Squashed - train services between Bristol and Bath

[whole diary]

[Spaceship]

Apologies if this has been posted before but this is something I have noticed happening with increasing regularity over the last several months.

Over the course of around a single hour i.e. 5 till 6pm there are only several trains on local services i.e Keynsham, Oldfield Park etc. So for say departing temple meads their are the following services

16.49 3 carriages (very occasionally 2)
17.06 4 carriages (sometimes reduced to 2
17.49 3 carriages
18.04 mostly 2 carriages

(Note I know that there are other local services that go at other times that occasionally stop at Keynsham)

Thats the roughly the equivalent of 2 HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) in carriage numbers?

Most of these trains are standing all the way through from at least 5mins before departure on an almost daily occurance However to be honest I try to see the funny side of the situation but sensibly speaking is it safe to have this number of people on a train? Especially if it has to brake sharply for one reason or another?

I think the busiest one was last week on the 7.49 (a 4 car) out of Oldfield park going towards Temple Meads when the train turned up it was standing to the point that people were glaring at each other and a few commenting that it was unusually more squashed than usual! Of course when we got to Keynsham I think some people probably couldn't get on. It almost got to the point where I was thinking Japanese train packers should be employed by GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) to push people on!?

A solution could be to use an HST on the local services - I admit that they wouldn't be able to run at 125mph but it would certainly solve the space issue. I know that they can stop at my local station because one did stop last winter when there were signalling problems delaying all the local services and it was very cold so the local train staff made the call to pick people up at the local stations. (which was appreciated by the passengers)

Not being able to travel on the rest of the local network at peak hours is this normal for most trains across the west.

[JayMac]

A solution could be to use an HST^▸ (High Speed Train) on the local services

There isn't the fleet capacity to utilise HSTs for local stopping services. They are predominately long distance rolling stock designed to move people to/from larger stations or to/from London and the regions.

[grahame]

Good questions.

Passenger numbers (ticketed station entries and exits) were forecast to rise by 0.8% per annum compound from 2005 for the following 10 years, and the timetable and stock levels were planned in that anticipation.  So at Keynsham the expectation was a rise from 169,000 to around 183,000 journeys, and at Oldfield Park from around 150,000 journeys to around 162,000 journeys.

The First group, winning the Greater Western franchise to run from 2006, budgeted for those predicted figures and reduced the amount of rolling stock in their pool as previously services hadn't been particularly busy, and it was felt extravagent to have carriages on hire which (basically) were only required to avoid people having to stand for 10 minutes into Temple Meads in the morning and 6 minutes out in the evening.

Problem was ... growth has been 9.3% compound at Keynsham and 7.6% compound at Oldfield Park, and what just looks like a few percentage points one year builds up.   Keynsham last year had 412,600 journeys rather than the 183,000 anticipated, and Oldfield Park had 313,000 rather than the 163,000 anticipated.  And whilst plans have been changed to bring in more carriages, they don't grow on trees, they cost a lot of money to hire (more than the extra income they make if only really needed at the peak), and the story's the same in lots of other places.

No spare HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) around ... though I think a couple of HST stops at Keynsham are in the timetable?   Plans are to double the local service under Metro West - with twice the frequency of trains calling at the two stations, but that's years rather than months int the future.  And again the economic case is really made if you can get good loadings all through the day; a quick look at a timetable shows 30 services calling at Keynsham into Bristol at present - so that's 60 trains overall (both directions) ... about 20,000 services a year, which is an average of 10 people getting onto and 10 people getting off each train (say 4 getting in and out of each carriage if you take the trains as being 2 or 3 carriages long).    The maths is frightening - start working out percentage seat occupation though the day ...

[stuving]

I fear you'll have to wait for the new millennium (March 2019, in this context). I'm assuming you are talking about the peak-flow directions into Bristol for work and then out, though that's not quite clear.

The Service Level Commitment for the GW^▸ (Great Western) franchise actually calls for only 1 train/hr plus one more within 16:30-18:30 on the Bristol-Westbury local services, so GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) are already running more than that. But it's really capacity that counts, not the number of trains. Here, the SLC^▸ (Service Level Commitment) is much less detailed.

The Capacity Requirement is only defined into Paddington and a few other cites, and in terms of the morning peak only. Common sense says that the evening service has to match it, but if there is a note somewhere saying that I've not found it. For Bristol TM^‡(resolve), the current (May 2015) capacity has to be at least maintained until March 2019, and that is 3402 on trains to/from London and 6462 on other trains. It's not divided by route, and peak means arrivals from 7 to 9 a.m..

After March 2019, the requirement is split into 7-8 and 8-9, and is 4100+800 on London trains and 9000+4100 on other trains. That's roughly double. (The words actually call this "an increment", which would mean a tripling, but I suspect that's sloppy wording.)

