Theresa May calls for more rail services from Maidenhead and Twyford

[whole diary]

[a-driver]

Not at all...its asking for improvements that may well stitch up other local constituency commuters while gaining improvements for hers.

I consider that nimbyism too

Surely improved services from Twyford and Maidenhead would free up capacity on the often very crowded stoppers for places such as West Drayton, Hayes and Southall?

True, it probably would free up space on stoppers but it would result in an increase in overcrowding on the fast services because you would need to cut services out in order to fit additional calls at Tywford & Maidenhead in.  There just isn't the space on the mains. 
Things might improve with the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) and a new fleet of electric multiple units with superior acceleration.

[ChrisB]

Indeed, but the proposed IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) timetable has already made use of those too....

[TaplowGreen]

Indeed, but the proposed IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) timetable has already made use of those too....

To what extent is IEP/Crossrail expected to "solve" the overcrowding problem, or is it merely likely to reduce it for a bit in the short term until the increase in passenger numbers swallows up the additional capacity?

[ChrisB]

IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) produces a 20% gain in capacity when run in 'HST^▸ (High Speed Train) lengths' (I reckon that means 9car electrics?) and therefore slightly more than that when two 5car bi-modes form a service.

Your guess is as good as mine re the EMU^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) replacement of the turbos, as they haven't yet been confirmed...

[lordgoata]

The solution is simple - double decker trains. Seeing as they are raising bridges for the electrification, it would be the ideal to raise them sufficiently for that ....

[a-driver]

Indeed, but the proposed IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) timetable has already made use of those too....

To what extent is IEP/Crossrail expected to "solve" the overcrowding problem, or is it merely likely to reduce it for a bit in the short term until the increase in passenger numbers swallows up the additional capacity?

As far as I know, CrossRail platforms are 250m long to accommodate 200m trains so there's is scope to increase capacity in the future. They were original.  It should solve overcrowding as they're going to be 9-car trains with a seating capacity of 450 and a design capacity of 1500.  Big increase on what we have currently. (A 3-car 165 has around 270 seats)
As for the IEP.  I'm not convinced.  5-car IEP trains replacing 8-car HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train)??  I can see another CrossCountry situation happening again.

The solution is simple - double decker trains. Seeing as they are raising bridges for the electrification, it would be the ideal to raise them sufficielntly for that ....

I think they should have built Crossrail tunnels to a double deck gauge as well as lifting bridges to allow for double deck trains.  There's no future planning, it's all short term thinking.

[grahame]

It should solve overcrowding as they're going to be 9-car trains with a seating capacity of 450 and a design capacity of 1500.  Big increase on what we have currently. (A 3-car 165 has around 270 seats)

I'm getting confused with wording again - ?design capacity? - 450 seated and 1050 standing? 2.3 times the number of standees as seats?  Maidenhead to London users will be overjoyed! 

[ChrisB]

Oh, Mrs May wants the IEPs^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) to stop I'm sure, not the Crossrail trains....

[stuving]

Indeed, but the proposed IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) timetable has already made use of those too....

To what extent is IEP/Crossrail expected to "solve" the overcrowding problem, or is it merely likely to reduce it for a bit in the short term until the increase in passenger numbers swallows up the additional capacity?

In terms of gross numbers, this did come up not long ago. The answer I posted then was from the "London and South East Route Utilisation Strategy July 2011" (revised here):

There are three 2010 base figures: capacity in seat, seats plus "acceptable standing", and actual numbers carried. That last one may be demand, unless that's well above capacity in which case demand is unknown.

There's a pre-RUS^▸ (Route Utilisation Strategy) baseline capacity, i.e. including CP4^▸ (Control Period 4 - the five year period between 2009 and 2014) infrastructure enhancements and further things known and "committed" (Reading, Crossrail) or announced by the government to 2011 (SET^▸ (Super Express Train (now IET)), electrification, etc).

Then there's 2031 predicted demand, based on a huge increase on the relief/Crossrail side (211%) and "only" 55% on the mains and HEX.

This gives, for the morning peak hour arrivals:

Lines	2010	2010	2010	committed	2031	2031
	seats	+standing	actual	capacity	demand	unmet
Relief-Crossrail	2,500	3,100	4,100	17,600	12,800	-
Main	8,000	8,300	9,000	9,200	13,600	4,400
Heathrow Express	2,800	2,800	800	2,800	1,300	-

The table actually says "main line and other fast trains", so I guess it includes those that swap onto the mains after Reading. However, there must still be some some assumption built into the figures about how, for example, Maidenhead commuters split between the Crossrail and fast trains.

