English National Concessionary Travel Pass - how accurate is usage data?

[whole diary]

[grahame]

From TravelWatch NorthWest - English National Concessionary Travel Pass Survey 2015

Have you ever wondered how effective and accurate the "bus pass" scheme is, and the effect of any inaccuracies in the measurement of that significant group of passengers on overall services specification accuracy?

Report published 12th November 2015, http://www.travelwatch-northwest.org.uk

114 journeys made over 23 operator / local authority combinations during the summer.

Only on 14% (17% last year) of occasions was the photo checked. On 10% (14%) a succseeful scan did not take place. On 68% of occasions (49%) no instructions on the ticket machine regarding the presentation of the pass were discernible or easily read.  On 82% of occasions (86%) a ticket was issued. Where tickets were issued, on 8% (17%) of occasions they appeared to show the destination incorrectly.  On 89% of occasions (95%), the bus driver was pleasant and helpful. No inspectors were observed checking tickets.

[snip] Considerable extra daya and conclusion.  The report notes ...

* Travel concessions are of no use if services do not exist.

* There is a concern that in some areas additional costs generated by ENCTS^▸ (English National Concessionary Travel Scheme) are not properly reimbursed both to the LTA^▸ (Local Transport Authority) and the operator and that this is a factor contributing to the erosion of bus services.

* The withdrawal of local bus services is leading to increased deprivation and isolation for many who do not have access to private transport, especially in rural areas.

[JayMac]

Isn't it important for bus operators to ensure they are recording concessionary travel accurately? Isn't that data used in part to determine their payments from local authorities?

I understand the formula used to calculate payments is quite complex and actual journeys undertaken are only one statistic used. But if operators are under recording then complaining they aren't covering costs (the formula is meant to leave operators no better or worse off than if ENCTS^▸ (English National Concessionary Travel Scheme) didn't exist) then that isn't the fault of the scheme.

Is there a link to the 2015 report? Im struggling to find it online (although I did find and read one for 2014) and the OP^▸ (Original Poster / topic starter) only points to the TWNW^▸ (TravelWatch NorthWest) home page.

[LiskeardRich]

Interesting to read 82% of passengers received a ticket. I know First haven't issued tickets to concessionary pass holders since January or February.

[grahame]

Is there a link to the 2015 report? Im struggling to find it online (although I did find and read one for 2014) and the OP^▸ (Original Poster / topic starter) only points to the TWNW^▸ (TravelWatch NorthWest) home page.

Published today and circulated quite widely by email.  Doesn't appear to have made it to their website.  On the basis that they want it to be read, and there is the 2014 precedent of publicising openly without charge, I've put a copy at http://atrebatia.info/ENCTSreport_1115.pdf for the moment.

[stuving]

This is rather odd. The DfT^» (Department for Transport - about)'s recommended method for calculating reimbursements doesn't use the actual journey cost or length at all, partly because it can't use whether you used some "bulk" ticket (e.g. day or week) - since a pass user would not buy one. Instead, it uses a flat rate per journey, which also allows for the way smartcards are used, i.e. without asking for a destination or fare in most cases.

Note that, as their guidance says: "TCAs^▸ (Track Circuit Actuator) are free to use the methodology of their choice in estimating reimbursement subject to ensuring compliance with European regulation No 1370/2007 as well as relevant domestic legislation that governs concessionary travel reimbursement." I have no idea whether any TCA has actually invented its own method (and of course checked its compliance with all that legislation), nor where to look to find out.

The calculation of this daily rate, so as to approximate well enough to the revenue neutral ideal, depends on good input data. These need to cover such things as what fraction of pass users would have paid the fare, or bought some other ticket, and what the journey cost distribution would have been, though here is a lot more than that. They offer some default data, suitable for allocating smartcard counts to ticket types:

Smartcard Data Ticket Choice Assignment
H.9 Smartcard data on journey frequencies from the NoWcard scheme have been used to model how concessionary passholders would allocate themselves to different ticket types (cash, daily and weekly tickets) and fares at free fares. The data provides information on the concessionary journeys of about 90,000 passholders made over a five-week period in four Lancashire districts.