This is made possible by all those DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) cascading across the country to escape from marauding volts. Whether that will actually happen with the implied timings is anyone's guess.

[Spaceship]

No spare HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) around ...

Several years ago I remember seeing some Mk2^▸ (Mark 2 coach) or Mk3 stock sitting in sidings at Ludgershall, probably mothballed for the MOD and there were some older Mk3's rolling round the west region hauled by a 66 that I remember turning up a Weymouth once when there also seemed to be a stock shortage. Its a pity that there isn't a bay platform at Bath either only the loops to the west and east for having a train lay over in, but I doubt that they can increase capacity on the number of trains going out along that line. It does look really full on Real Time Trains timetables and they have to allow frieight / special pathing as well.

Surely there must be a few spare 156's kicking about somewhere. I must admit I have had one or two trains that have been 5 carriages    where they have coupled a 150 and a 156 together. They could couple two 156's up and get 6 carriages, again I think this would sort the problems of overcrowding. They could run as far as Westbury and then detach.

[John R]

There really are no spare dmu's around at the moment, anywhere in the country. And if there were there are several TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company)'s that would be keen to snap them up. And I believe a couple of the peak services do already detach units at Westbury to try and maximise capacity.

Though I'm slightly more optimistic in terms of when Thames valley electrification will start to release some turbos.  The line should be available as far as Didcot by December 17, so I'm sure GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) will be keen to get their Class 387s earning their keep as soon as possible. The question is whether the Turbos released will be able to be used to enhance capacity in the west immediately, as there may be commitments in terms of releasing Class 150 stock for the Northern franchises that contractually have to be kept.   

[LiskeardRich]

A solution could be to use an HST^▸ (High Speed Train) on the local services

There isn't the fleet capacity to utilise HSTs for local stopping services. They are predominately long distance rolling stock designed to move people to/from larger stations or to/from London and the regions.

They managed to find HSTs on summer Plymouth to Penzance stoppers last summer- a look at the timetable will highlight which ones by the Plymouth to Penzance stopper services with 1st class.
This year doesn't seem to be same frequency of the stoppers with 1st class only:

Saturdays
0818, 1752 ex Plymouth
and
1500 ex Penzance.

Last summer a HST spent all day Saturday running back and forth between Penzance and Plymouth.

[Spaceship]

Oh well hopefully the Roscos will order some more to meet demand? But I guess we will end up with 165's or 166's to go with the 156's and 158s.

On Westbury / Weymouth services they run 2x 150's or a 2 car 156 and 150 coupled up and detach them at Westbury with the 156 usually proceeding to Weymouth - which makes sense to me. Its when they run a 2 car in lieu of a usual 4 car that it gets interesting at temple meads.....

Something that I usually forget about is the SWT^▸ (South West Trains) service that runs into Temple Meads about 8.30am - I have to always remember that it has 1st class taking up half of one of the 3 carriages.

Just have to wait and see I guess.

[grahame]

Oh well hopefully the Roscos will order some more to meet demand? But I guess we will end up with 165's or 166's to go with the 156's and 158s.

That's been a hope in the past but not happened.  RoSCos ordering capital equipment need to be reassured it will have a 30 year payback, not the 10 years of a long franchise so won't order without DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) guarantee, especially as creeping electrification reduces the need for diesels.    Besides, if you have a scarce product you can make more money by auctioning it to the highest lease bidder whereas is there were to be a glut of trains there would be less money in it per train, so it's in the RoSCos interest to tend towards a shortage.

Didn't think we had 156s in the area?  They're like a pair of 153s and I understood they were native to the east of England.

[phile]

156s in the East Midlands,  North West and North East of England and even more extensively
in Scotland.

[Timmer]

156s did briefly operate on the Cardiff-Portsmouth line I think in late 88-89 whilst the entire 155 (now 153s in our part of the world) fleet had to go away for repairs due to faulty doors.

[Spaceship]

Oh Im probably wrong its probably a 158 with a smudged '8' that looks like a 6! The type with slow doors that open outwards then sideways at the ends of the carriages.

[LiskeardRich]

Oh Im probably wrong its probably a 158 with a smudged '8' that looks like a 6! The type with slow doors that open outwards then sideways at the ends of the carriages.

Sounds like 153? Single carriage ?

[Spaceship]

No 3 carriages double door opening at the end, lots of them about that's why I thought they were 156's as I didn't think there were many 158's around.

[JayMac]

No 3 carriages double door opening at the end, lots of them about that's why I thought they were 156's as I didn't think there were many 158's around.

GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) have 15 Class 158 DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit). 13 are three-car units (12 hybrid - converted from 18 two-car units (1589xx), 1 as-built three-car unit (158798)). Plus a further 2 two-car units (158763, 158766).

GWR have no Class 156 units.