Those figures are into Paddington, where the increase is pretty big. For Maidenhead specifically, standing isn't "acceptable"all the way to Paddington on Crossrail. Logically, the number of trains that run from or through MAI^▸ (Maidenhead station) has to be increased to eliminate standing, so the question is whether that logic will actually be applied.

The Western Route Study doesn't include these numbers for capacity added by Crossrail and SET - its starting point is the "committed" case in 2019. I recommend reading its discussion of how to add capacity above that baseline (pp 104-125).

[Adelante_CCT]

IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) produces a 20% gain in capacity when run in 'HST^▸ (High Speed Train) lengths' (I reckon that means 9car electrics?) and therefore slightly more than that when two 5car bi-modes form a service.

Your guess is as good as mine re the EMU^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) replacement of the turbos, as they haven't yet been confirmed...

I thought the (what will be) former Thameslink 319s are replacing the turbos for local Newbury / Oxford services.

[ChrisB]

So, assuming that the 2010 actual figure on Mains of 9000 has already increased in the four years since then, the 2019 committed is already at least at committed capacity? Thus Theresa May's chances of getting more of her constituents onto more fast Main trains is at best likely to only allow them to stand, and at worst for there to be no more space on those that might be stopped - and Twyford get first dibs in the morning, if she achieves stopping the same trains at both stations.

She could have easily worked that out before making that public statement - as Home Secretary as well as for her job as an MP^▸ (Member of Parliament), I'm sure she has read it.

So one can assume that at best, its political posturing to get the document changed, at worst its NIMBYism.

I thought the (what will be) former Thameslink 319s are replacing the turbos for local Newbury / Oxford services.

I'm not sure that has been confirmed in writing - to start with, there doesn't appear to be any other avaiklable stock, but 387s have been talked about to arrive shortly after electrification (by 2019?)

[paul7575]

It should solve overcrowding as they're going to be 9-car trains with a seating capacity of 450 and a design capacity of 1500.  Big increase on what we have currently. (A 3-car 165 has around 270 seats)

I'm getting confused with wording again - ?design capacity? - 450 seated and 1050 standing? 2.3 times the number of standees as seats?  Maidenhead to London users will be overjoyed! 

These are 9 x 23m trains with an average of 50 seats per carriage (hence many need to be 2+2 layout), but three sets of double doors.   I'd be thinking tube train type of standing levels in the door areas, and in the wide inter-car gangways. 

For comparison, the full and standing capacity of the four car London Overground Class 378s is suggested to be about 500, with only about 32 seats per car.  A 3:1 standing to seating ratio...

Paul

[IndustryInsider]

Funnily enough, my very first post on this forum (back in 2008) was a suggested timetable for a Paddington to Westbury service using the 180s and giving a (roughly) hourly fast service from Maidenhead to Paddington.

The Westbury to Paddington service looks like it's going to happen when the IEPs^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) arrive, and I would suggest that is the most likely chance of a non-stop service that Maidenhead has got.  Though probably the best Maidenhead (and Twyford) can hope for, in my opinion, is the twice hourly EMU^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) service promised post-Crossrail, which, with stops at Twyford, Maidenhead, Slough, and Ealing Broadway, would provide a much improved service off-peak - providing they get a clear run!

Here's my 2008 timetable though, to show what could happen:

[Electric train]

And not NIMBY in any real sense, just a very partisan demand, which isn't out of order for a submission to a very preliminary study from a constituency MP^▸ (Member of Parliament).

Absolutely and I would expect nothing else from my MP.   Now all she has to do make it happen, NR^» (Network Rail - home page) after all is a Government Agency

[eightf48544]

One thing that puzzles me slightly is how do all these hoards of extra passengers get to Maidenhead station. Full carparks most buses a fair bit away. Cycle?

It's not the most accessible being being basically off a very large squashed roundabout. For those that don't know the entrance is one way off the North side of the rail bridge Northbound off the A308, which at this point is dula carriage way with a conventional roundabout on the Southside of the line. I'm not really sure how you get Southbound coming out of the station a U turn atGrenfell Way Jn? I come in from th North and depart Northbound so no real problem.   e