GWR Performance Figures

[whole diary]

[IndustryInsider]

Latest period graphs attached.  As to be expected, another solid month.  Bristol performance has climbed enough to come out of season ticket charter discounts for the first time since Autumn 2017, though of course season tickets renewals have fallen through the floor.

[IndustryInsider]

The latest period's graphs are attached.  The first of the two main periods that are affected by the leaf fall season, and the general slight dip in performance and reliability is probably the result of that.

Wales to South Coast has climbed above the season ticket trigger reliability threshold for the first time since I've been noting them down (over three years now).  This means only two of the ten categories are now below the trigger point for 5% renewal discounts,  Plymouth/Cornwall reliability, and London & Thames Valley punctuality.  The latter is still only at 82.4%, some 6.6% below the trigger level and now has fewer trains than before so the MAA^▸ (Moving Annual Average) is taking longer to respond to the affects of the pandemic, but it on a trajectory where it will be above the trigger level in four or five periods time.

[IndustryInsider]

The usual graphs are attached covering the period up to 12th December, so the last one where the leaf fall season had an impact on performance.  A general upward trend on the previous period, and far better results than the same period last year, meant the MAA^▸ (Moving Annual Average) (Moving Annual Average) either climbed or stayed steady across the board for both the punctuality and reliability metrics.

The Plymouth/Cornwall reliability figure was 98.1%, which is 0.4% below the season ticket discount threshold of 98.5%, but the MAA actually rose to 98.6% (last year the same period was a woeful 95.9%), meaning no more season ticket renewal discounts of 5%.  The only discount now offered across the network is 5% for LTV^▸ (London [and] Thames Valley) seasons as its punctuality metric is still below the trigger point.

This was all before the COVID related crew shortages and flooding events took hold though, so it will be very interesting to see how next period shapes up.

[IndustryInsider]

This was all before the COVID related crew shortages and flooding events took hold though, so it will be very interesting to see how next period shapes up.

Well, the data is in.  And it's a tale of highs and lows, or punctuality and reliability.

Punctuality was better than the corresponding period last year despite the flooding and crew shortages.  All six sectors saw their Moving Annual Average (MAA^▸ (Moving Annual Average)) rise, with HSS^▸ (High Speed Services) now at 93.5%.  The actual figures for the period weren't exactly amazing, but this time last year it was the launch of the new timetable, so everything took a bit of a hit as a result of that.

Reliability however came crashing down.  With Plymouth depot very much the worst hit with Covid related staff unavailability, we saw the Plymouth/Cornwall sector drop to just 90.4% reliability, which is over 5% lower (or twice as bad) as the previous low I'd noted in the last three years.  That was enough to drag the MAA down to 98.2%, below the charter discount trigger it had climbed above only one period ago!  The HSS figure was also poor at 95.4%, but that was only slightly lower than the same period last year, so the MAA dropped just 0.1%.

Graphs attached...

[IndustryInsider]

Two more attachments...

[TaplowGreen]

HSS^▸ (High Speed Services) 95.4% reliability in December?

How on Earth could that be the case given the large amount of foreshortenings & cancellations due to crew shortages?

[IndustryInsider]

At a (very) rough guess, a percentage figure like that would equate to around 300 cancellations over the period based on the daily number of HSS^▸ (High Speed Services) trains that run.  There were a few days with around 30 cancellations/part cancellations, but for over half of the period there were none or very few.

Also, I remember events outside of the railway's control were exempt from the original passengers' charter scheme that these figures are derived from.  Things like fatalities are covered by that, but I'm not sure about flooding.

[TaplowGreen]

At a (very) rough guess, a percentage figure like that would equate to around 300 cancellations over the period based on the daily number of HSS^▸ (High Speed Services) trains that run.  There were a few days with around 30 cancellations/part cancellations, but for over half of the period there were none or very few.

Also, I remember events outside of the railway's control were exempt from the original passengers' charter scheme that these figures are derived from.  Things like fatalities are covered by that, but I'm not sure about flooding.

Ah I see - so presumably all the COVID related crew shortage cancellations/part cancellations would have also been excluded from the figures as outside of the railway's control? That may also explain the figures appearing unrealistically good!

[IndustryInsider]

No. I think they would have been included, it is the ones relating to the flooding I am not so sure about. That would explain why the two sectors that Plymouth depot are partly responsible for supplying crews for (Devon/Cornwall and HSS^▸ (High Speed Services)) fared much worse than the others for cancellations.  Plymouth depot was of course where the COVID cases and self-isolations hit a very high level.

HSS would have planned to operate about 9000 trains during the period (again that is just my rough estimate) mostly on routes that were largely unaffected, so if there were around 300 hundred cancellations, which looking back at posts from the time looks about right, that would equal around 5%.

[IndustryInsider]

Normal (good) service has resumed following the previous period being affected by Covid-19 staff shortages and bad weather.

Graphs attached.

[IndustryInsider]

Latest graphs attached following Period 12's results.

As discussed in the Delay-Repay thread already, the big development was the LTV^▸ (London [and] Thames Valley) punctuality MAA^▸ (Moving Annual Average) (Moving Annual Average) climbing above the season ticket discount trigger level for the first time in as long as I can remember, and something that would have been unthinkable just over a year ago.  Obviously that is due to the Covid pandemic and the large uplift in performance as a result, but the MAA has climbed over 10% since the same period last year, to 91.4%.

Other sectors continued to post good results with all other MAA's rising with the exception of Devon reliability which stayed level at its already high mark of 99.5%.

The 'Plymouth/Cornwall' reliability metric is now the only one which is triggering a charter discount across the TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company), 0.2% below the trigger point of 98.5%.  That small increase might take some achieving though as the Covid affected period late last year led to a 90.4% reliability score which will be a big weight on the MAA until the end of this year.

With the announcement that season tickets will be dealt with under the Delay-Repay scheme, I wonder whether the traditional charter figures will continue to be published?  They are only directly relevant to season ticket holders, though give a reasonably accurate picture of how GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) are performing.  Though, whatever happens, it is good news IMHO^▸ (in my humble opinion) that the much fairer Delay-Repay system will be applying to season tickets as well

[TaplowGreen]

So much easier to run a railway on time without passengers! 

[Sixty3Closure]

And commuting is so less stressful without having to go to the office...

[TaplowGreen]

And commuting is so less stressful without having to go to the office...

A lot cheaper too!

[IndustryInsider]

One year on from the effects of the pandemic.

A huge leap upwards in train performance.  At the start of the pandemic we had five of the twelve charter groups giving a discount, that is now just one.  The number of trains that are arriving at stations early or on time throughout the day has increase by 13.6% from 66.7% to 80.3%, and trains arriving within 15 minutes - at the point the Delay Repay refunds start - has risen from 97.6% to 98.9%.

Where should the rail industry be striving to get to when normality returns?  Well, it's obvious that less peak trains will be needed than pre-covid levels, and perhaps less off-peak ones as well.  But it's also obvious that there will be many more passengers that we have seen over the last 12 months and the actual number of trains running is likely to return to somewhere between 90-95% of the pre-covid levels. 

Perhaps a figure mid-way between where we were at the start of restrictions and where we are now would be a good target point?

Usual graphs attached...