IEP - Capacity shortfall or plenty of seats?

[whole diary]

[IndustryInsider]

Having had a few free hours to play with over the last few weeks, I wanted to satisfy my own curiosity about the likely seating totals when the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) trains are introduced in the coming years.  I^d be interested to hear people^s thoughts.

Taking on board comments from other forum members predicting severe overcrowding, ^Rhydgaled^ and ^Broadgage^ to name but two, and my own concerns which are mostly on the South Wales services and the Cotswold Line, I^ve dissected the draft IEP diagrams ^Rhydaled^ kindly re-uploaded and compared them with the current timetable and stock.

Firstly I should point out that there are some massive caveats that have to be added to the figures, but in each case I^ve used the latest actual and proposed timetables, and the latest seating layouts.  For example, the HST^▸ (High Speed Train) seating is based on an average of what the situation will be after the current modifications have been completed (490 standard class seats and 70 first class).  The IEP seating is based on the draft seating plans released by the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) in 2012.

So, the massive caveats I referred to:

• The provisional timetables are just that.  There will have to be some changes in order for them to work anyway, and I^m sure the final versions will be significantly different on many of the routes.
• The provisional seating layouts for the IEP are just that.  It may well be that, in keeping with current ratios of First and Standard Class, there will be more Standard Class seats in the final layout of the trains.
• The ^whole of the day^ picture can be misleading as the number of passengers travelling varies quite considerably throughout the day.  This can work in both ways ^ for example having the 06:23 Carmarthen to Paddington train running as a 5-car bi-mode will doubtless cause issues if it stayed like that given the time of day and the calling patterns, but at the same time large decreases in seating provision on the Cotswold Line are made to look worse as currently the last two trains of the day are worked by HST^s with massive over-provision of seating.
• The figures I^ve done only apply on journeys towards London on weekdays.  The weekend details, and indeed weekdays from London might be significantly different, and of course it's not just about seating when it arrives at London as there are significant commuter flows to and from other stations, so if the current full 8-car HST on a chose commute, say to Bristol Temple Meads, is replaced by a 5-car Bi-Mode then problems will arise.
• Calling patterns and frequency can alter the number of passengers on board trains quite considerably, say for example, if there was a 5tph service from Swindon to London it^s not a good use of capacity if there^s a 5-car train followed in quick succession by 10-car trains and then a large gap to the next service which is another 5-car.  I^ve attempted to point out such potential benefits and negatives where possible.
• I would love to have included stations such as Oxford, Didcot and Reading in the statistics, but sadly the number of trains and their type and formation is pure speculation at the moment.

What is the approximate situation ^ number of trains?
The chart below shows the current and provisional number of services operating from key stations on the HST and IEP network.   Some stations, such as Swansea, Cardiff, Bath, Worcester and Swindon see little improvement in the number of trains operating, and some stations see an increase such as Gloucester, Cheltenham, Bristol Parkway and Hereford.  The increase from Bristol Parkway is partly tempered with two trains of the three per hour departing within two minutes of each other.  Bristol Temple Meads sees a massive increase from 32 to 59 trains per day.  All routes and stations see improvements in journey times, some of them quite impressive (Bristol Parkway to London in 72 minutes rather than 91, Swansea in 2h 43m compared with 3h 05m), others more modest ^ Bath is only 1-7 minutes quicker for example.

Aside from the North and South Cotswold routes, claims that most trains will be in the hands of 5-car sets prove to be largely false based on these proposed diagrams, with only 13 out of 59 trains from Bristol Temple Meads and 4 out of 31 trains from Bath/Chippenham.  Those trains feature more significantly on the Swansea route though with 8 out of 20 from Swansea, 11 out of 31 from Cardiff, and 16 out of 44 from Bristol Parkway.

A large increase in through from Cheltenham/Gloucester and Hereford is most welcome, but Moreton-In-Marsh sees less services than are currently available.  Swindon remains with the same number of trains, but there has been talk of extra EMU^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) Swindon to Paddington services.

Here is the spreadsheet showing the number of trains:





What is the approximate situation ^ number of seats?
This is where it gets interesting!  Firstly, a general observation:  The first class/standard class ratio appears to swing a little bit back in the favour of more first class seats if the provisional seating plans are to be believed.  As it stands, all routes (except the Cotswold Line) feature a healthy increase in first class seating over what is currently provided.  The provisional seating layouts were produced before the current first class reduction programme was planned, so I wonder whether a few of the first class seats will be replaced by standard class in the final layouts?
I^ll do a summary for each of the stations I^ve chosen:

Swansea & Cardiff:
Both stations would see a reduction in the number of seats provided throughout the day ^ a very small reduction for Cardiff, but over 10% in the case of Swansea.  This isn^t quite as bad as it sounds as 12 trains a day will run fast from Newport to Reading, so they will not be picking up further passengers at Bristol Parkway and Swindon, however I remain concerned that there will not be enough accommodation as the reduced journey times to London are bound to attract new passengers, and certain key trains (07:19 and 08:02 from Swansea for example) have been rostered as a single 5-car Bi-Mode set.

