Cross-border train routes will not be split into 'English' and 'Welsh' services

[whole diary]

[grahame]

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/cross-border-train-routes-could-10785491?

The Welsh Government has launched a consultation on the next Welsh rail franchise ^ without mentioning that cross-border routes such as Aberystwyth to Birmingham could be broken into separate Welsh and English services.

Passengers^ group Railfuture Cymru warns the omission of the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) Government^s ^bullying^ plans to break up the franchise in 2018 will distort responses and diminish the consultation^s value. ...

"All Change" at Hawarden Bridge, Chester, Shrewsbury, Newport and Knighton?

[stuving]

What that agreement says about rail in general, and cross-border services in particular, is this:

Rail

2.5.6  The Silk Commission recommended  that the Welsh Ministers should  become the franchising authority in respect of the Wales  and the Borders rail  franchise. The Government is already implementing this recommendation.   

2.5.7  The Prime Minister announced  on 21 November 2014 that the UK^▸ (United Kingdom)  Government had reached an agreement  with the Welsh Government to  ensure both the Valley Lines Electrification and Gr eat Western Mainline  Electrification schemes can proceed.  As part of this announcement he also confirmed that the UK Government will devolve the Wales and Borders franchise.

2.5.8  The Welsh Government will have  full responsibility for specifying and  procuring a rail franchise to deliver services after the existing Wales and  Borders franchise expires in 2018. The Department for Transport (DfT^» (Department for Transport - about)) is already working closely with the Wels h Government to ensure that Welsh Ministers are solely responsible for letting and managing the new franchise  (see Box 3). 

2.5.9   The UK Government agrees that the Welsh Government should be fully consulted on the specification of inter-city franchises to and from Wales. Train services which start, end or stop at stat ions in Wales, are designated ^Welsh Services^ and the Secretary of State for Transport has a duty to consult the Welsh Government on them. There is regular and ongoing engagement between the Government and the Welsh Government, and as much information as possible is shared.   

2.5.10   The Government will review how it consults on these services to determine whether there is a need to strengthen the arrangements for engaging with the Welsh Government.

Box 3: Devolution of the Wales and Borders Franchise

The UK Government is devolving executive franchising functions to the  Welsh Government, to enable them to lead on the procurement and  management of the next Wales and Borders franchise. 

The Welsh Government will therefore make a final decision on arrangements for the next franchise. We continue to work with the Welsh Government on the details of the devolved franchise, including how cross-border routes are procured and managed. Cross-border routes are vital for passengers on both  sides of the border and having sufficient safeguards in place to protect all cross-border rail users is extremely important. In order for the Secretary of State for Transport to ensure proper accountability, it is likely that services primarily serving English markets will be placed into other franchises for which the Secretary of State for Transport is the franchising authority.

So what that says in effect is "if there are any services that serve mainly English places and passengers but, run into Wales as well, they should be moved into a franchises under DfT." There's nothing about changing services, only responsibility for them.

So it would all come down to how the two governments get on with each other, and whether this promised more formal (and perhaps strengthened) involvement of the Welsh one in defining and letting franchises works. What could go wrong? You don't think that ministerial childishness, or the retreat of civil servants to their own department's remit and no more, could possibly frustrate that noble ambition, do you?

[chrisr_75]

After this http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-35418829 "Ministers have been accused of wasting tens of millions of pounds buying Cardiff Airport for around double an initial valuation of ^20m-^30m"

...and this http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-35399951 "The first minister has apologised to AMs after a report said taxpayers had lost tens of millions of pounds over the sale of publicly-owned land"

...I personally don't hold much hope in everybodys friend Carwyn and his merry band of Welsh Government gasbags of being capable of securing a better deal for the travelling public in Wales when the franchising system is devolved. Whether that turns out to be any worse than how the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) currently administer things I don't know, but recent finance/transport cock-ups above don't give me a lot of confidence!

[Rhydgaled]

^some services and stations within England that currently run as part of the Wales and Borders franchise^ could be transferred to the West Midlands franchise ^ implying that passengers from Aberystwyth, Newtown, Bangor, Rhyl and many other Welsh stations would lose their regular through trains to Birmingham.

Cutting the Cambrian services off from Birmingham and making passengers change at Shrewsbury would be bonkers, I'm sure there a loads of through passengers who would be inconvienced. Bangor and Rhyl to Birmingham isn't so clear cut, the through service travels via Wrexham and Shrewsbury so it can be quicker to change twice (at Chester and Crewe) to get from north Wales to Birmingham. However, I seem to recall there were major complaints when it was suggested that Wrexham might lose one of the through services to Birmingham to free up a 158 for the Cambrian. For that route, I would suggest a new regular through service from Bangor to Crewe, cutting one change off the direct route, and cutting the current Birmingham-Wrexham-Holyhead service back to just Birmingham-Wrexham or Birmingham-Wrexham-Chester. That would also mean the service between Chester and Bangor/Holyhead isn't reliant on the ERTMS^▸ (European Rail Traffic Management System.)-equipped 158s (the train from Holyhead to Birmingham forms the next service to the ERTMS-only Cambrian, and vice-versa).

