Electrification - so Cascade - so congestion easing - delayed.

[whole diary]

[stuving]

It looks to me that the embarrassment factor of having trains doing nothing has distorted the planning for the delayed "new GW^▸ (Great Western)", especially if it is seen as specific to the way the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) order was financed. The issue - trains due and paid for as capital, repayments have to be made even if they are not used - is the same if the money came from a ROSCO^» (Rolling Stock Owning Company - about), a TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company), or HMG. The rest is accounting. Switching the order so that GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) is left permanently with only low-bridge trains is an undesirable change to the real world.

The most pressing need is for the DMU^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) cascade, so that should be the priority. It is not as if replacing HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) with bimodes running on diesel will deliver the new timetable anyway.

HSTs are also needed for cascading to Scotrail, but a start at least can be made once bimodes are running. OK, so you might need to keep using some power cars you would rather put in the bin. And can the East Coast 800s be pulled forward and GW 801s delayed? Some cash adjustment for their higher lease costs would at least give someone a new train to sit in. Of course there are also the '802s', which might also come sooner if the extra design work is as slight as sounds. Surely the paperwork can't be that fixed a delay?

[Tim]

The most sensible thing as I see it would be for some of the HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) to run on the GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) for a few years longer, with derogations from the accessibility regulations as required.  Would that really be the end of the world?

If that causes problems to Hitachi and those who are paying for the new IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) trains, then isn't the answer for the IEPs to be built more slowly, but for the Newton Aycliffe factory to get extra work in compensation for that in the form of the 801 for Scotland (which were going to have to be made abroad because of capacity constraints at Aycliffe) and maybe some further orders of A trains for the likes of TPE^▸ (Trans Pennine Express). 

Hitachi can be kept happy by having their factory kept busy making more trains over a longer period.

Scotland can be kept happy by having perhaps a few more 801s and perhaps getting them earlier in compensation for getting fewer HSTs than promised.

And the taxpayer compensates Hitachi by buying more trains from them rather than by paying out cash for trains to sit unused.

[didcotdean]

GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) have been distancing themselves from Network Rail for months in published information about engineering works etc in preparation for these kind of crunch points. So much for a collegiate approach in a contractorised railway but inevitable where one part can't keep up.

[JayMac]

GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) are still promising us the jam tomorrow on their website and station posters. Network Rail had the recipe for this preserve, but ingredients and a competent confiturier were sadly lacking.

[grahame]

The most pressing need is for the DMU^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) cascade, so that should be the priority. It is not as if replacing HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) with bimodes running on diesel will deliver the new timetable anyway.

And on that basis, shouldn't the electrification sequence out from Paddington have been modified to Reading, Didcot, Oxford, Basingstoke, Newbury, Henley, Windsor, only then Swindon and beyond?

[stuving]

The most pressing need is for the DMU^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) cascade, so that should be the priority. It is not as if replacing HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) with bimodes running on diesel will deliver the new timetable anyway.

And on that basis, shouldn't the electrification sequence out from Paddington have been modified to Reading, Didcot, Oxford, Basingstoke, Newbury, Henley, Windsor, only then Swindon and beyond?

In principle yes. Though it may come down to details like planning, delays in bridge-lifting, etc. To run wires and then trains you need the whole route from end to end, and it only takes a problem at one point, whether a legal or an engineering one, to make you look very silly again. The short routes may be easier to deliver on that basis.

[paul7575]

From Rail Magazine - on sale today...

The first of 58 suburban electric trains arrives early next year, but there is no possibility of the wires being ready for them to run as planned.

Beyond that, a key decision will be to convert the entire order for electric inter-city Hitachi trains into bi-mode variants, fitted with diesel engines

The route that the first of those EMUs^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) will be used on is already wired.  So unlike Rail, I think there is a high possibility that they will run exactly as planned between Paddington and Hayes and Harlington.   I'll agree that there will be significantly more than needed after the first year...

But haven't other rail magazines already reported that the decision to fit all the SETS as bi-mode has been taken?

Paul

[ChrisB]

I'm not aware of anything other than speculation - and Rail says that decision is still in Mark Hopwood's hands....

One date that can't be changed is the loss of Old Oak Common to Crossrail though.

[stuving]

The route that the first of those EMUs^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) will be used on is already wired.  So unlike Rail, I think there is a high possibility that they will run exactly as planned between Paddington and Hayes and Harlington. 

This is what Mark Hopwood is quoted as saying:

^We get our first EMUs in the early months of 2016. We already have wires to Hayes in west London, and we intend to start using them within a few weeks of receiving those trains.

Doesn't that still sound like May? Always providing that the parking spaces at H&H and West Ealing are ready.

But haven't other rail magazines already reported that the decision to fit all the SETS as bi-mode has been taken?

Maybe, but I don't suppose this forum is really going to affect the decision, so we may as well go on opining.

[ChrisB]

Apparently, the slew of HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) heading to Scotrail need to arrive as follows -

ScotRail are required to have at least 24 HST sets in service for the start of the December 2018 timetable, in accordance with the following schedule.
 
Sets 1-2: June 2018
 Sets 3-8: July 2018
 Sets 9-13: October 2018
 Sets 14-18: November 2018
 Sets 19-24: December 2018
 
 They will need to be modified before they go into service with ScotRail, to incorporate such features as power operated doors and other requirements (RVAR, PRM^▸ (Persons with Reduced Mobility)-TSI) to allow them to operate into 2020 and beyond.

[grahame]

Apparently, the slew of HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) heading to Scotrail need to arrive as follows -

If all class 800 and 801 trains were to be bimode and with sufficient diesel engine range and speed to operate services no matter how far the electrification has got, and dangerously assuming that route clearance for 26m carriages is completed on time even if electrification is a few years late, this HST cascade could be uncoupled from the actual electrification work and be based purely on Hitachi delivering the new trains on time.

The issue that is much more concerning is the cascading of class 165 and 166 trains, as my understanding is that the new units which replace them remain pure electric and will not be able to operate beyond where the wires have reached ...

Edit to correct grammar

[ChrisB]

That's still a *very* big IF. As I understand it, rumour.

[IndustryInsider]

The issue that is much more concerning is the cascading of class 165 and 166 trains, as my understanding is that the new units which replace them remain pure electric and will not be able to operate beyond where the wires have reached ...

That's correct, though as long as Paddington to Didcot is available for electric trains - and it should be, by the end of next year at the latest AIUI^▸ (as I understand it) -  then I would hazard a guess that around two-thirds of the planned Turbo cascade could take still place which would be more than enough to set the ball rolling, if not ideal.

[ChrisB]

I can't see GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) being at all keen in supporting two depots both maintaining these 165/166s, so don't expect full utilisation until they're all cascaded, IMHO^▸ (in my humble opinion)

[Adelante_CCT]

I can't see GWR^▸ (Great Western Railway) being at all keen in supporting two depots both maintaining these 165/166s, so don't expect full utilisation until they're all cascaded, IMHO^▸ (in my humble opinion)

But not all the 165/166s are being cascaded? Even after all the electrification is done and Hitachi trains have been built, Reading depot will still be home to around 15 units