IEP - Capacity shortfall or plenty of seats?

[whole diary]

[Tim]

Interesting analysis, but I think we can get too bogged down in the details of the figures.  My concern is that the improved service will drive extra demand and that if and when that happens the complicated financing system will mean that adding an extra coach to cope will not be simple or cost effective.

Maybe I am wrong and once the Western IEPs^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) are finished the production line will be kept busy with the ECML^▸ (East Coast Main Line) and other work for it to remain open for a number of years so that it can return to GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) lengthening a few years after the trains are initially launched.

Its not the initial specification that worries me - that is probably more or less right.  It is the effects of 3 to 7 % cumulative growth over the next 10 years. 

[Rhydgaled]

Rhydgaled has suggested longer Bi-Mode trains as a capacity solution, so the second table is what it looks like if the five daily Bi-mode diagrams that are not booked to couple to anything during the day were extended to 8-car formations (as well as the Electric trains getting an additional vehicle):

I've taken a different approach though, leaving the 9-car 'electric' order as-is and aiming to remove doubled-diagrams altogether by lengthening a larger proportion of the bi-modes and leaving a smaller number of 5-car units for workings where 315 seats is enough. That avoids the wasted duplicate kitchens and cabs, and the problems with platforming a pair of fives at a short platform. The result is slightly fewer diagrams overall, but more diagrammed vehicles (at least if the lengthening is to 9-car).

Also, I'm not altogether encouraged by your tactic of lengthening the 'electrics' to 10-car but leaving the bi-modes (or the vast majority) as 5-car. Assuming the provisional DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) diagrams, while helping with loadings over the whole day it would do nothing to help the three-in-a-row 5-car units from PAD^» (Paddington (London) - next trains) to CDF^» (Cardiff - next trains) (2 extending to Swansea). Tweaking the diagrams to swap the longer 'electrics' from the Bristol routes to Swansea services would certainly help, but then what happens when the Severn Tunnel is shut? Diversionary route not electrified, so bi-modes needed, and 5-car won't do. Of course you could put pax on a 9-car 'electric' to Swindon, then make them change onto a 2x5-car bi-mode from Swindon to Cardiff and have 9-car 'electric' units doing a Swansea-Cardiff shuttle but that's two changes where there would normally be none. Given that the only other ICGW routes being entirely electrified are PAD-BRI^» (Bristol Temple Meads - next trains), there's not much scope for electrics removed from Wales services releasing enough bi-modes to run them as 2x5-car throughout from London to Wales when the Severn Tunnel is shut.

As an aside, has anyone here used the 07:30 Carmarthen service into Swansea? If so, what are the loadings like, would its loss to Swansea commuters (by moving it an hour earlier as proposed in the draft timetables) be painful?

[IndustryInsider]

Yes, I suppose it's swings and roundabouts as there's many a way to increase capacity.

I guess I've went for the extension to 10-cars in my example for several reasons (including the easy maths!), but mostly the fact that since the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) order was confirmed, FGW^▸ (First Great Western) has increased seating on the HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) which now bring them much closer in line with a 9-car IEP.  Extending them to 10-cars would be an easy way of building extra capacity into the trains, and would probably be fairly easy to build into the maintenance contract in a similar vein to the Pendolino extensions.

The same with the 5-car bi-modes in that I took the 'easy' option of working out which units didn't couple during the day and extended them.  Like I say, it was just a quick example of what kind of impact a modest fleet extension could have.  Your point about the Severn Tunnel is relevant, though it is likely it will only be out of use (unplanned disruption excepted) at weekends when there will likely be extra cover available.

We'll see which way the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) and FGW go with this one over the years, but I believe something will have to change from those proposals on the South Wales routes and North Cotswold Line to avoid daily capacity problems.

[broadgage]

I expect significant overcrowding on the new shorter trains, and some overcrowding even on the full length ones.
I base this view not on detailed analysis, but on previous experience of other new shorter trains.

