I really find it hard to understand how any business in the real world, especially in the state that Network Rail is, can be expected to make an undertaking like that.....of course I guess that the Unions will count on the taxpayer picking up the tab.
A business can make such a statement in good conscience without significant risk if:
a) They have a high staff turnover anyway;
b) They are already having difficulty recruiting or retaining staff;
c) The age profile of its staff leads them to expect more retirements than any possible redundancies (or those nearing retirement who would gladly volunteer if they were given a decent offer);
d) They rely heavily on outside contractors for work that they could bring in house.
What are the big business risks that might cause
NR» suddenly and unforeseeably to need to loose a lot of staff?
Now there are always risks in business, but many businesses are finding they have cases a) & b) at the moment, particularly for skilled staff and those who work unsocial hours. That must cover the vast majority of NR staff.
Also December 2016 is not that far off. A business like NR should be able to see that far ahead.
The main risk of redundancies in NR going forward must be signallers as the old boxes are transferred to the new signalling centres. However they already know which ones are going to close by December 2016 and in our patch most of those should be in commuting distance of Didcot or Cardiff so they would want to redeploy most of them.
Going forward with a bit of careful workforce planning they may be able to extend that time.