He said he could not understand why the consultation document did not warn that ^well-known and profitable^ routes such as Carmarthen to Manchester via Swansea and Cardiff could be broken up.

That one should be broken up in my view. Between Swansea and Manchester it is very busy and needs longer trains, but if you made them long enough they would be quite empty west of Llanelli if not west of Swansea. Ideally, I would like the Wales&Borders franchise to keep the Swansea-Manchester service, but then I also think they need to make good use of electrification when it finally reaches Swansea, and retain through trains from Carmarthen to Cardiff (via the Swansea District Line, the time taken to go via Swansea makes the current through service pretty pointless in my view). Thus, west of Bridgend would have:

• hourly Swanline stoppers (electric)
• hourly London train (probably bi-mode sardine midgets, unfortunately)
• hourly Cardiff-Carmarthen express (DMU^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit))
• hourly Swansea-Bristol (electric)
• hourly Swansea-Manchester (4-5-carriage diesel train)

Add that to the fact there are plans for Cardiff-Maesteg trains every half hour and the Cardiff-Bridgend stretch would be very full (7tph, of mixed speed, plus freight) such that I'm not sure its feesible to squeese it all in. If I had to drop one, I'm afraid it would have to be the Manchester (because it is the only service that can't make use of the wires other than the Carmarthen express which I consider essential, and because passenger flows are generally either north-south or east-west, so anything with a big kink in it like Swansea-Cardiff(east-west)-Manchester(north-south) is less important for through passengers), so that gets cut back to Cardiff-Manchester which makes it predominately an English service and might fit better with another franchise.

Apart from that, not much scope to transfer workings to English TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company) without making passengers change on seriously important flows or handing nearly everything except the south Wales routes to English TOCs. The only Welsh Government managed services north of Shrewsbury would be the Holyhead-Cardiff trains (which I'd cut to three each way per day, because it is another 'big kink' service (north-south from Cardiff to Chester, then east-west to Holyhead)).

[Richard Fairhurst]

Crewe to Shrewsbury is the obvious one to transfer, probably to LM^▸ (London Midland - recent franchise). If I were to go full crayonista I'd suggest extending it to form a stopping service from Crewe to Hereford, enabling a more regular service at the Marches stations, and conversely speeding up a few of the long-distance Welsh services.

[Rhydgaled]

Crewe to Shrewsbury is the obvious one to transfer, probably to LM^▸ (London Midland - recent franchise).

Yep, I suppose that would seem to make some sense. Make it hourly too (with alternate workings calling at all stations, the others at Nantwhich, Whitchurch and perhaps Wem) so that the Manchesters can all run non-stop Shrewsbury-Crewe. The only possible problem is all the bay platforms at Shrewsbury face south, meaning linking the Crewe service with the HOWL one might help with capacity through the station?

If I were to go full crayonista I'd suggest extending it to form a stopping service from Crewe to Hereford, enabling a more regular service at the Marches stations, and conversely speeding up a few of the long-distance Welsh services.

How regular do you envisage the marches services being? If the W&B franchise is going to remain largely intact I'd suggest hourly Cardiff-Wrexham-Chester services, serving all the current stations, plus the hourly Manchester (with some calls removed) and an hourly Cardiff/Ebbw Vale - Hereford service to take stops like Cwmbran off the Manchester working and an enhanced HOWL service calling at Craven Arms and Church Stretton.

HOWL = Heart Of Wales Line

[Richard Fairhurst]

Really, the minimum for Leominster-Church Stretton should be an hourly service to each of Hereford and Shrewsbury, supplemented in the peaks as required. At present there are some pretty nasty gaps in the timetable at Craven Arms and Church Stretton, while the skip-stop pattern complicates journeys between the local stations.

Heart of Wales services (obviously!) don't go to Hereford, so are better viewed as a pleasant extra for Craven Arms and Church Stretton rather than part of the core service. The danger of relying on HOWL services to provide key Church Stretton/Craven Arms trains was shown with the recent timetable recast, which has significantly worsened the morning service for these two stations.

[Rhydgaled]

Really, the minimum for Leominster-Church Stretton should be an hourly service to each of Hereford and Shrewsbury, supplemented in the peaks as required. At present there are some pretty nasty gaps in the timetable at Craven Arms and Church Stretton, while the skip-stop pattern complicates journeys between the local stations.

So my suggestion of an hourly Cardiff-Wrexham/Chester serving them would do the trick for Church Stretton/Craven Arms then (Ludlow and Leominster are quite a bit bigger than Church Stretton/Craven Arms, and obviously can't be served by HOWL trains, so I might suggest the Manchesters call at those two to give them 2tph).