I recall Waterloo to Exeter services being shortened from full length loco hauled trains to 3 car DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit), standing became the norm on services that previously had enough seating.

I remember 8 car slam door EMUs^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) being replaced by a mixture of 4 car and 6 car networkers on the Catford loop line, I used to get a seat on the full length trains but had to stand on the new shorter trains.

I remember HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) and full length loco hauled trains being replaced by 4 car DMUs on cross country services, again standing became the norm on services that previously had ample seating.

Whilst we are reassured that this time it will be different, I have my doubts, based on experience of other "improvements" and consequent increased standing.

Whilst it is true that the new trains can be lengthened, they said that about the 159s on the Exeter route ! and indeed they WERE eventually run in multiple, but only after years of standing.
The new shorter networkers used to replace slam door EMUs had "flexible train length" but for about 20 years this flexibility was only used to shorten trains, never to make them full length.
The new shorter trains used for cross country services were forecast to be adequate due to increased frequency and the ability to run in multiple, does not seem to have worked in practice though.
And of course Pendolinos were designed to be lengthened, and some eventually were lengthened, but this was found to be hugely costly and complicated and not the simple matter that it sounds.

I fear a repeat. There is still time to tweak the design of the new trains by removing tables and reducing leg room in order to provide "thousands of extra seats"

[IndustryInsider]

I fear a repeat.

I too feared a repeat - of your usual statements that is.  Shame you didn't at least try to analyse and debate the detail in the thread I started, rather than just do a cut-and-paste job on your previous posts.

You're right about the internal design though, Rail Gazette reports today that:

UK^▸ (United Kingdom): The first of 122 trainsets for inter-city services on the East Coast and Great Western main lines was unveiled at Hitachi^s factory at Kasado in southwest Japan on November 13.

The first train is yet to be fitted out internally, although one set of sample first class seats have been installed for illustrative purposes. This has been shipped from the UK where full-size mock-up of the passenger saloon has been on display. Decisions about the final interior specification rest with the franchised operators of the fleet, but guests at Kasado were able to inspect a driving car which included completed kitchen galley and accessible toilet modules.

http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/passenger/single-view/view/first-class-800-trainset-unveiled.html

Of course, that could mean no tables and reduced legroom, or it could mean slightly less first class and more standard class, or it could even mean a nice big buffet counter.    Either way, I was correct in what I said a month or so ago about a 'finished train' probably not being fitted out internally yet, and agree with you that the fact FGW^▸ (First Great Western) are going to be operating the trains for the first few years means they will have to carefully tweak the internal layout if they so wish with the mindset of them having to deal with any consequences, rather than running away and letting a new operator deal with any flak.

[Rhydgaled]

the fact FGW^▸ (First Great Western) are going to be operating the trains for the first few years means they will have to carefully tweak the internal layout if they so wish with the mindset of them having to deal with any consequences, rather than running away and letting a new operator deal with any flak.

How long ought I give Mark Webber, Customer Relations Senior Officer at First Great Western, to respond to my most recent e-mail (sent 30/10/2014) before I try again?

The start of my message goes as follows:
To: Mark.Webber@firstgroup.com

Dear Mr Webber,
I am pleased that First Great Western is expected to continue until at least March 2019, as this permits your experienced team to manage the electrification project. It also gives you the opportunity to tailor the new Intercity Express Programme trains in order to maximise the benefits for passengers. It is however very disappointing that you do not appear to have made any attempt to address the shortcomings, one very serious, present in the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about)'s draft plans for the Great Western IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) fleet.

And continues, much more to this e-mail available on request. Or maybe Mr Webber isn't the person I should have written to?

[ChrisB]

If you simply send it to the Customer Relations address, it will get logged & thus you should get a response.

If you send it to a named individual, it doesn't get logged & if Mark can't answer it, he'll simply try & send it to someone else he thinks might be able to assist you.

Which would I choose?.....I think I know.

