Number of trains in British fleet 'could almost double'

[whole diary]

[grahame]

From Railnews

THE number of trains in Britain is set to increase dramatically over the next 30 years in response to growing passenger demand, according to a new industry report.

The latest Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy, the fourth in the series, has just been published by the Rolling Stock Strategy Steering Group, which has members from the Rail Delivery Group and rolling stock companies.

It predicts that the fleet will have grown by between 51 and 99 per cent by 2045, with between 13,000 and 20,00 new electric vehicles having been built. It also expects that more than nine out of ten trains will be electrically-powered by 2034.

To keep up with demand, an average of 17 vehicles a week will be built over the next five years alone.

...

An increase of just 2.5% per annum, compound, for 29 years would double the number of passengers in 30 years - and an increase of 4% per annum would triple traffic.   It shouldn't be a shock that the number of trains on the tracks  could double ... and of course we'll need more tracks.   "Six tracks, Now!"

[PhilWakely]

From Railnews

......
It also expects that more than nine out of ten trains will be electrically-powered by 2034.
...

So, the expectation is that 90% of UK^▸ (United Kingdom) trains will operate on just 35% of the UK network - unless there are going to be significant electrification projects over the next 18 years? Or the vast majority of new builds will be bi-modal?

[simonw]

Once all the main routes are done, and NR^» (Network Rail - home page) have all the automatic equipment, they'll progressively upgrade other lines as time goes bike, just like other countries .. probably

[TaplowGreen]

Just a shame that rises in passenger demand have been so hopelessly underestimated over the last 20-30 years.

[IndustryInsider]

Yes, and that the cost of a new train, even a no frills one, is eye-wateringly high.

[Noggin]

Once all the main routes are done, and NR^» (Network Rail - home page) have all the automatic equipment, they'll progressively upgrade other lines as time goes bike, just like other countries .. probably

Certainly once routes have modern signalling (which is immune to traction currents) and the main stations have been electrified, then the business case for further electrification becomes much better, particularly if there are electro-diesel units using the route anyway (for which electric traction will be cheaper and allow higher speeds and acceleration). Electrification is never going to be a particularly cheap exercise, but as NR and its contractors gain more experience, it should get faster to do, costs should come down and perhaps most importantly, the costs should be more predictable, which also improves the business case for projects as less contingency is required.

So, roughly speaking, we have the following schemes in progress:
- North West England
- Glasgow to Edinburgh
- GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) to Swansea, Bristol TM^‡(resolve), Newbury & Oxford
- GOBLIN

The following have not started but are a reasonable certainty:
- MML^» (Midland Main Line. - about)
- Transpennine
- Welsh Valleys
- Hull
- HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s))

There have been a number of exercises to prioritise lines in the North of England but the following would seem like good candidates for CP7:
- Chester and North Wales
- Hope Valley
- Bristol to Birmingham
- Oxford to Birmingham
- Bristol to Exeter, Newbury to Taunton
- Possibly Basingstoke to Exeter
- Chiltern (dependent on the Underground's SSR resignalling IIRC^▸ (if I recall/remember/read correctly))

That's a lot of route miles.

As for costs of new stock, yes DMU^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) stock is very expensive, mainly because of the pollution control gubbins they have to have, but EMU^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) stock isn't particularly expensive. The one exception to this was the first round of the IEPs^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.), mainly because the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) made such a hash of the procurement, but the suggestion has been that Hitachi are now pricing the units *very* competitively and getting a lot of business as a result.

[stuving]

So, the expectation is that 90% of UK^▸ (United Kingdom) trains will operate on just 35% of the UK network - unless there are going to be significant electrification projects over the next 18 years? Or the vast majority of new builds will be bi-modal?

I'm not sure that's such a surprise - the busiest 35% of the railway network probably does carry 90% of all train-miles, and even more of passenger-miles.

But the figures RSSSG are using are NR^» (Network Rail - home page)'s ones for STMs (single track miles), for which the original CP5^▸ (Control Period 5 - the five year period between 2014 and 2019) electrifications would bring the electric fraction up to 51%. That's mostly still due to happen, though a bit later. They then use three assumed levels of further electrification work, though with different end dates (which looks odd, but does make some sense): 62% by 2034 / 67% by 2039 / 72% by 2045.

Since the priority for electrification is always going to favour the busier routes, the proportion of trains will be higher than that. Note that they are including as "electric" anything with a pantograph or third-rail collection - that includes bi-modes as electric, but would exclude fuel cells or short-charged battery units. So even the 'low' assumption gives 90% of trains electric in 2039 vs. 70% now.

[grahame]

Have we allowed for diesel trains running on electric lines?    165s / 166s on Portsmouth - Cardiff, with just the Wilton to Bathampton section being diesel ... or perhaps Wilton - Westbury - Bradford Jn - Thingley will have been electrified as part of the North - South spine relief, leaving just Bradford to Bathampton unelectrified?

[John R]

Wilton to Redbridge is not electrified?

[grahame]

Wilton to Redbridge is not electrified?

No / not at present, but as one of the fill-ins / thoughts it could well be in the next 20 years - or at least Redbridge to Laverstock.

[ellendune]

The following have not started but are a reasonable certainty:
- MML^» (Midland Main Line. - about)
- Transpennine
- Welsh Valleys
- Hull
- HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s))

Shouldn't Southampton to Birmingham be in this list ( or at least the next)
Also East West Rail (Oxford to Blechley and Bedford)