Heart of Wales services (obviously!) don't go to Hereford, so are better viewed as a pleasant extra for Craven Arms and Church Stretton rather than part of the core service. The danger of relying on HOWL services to provide key Church Stretton/Craven Arms trains was shown with the recent timetable recast, which has significantly worsened the morning service for these two stations.

Good point, but an hourly Cardiff-Wrexham/Chester with HOWL services as 'pleasant extras' seems like a good level of service to me compared to much larger places which get only one train per 2 hours (eg. Haverfordwest and Aberystwyth (still some 2hr gaps despite claims of a hourly service being introduced for the latter recently)).

[grahame]

Variation of the story

Rail Minister Claire Perry said: ^There are no plans to split any of the cross-border services, which will continue to run directly between England and Wales without the need for customers to change trains.^

[snip]

First minister Carwyn Jones last week said: ^It appears that in the Department for Transport they want to see no service that begins in Wales and terminates in England operated by the Wales and Borders franchise.

In other words, the only services that would be run by that franchise would be services that begin and end in Wales.^

Much more to put the comments into context at http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/welsh-rail-services-train-stations-10832810?

[Chris from Nailsea]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

Welsh rail franchise 'to keep cross-border services'


The Wales and Borders franchise is currently operated by Arriva Trains Wales

Plans to devolve the Wales and Borders rail franchise will include existing cross-border services, the Welsh Government has said.

The UK^▸ (United Kingdom) government said in 2015 some services that primarily serve England could be given to other firms.

But the Welsh Government has now said it has reached an understanding the current franchise map will remain intact.

Four companies are bidding to run the network.

The UK government agreed in 2014 to devolve the Wales and Borders franchise.

But the 2015 St David's Day command paper - a document which paved the way for the Wales Bill currently passing through parliament - said it was "likely" services primarily for English markets would be put in franchises under the authority of the UK transport secretary.

This prompted concerns services such as Aberystwyth to Birmingham and Milford Haven to Manchester would be split at the border, with passengers potentially having to change trains.

The Welsh Government said it had "reached an understanding" with the UK Department for Transport that the current Wales and Borders franchise map "will remain intact".

Its spokesman added there were also opportunities for operating new routes to Bristol and Liverpool "if train paths can be secured".

John Rogers, a committee member of railway campaigning group Rail Future, described the idea of splitting up cross-border services as "completely stupid".

"Common sense has surfaced at last," he said.

[Noggin]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

Welsh rail franchise 'to keep cross-border services'


The Wales and Borders franchise is currently operated by Arriva Trains Wales

Plans to devolve the Wales and Borders rail franchise will include existing cross-border services, the Welsh Government has said.

{snip}

Liverpool is presumably to North Wales via the re-instated Halton Curve. I wonder what they have in mind for Bristol? 

There has been a suggestion elsewhere that Swansea to Cardiff electrification is on hold indefinitely, I wonder if that has anything to do with it?

[Chris from Nailsea]

In view of the recent clarification, I've now updated the heading of this topic, for clarity.  CfN. 

[Rhydgaled]

Liverpool is presumably to North Wales via the re-instated Halton Curve. I wonder what they have in mind for Bristol? 

There has been a suggestion elsewhere that Swansea to Cardiff electrification is on hold indefinitely, I wonder if that has anything to do with it?

Liverpool is presumably via the Halton Curve yes, the interesting question is whether that would be Holyhead, Bangor, Llandudno or Wrexham to Liverpool? As for Bristol, I think there has been alot of forum chatter about a Swansea-Bristol EMU^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) service (but then the CDF^» (Cardiff - next trains)-SWA^» (Swansea - next trains) wires slipped to CP6^▸ (Control Period 6 - The five year period between 2019 and 2024), where does this 'on hold indefinitely' come from?).

[Noggin]

As for Bristol, I think there has been alot of forum chatter about a Swansea-Bristol EMU^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) service (but then the CDF^» (Cardiff - next trains)-SWA^» (Swansea - next trains) wires slipped to CP6^▸ (Control Period 6 - The five year period between 2019 and 2024), where does this 'on hold indefinitely' come from?).

Thanks, came from a usually reliable poster on WNXX^▸ (Stored Unserviceable, Mainline Locos HQ All Classes) who was suggesting that the IET^▸ (Intercity Express Train)'s would be using their diesel engines between Cardiff and Swansea for a very long time.

[anthony215]

As for Bristol, I think there has been alot of forum chatter about a Swansea-Bristol EMU^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) service (but then the CDF^» (Cardiff - next trains)-SWA^» (Swansea - next trains) wires slipped to CP6^▸ (Control Period 6 - The five year period between 2019 and 2024), where does this 'on hold indefinitely' come from?).

Thanks, came from a usually reliable poster on WNXX^▸ (Stored Unserviceable, Mainline Locos HQ All Classes) who was suggesting that the IET^▸ (Intercity Express Train)'s would be using their diesel engines between Cardiff and Swansea for a very long time.

There will be uproar West of Cardiff then if that is the case