H.10 The data have been summarised to give the number of concessionary journeys made in each day of the five-week period, as well as the number of journeys made in each of the five weeks. The summarised data have then been used to simulate how the observed travel patterns would map onto different ticket types, assuming different combinations of price ratios.

There's a lot more of that kind of stuff in the guidance note. And theory, and algebra - lots of those too.

[brompton rail]

Interesting to read 82% of passengers received a ticket. I know First haven't issued tickets to concessionary pass holders since January or February.

First South Yorkshire do issue tickets, though they had a period of about a month earlier in the year when they ceased issuing tickets only to re-start. Caused confusion!

In PTE^▸ (Passenger Transport Executive) areas surveys are conducted regularly to collect travel information by the PTE. This is used to inform discussions between the Bus Operators group and the PTE regarding reimbursement.

[Tim]

On more than one occasion in Bath, the bus driver selling me my ticket has issued multiple concessionary tickets in order to advance the paper through the ticket machine after a paper jam.

[grahame]

On more than one occasion in Bath, the bus driver selling me my ticket has issued multiple concessionary tickets in order to advance the paper through the ticket machine after a paper jam.

Isn't that rather like making a benefits claim for children you don't have?

[LiskeardRich]

On more than one occasion in Bath, the bus driver selling me my ticket has issued multiple concessionary tickets in order to advance the paper through the ticket machine after a paper jam.

Isn't that rather like making a benefits claim for children you don't have?

Sounds almost fraudulent if the company then gets paid for multiple journeys.

[stuving]

On more than one occasion in Bath, the bus driver selling me my ticket has issued multiple concessionary tickets in order to advance the paper through the ticket machine after a paper jam.

Isn't that rather like making a benefits claim for children you don't have?

Well, not if the drivers declares them as having been scrap back at base. As they would all (presumably) have the same card number recorded for them, in theory that could be detected later in the reporting process.

[onthecushions]

An acquaintance who is a director of Reading Buses told me that his undertaking receives just over ^0.60 per journey recorded on the concession card readers.

This compares with a lowest short distance fare (on the Emerald Whitley Street Flyers) of ^1.20.

They have still advanced the start time to 0900 from 0930 but the deadline remains at 2300, before the final few non-night buses. They also have a stunningly modern fleet of 11m double deckers.

OTC

[JayMac]

An acquaintance who is a director of Reading Buses told me that his undertaking receives just over ^0.60 per journey recorded on the concession card readers.

That would seem to suggest the scheme isn't complying with one of it's core aims. That operators should be no better or worse off than if the scheme didn't exist.

[John R]

That doesn't necessarily follow. The assessment could be based on total income, allowing for increased usage as it is free, and also the fact that many of those journeys could be short hops (1 or 2 stops), so don't take up much space for long.

[stuving]

An acquaintance who is a director of Reading Buses told me that his undertaking receives just over ^0.60 per journey recorded on the concession card readers.

This compares with a lowest short distance fare (on the Emerald Whitley Street Flyers) of ^1.20.

They have still advanced the start time to 0900 from 0930 but the deadline remains at 2300, before the final few non-night buses. They also have a stunningly modern fleet of 11m double deckers.

OTC

Not necessarily. Remember, the reimbursement per journey is made up of:
(Fraction who would not have paid a fare) x (marginal cost of one extra passenger)
plus
(Fraction who would have paid a single fare ) x (single fare) 
plus
(Fraction who would have paid a day fare ) x (day fare)  / (number of trips per day fare)
plus
(Fraction who would have paid a weekly fare ) x (weekly fare) / (number of trips per weekly fare)
plus
the same for all other fares.

Approximately. In theory. So, if you (or anyone else) know those figures, you can work out if it's right.

[Chris from Nailsea]

You'd probably need an actuary to work that one out.