Bristol Temple Meads:
The introduction of a 4tph service, two of which are routed via Bristol Parkway to give a journey time of just 84 minutes, means a huge increase in the number of daily seats to London, which isn^t far off doubling from just under 18000 to just under 33000 ^ an increase of 84%!

Bristol Parkway:
Those extra Bristol Temple Meads to London trains also mean healthy increases at Parkway, despite losing some of its current trains on the South Wales route.  Seating is up by a healthy 28.6% over the day, and with some of the trains coming from Bristol Temple Meads rather than Swansea it is likely there will be more seats available on those trains.

Chippenham/Bath Spa:
A modest increase of 12% throughout the day with the likelihood of a further boost of seat availability given that many Bristol Temple Meads to London passengers will be on the trains routed via Parkway instead.  Will that be enough to cater for increased demand?

Gloucester/Cheltenham:
The route sees a healthy 25% increase in London seats, due to the direct train service frequency increasing to hourly from one every two hours, though this is partly tempered by the removal of the shuttle service to Swindon which also carries plenty of London passengers.

Swindon:
Swindon sees almost a 10% reduction in seating as a result of the proposed changes.  There^s a possibility of an EMU operated shuttle service operating between Swindon and Paddington to address any crowding as a result of this reduction.

Cotswold Line:
My main worry is capacity on this route and the figures reveal a substantial reduction in seats at all stations, with Worcester losing 10% of what^s currently provided and Moreton-In-Marsh a whopping 20% reduction ^ though perhaps some other extra trains will be provided by Turbos?  Even Hereford, which sees an increase in trains from 6 to 9 per day, sees a decrease in the total number of seats available.  Partly offset by the removal of Slough calls, but I can see demand outstripping supply quite easily.

Here is the spreadsheet showing the number of seats:





Conclusion:
The situation is probably slightly worse that I thought especially with regard to the South Wales routes and the Cotswold Line.  Swindon also suffers, and whilst on all of these routes there are reasons why the trains won^t be as heavily loaded as there are now, I can see the extra custom that the reduced journey times and increased frequencies will have soon presenting problems if extra capacity isn^t provided.

On the brighter side, the Bristol stations and Bath Spa/Chippenham will probably have enough seating (especially from Temple Meads) to cater for quite a large amount of growth.

[ChrisB]

Good work, but certainly some assumptions/omission on the North Cotswolds....

I am informed that the current idea is to run at least two 10car bi-modes along the Cotswolds in the AM peak. Yes, I guess that could easily be superceded by running a 5car to Oxford & joining another one there, which might happen in the PM peak in the reverse.. It's almost guaranteed to be a delay inducer too, so I,m hopeful they'll be 10car all the way. There is certainly talk of extending Cotswold stations to 6car, being two/three of each 5car unit on the platform, for SDO^▸ (Selective Door Opening) to work.

You've also forgotten the AM stopper, which will still be a turbo unit.

[IndustryInsider]

Yes, there's assumption and omissions across the whole data sadly, given the speculative nature of the details we have so far. 

The data does include two 10-car Bi-modes along the Cotswold Line in the AM peak (the two that were listed - the 05:12 Worcester Foregate Street to Paddington, and 05:26 Hereford to Paddington), and there will indeed be the stopper to Oxford as per now, but because I've only included through trains to London, so that doesn't figure in either the 'now' or 'then' columns.  I suspect the odd extra Turbo shuttle to Oxford (to connect with a London EMU^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit)) could also be provided from at least Moreton-In-Marsh at peak times.  That would certainly help massage the Cotswold Line figures a little.

[tomL]

There^s a possibility of an EMU^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) operated shuttle service operating between Swindon and Paddington to address any crowding as a result of this reduction.

Swindon to Paddington via Oxford (up to Oxford and back avoiding Didcot Parkway) please. 

[didcotdean]

More likely to be London-Reading-Didcot with a peak time extension to Swindon, but who knows.

[mjones]

Please don't cut out too many stops at Didcot or Swindon- everyone seems determined to make our connections to the West worse!