[tomL]

Gloucester/Cheltenham:
The route sees a healthy 25% increase in London seats, due to the direct train service frequency increasing to hourly from one every two hours, though this is partly tempered by the removal of the shuttle service to Swindon which also carries plenty of London passengers.

Always seems to be a large flow of passengers connecting at Swindon for Cheltenham Spa. Always a rush for the 13:38 where passengers are connecting from (I assume) is the arrival on platform 4 from Paddington just before. 

[IndustryInsider]

Gloucester/Cheltenham:
The route sees a healthy 25% increase in London seats, due to the direct train service frequency increasing to hourly from one every two hours, though this is partly tempered by the removal of the shuttle service to Swindon which also carries plenty of London passengers.

Always seems to be a large flow of passengers connecting at Swindon for Cheltenham Spa. Always a rush for the 13:38 where passengers are connecting from (I assume) is the arrival on platform 4 from Paddington just before. 

Yes, I believe there is good demand for an hourly through service - as there is on the North Cotswold Line, too.  So for me the doubling of direct trains from nine per weekday to eighteen per weekday is most welcome.

A stark reminder of how far we've come in terms of direct trains to London from Cheltenham and Gloucester over the years is that in 1990 there were four, and in 1983 (during the golden age of HST^▸ (High Speed Train) travel according to some) there were just two!

[DidcotPunter]

Correct II - and when they were loco-hauled they were slow too. I lived near Dursley in the late 70s and it was much quicker to drive to Bristol Parkway and take a new shiny HST^▸ (High Speed Train) to Paddington than travel the shorter distance to Stroud and get one of the two through trains. Also the contrast between changing from a HST at Swindon onto a first generation DMU^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) couldn't have been greater.

Anyway, to get back on topic. Yesterday Hitachi rolled out the first of the pre-production class 800 IEPs^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) at their Kasado Works in Japan.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30042801

Of the initial three units, the first two are five car and the third apparently a nine-car. This one is the bi-mode version and is due to be shipped to Southampton in March next year. Whatever one's views of the IEP, I do think that this looks rather smart, though for how long it will remain white in UK^▸ (United Kingdom) conditions remains to be seen.

[ChrisB]

or even before the TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company) put their logos all over it...

[Red Squirrel]

Correct II - and when they were loco-hauled they were slow too. I lived near Dursley in the late 70s and it was much quicker to drive to Bristol Parkway and take a new shiny HST^▸ (High Speed Train) to Paddington than travel the shorter distance to Stroud and get one of the two through trains. Also the contrast between changing from a HST at Swindon onto a first generation DMU^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) couldn't have been greater.

Anyway, to get back on topic. Yesterday Hitachi rolled out the first of the pre-production class 800 IEPs^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) at their Kasado Works in Japan.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30042801

Of the initial three units, the first two are five car and the third apparently a nine-car. This one is the bi-mode version and is due to be shipped to Southampton in March next year. Whatever one's views of the IEP, I do think that this looks rather smart, though for how long it will remain white in UK^▸ (United Kingdom) conditions remains to be seen.

At around 1'20 in the South Today piece, I found myself thinking 'Blimey, it's got inside cylinders!'

[stuving]

And here's a fine example of a company handout reprocessed by getReading.

While it shouldn't affect the links that get posted here, Trinity Mirror have announced they will stop printing many of their local titles, including the Reading Post and Wokingham Times, and continue as online only. And they'd only just restarted my mysterious free delivered copy two weeks ago!

[JayMac]

Paul Clifton referred to the unveiled train as 'electric'.

What was unveiled was a Class 800, which is the electro-diesel version of the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.).

I also noted that the carriage side display showed '0955 Bridgwater'. I wonder why that particular location was chosen to showcase the displays?

[trainer]

I also noted that the carriage side display showed '0955 Bridgwater'. I wonder why that particular location was chosen to showcase the displays?

Perhaps to show that the Japanese can spell 'Bridgwater' even if many Brits can't.