathetic, probably wishing it could do the same itself but knowing it couldn't. Poland is the biggest of the states looking anxiously at the flow of remittances from its expatriate community in Britain, and wondering what would happen to its growing economy if they all came home. It is largely holding its counsel, remembering that our two countries' relationship has deeper roots than the EU^» (European Union - about).

Poland's reluctance to see UK leave is more than just economic interest or historical romanticism, strong as both those are. It's also that the form of capitalism which has taken root in Poland and certain other post-Communist countries is more of an Anglo-Saxon, free-trade nature (at least in theory) than what might be described perhaps as "social-marketism" of a more Continental nature. There are also defence reasons: not the WWII^▸ (World War 2 - 1939 to 1945) pilots! Poland and the Baltic states are genuinely fearful, whether rightly or wrongly, of a resurgent (angry and scared) Russia.

An unlikely casualty of Brexit may be that 17th century derivation of West Germanic Anglo-Frisian dialects that we now call the English language. Today, it is one of 24 official  languages of the EU. More importantly for day-to-day business, it is one of the three working languages of the European Commission (French and German being the others) and is the most widely used. The UK is the only country to have registered English as an official language, however. Other countries where English is widely spoken even amongst natives have chosen others - Ireland plumped for Gaelic, Cyprus for Greek, Malta for Maltese. If we leave, and English is removed from the list of official languages, then presumably the EC will discourage its use in daily business.

I doubt it. In practice English is the world's trading and negotiating language, just as French was in the 19th century, regardless of official status. What might change is the nature of that English – it might become more international, more European, more (whisper) American than British. Because why learn British English when the jobs, the trade and the cultural influences are from across the Atlantic? Or from China or, say, Latin America, where the English used is more American.

[trainer]

I like FT,N's analysis very much.

I am much of the opinion I was expressing even before the result was known. The most disappointed people are going to be the "Leavers" because there were so many very diverse expectations of what Leaving meant any outcome of negotiation will entail some folk feeling let down as hopes of their personal Eldorado are dashed in the necessary compromises.

One railway matter perhaps exemplifies the situation over EU^» (European Union - about) Regulation.  We have recently imported the final Class 66 locomotives ordered in 2014 to beat the EU emissions regulations in force from 2015.  In theory, we could (when outside the EU) continue to import these machines to our heart's content. Sovereignty/control taken back and all that, in a practical sense.  However, the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) is perhaps unlikely to want to operate less clean engines (since we signed up to the standards) and some of the freight companies are sending their locos to their European subsidiaries and need to follow the EU standards regardless.  Thus in that respect, nothing changes.

I wonder how many more 'restrictive' standards that we were promised we will no longer be bound by are actually ones which a civilised society would want for the general good.  So there will be no bonfire of most regulations.  Perhaps a small hearth will suffice and no-one will notice in the midst of other upheaval.

[TonyK]

Over the past few days, the storm has gathered pace. Nigel Farage's rather gloating charm offensive in the European Parliament, where he unfortunately forgot the charm, went down like a lead balloon. Bojo has realised what an absolute mess he has helped to create, decided that discretion is very much the better part of valour, and left it for someone else to try to get the fan clean again. In any case, he has a biography of Shakespeare to finish, and Michael Gove's knives to clean and return when he can get them out of his back. George Osborne has screwed up and binned the fag packet on which he had drawn up his fiscal plan.

On the opposite benches, the opposition has imploded, and there are rumours that the next member of the shadow cabinet will be Jeremy Corbyn's horse. Outside parliament, a mob smells blood, but isn't sure whose.

As the leadership bids are unveiled, it becomes apparent that nobody had a plan A, let alone B. The Leave camp had assumed we would remain, and hadn't used any solid facts in their campaign, whilst those of a Remain kidney had also assumed we would remain, and even if we didn't, it would not be their problem. So what now for infrastructure?

If Theresa May gets in, the third runway at Heathrow is almost certainly doomed - for now. She, as MP^▸ (Member of Parliament) for Maidenhead, has always been an opponent if not a die-for-the-cause one, and may give the gig to Gatwick. But as I have said before elsewhere in the Coffee Shop, the only outcome that could ever be regarded as final is the building of the third runway at Heathrow. Everything else is a mere reprieve for Sipson et al. Either way, it will be at least October before any announcement is made, according to Patrick McLoughlin at Transport Questions yesterday (no, I didn't spot that either).

Mrs May is a supporter of HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)), which can expect impetus if she gets in. That said, I'm not sure it has really lost any in the events of the past week, despite the speculation.

Gove's constituency of Surrey Heath generates many complaints about aircraft noise. He has, apparently, dealt with these on behalf of his constituents  in a robust manner, but isn't heavily against expansion at Heathrow. I am unsure of his stance on HS2, but would think he is up for it.

Dave, meanwhile, may go down as the Prime Minister who accidentally marched us out of Europe, split not just his own party but the Labour party as well, and may even leave the break-up of the United Kingdom as his legacy, but he dodged these two bullets.

Business does not like this, but at least it won't be too long before it can sit down and work out the sums again. Stability should be back with us within 10 years or so - a mere tea break in the timescales British infrastructure trundles along in.

[Bmblbzzz]

Outside parliament, a mob smells blood, but isn't sure whose.

Its own.

[ChrisB]

History will not be at all kind to David....that's for sure

[TaplowGreen]

History will not be at all kind to David....that's for sure

I suspect it'll be kinder to David than it will be to Jeremy.

[Western Pathfinder]

Wait arround until later this week and we will see how kind it will be to Tony !.