[Timmer]

I seriously question whether Bristol needs 4 trains an hour to London. Not even Birmingham and Manchester have more than 3 an hour. Could find the two limited stops trains every hour between Bristol and London end up carrying a lot of fresh air whilst other stopping services end up crowded.

[paul7575]

Depending on the exact timings, isn't the reality going to be a 2 tph main service via Parkway, and a secondary slower service via Bath, that provides the Bath to Paddington service, (and the Bristol to Bath fast service).   What it won't be is a clock face 'same every 15 minute' service, I'd expect half the services to be caught up by Paddington, and the faster ones to be far more attractive to through passengers.

I guess there's a slight analogy with the situation at Southampton, where every hour there are theoretically four trains to London, but no one would intentionally take the SWT^▸ (South West Trains) service that gets overtaken on route, and very few would take the SN service to Victoria, an hour slower even though its much cheaper...

Paul

[IndustryInsider]

Yes, I would certainly expect that to be the case, at least partially, which is where a 12% seating increase from Bath and Chippenham on paper would actually be much more given that the trains would be a lot less full from Bristol Temple Meads.

[stuving]

Has anyone done the comparison with the 2019 ITSS - at least as quoted in the Western Route Study? The information from that source (as well as demand predictions for 2023 and 2043) is scattered throughout the document, but the one place that looks most relevant is table 3.10 (p.54).

Figure 3.10 : Main Line arrivals into London Paddington, 2019 baseline capacity and estimated 2023  and 2043 demand over the three hour peak (07:00 ^ 09:59)

Service group into London Paddington	2019 Indicative Train Service Specification	Rolling stock assumption	Total capacity assumed (standard class seats)	2023 expected demand	2043 expected demand
Via Oxford	6 suburban stopping services 6 fast from Oxford 3 from Hereford	8-car EMU▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) 12-car EMU 10-car bi-mode SET▸ (Super Express Train (now IET))	2,880 2,160 1,890	2,000 1,300 1,600	3,000 2,000 2,400
From Newbury (stopping at stations on route to Reading)	3	8-car EMU	1,440	1,300	1,900
Cheltenham via Kemble	3	10-car bi-mode SET	1,890	1,700	2,600
Bristol Temple Meads via Bath Spa	6	9-car electric SET	3,762	4,000	5,300
Bristol Temple Meads via Bristol Parkway	5	10-car bi-mode SET	3,150	2,500	5,000
From Swansea	6	9-car electric SET	3,762	3,900	5,700
West of England (Exeter/Plymouth /Penzance)	6	8-car HST▸ (High Speed Train)	2,970	2,600	4,000

The projected demand is allocated according to 2019 ITSS + additional high peak stops assumed at Reading  to manage demand across the services for modelling purposes (as per Choice A3 in Chapter 5).
Please see Appendix B for the rolling stock capacity assumptions.
(Sorry if this doesn't format right on your screen - there's always the original.)

While that is for the peak, on these long-distance services there are few (in most cases no) extra peak-only trains - so this is just three times the all-day tph assumed for 2019. It does correspond pretty closely to the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) working assumption, down to showing only five BRI^» (Bristol Temple Meads - next trains) via BPW^» (Bristol Parkway - next trains) as there is no 5:02. Note that, on these assumptions, in 2023 it is BRI via BTH^» (Bath Spa - next trains) and SWA^» (Swansea - next trains) that overload first.

[stuving]

One important divergence from the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) plan is that all the peak bi-modes are 10-car - not just two out of three (in some cases). That leads right back to the crunch question: are there enough bi-modes to run them at 10-car length on every service that warrants it, as advertised.

[Rhydgaled]

Nice to see somebody else having a good crack at analysing the information available.

The ^whole of the day^ picture can be misleading as the number of passengers travelling varies quite considerably throughout the day.  This can work in both ways ^ for example having the 06:23 Carmarthen to Paddington train running as a 5-car bi-mode will doubtless cause issues if it stayed like that given the time of day and the calling patterns,

The Carmarthen-PAD^» (Paddington (London) - next trains) is one, but what about other non-London peak services away from the wires? For example Weston-Super-Mare to Bristol (can't remember how many were double formations, but there were alot of fives through the day), Swindon into Gloucester/Cheltenham, Cotswolds into Oxford and Hereford etc. I've not analysed all of those in detail, but peak time is the same everywhere and the strengthening units (or most of them) will all be in London.

Swansea & Cardiff:
Both stations would see a reduction in the number of seats provided throughout the day ^ a very small reduction for Cardiff, but over 10% in the case of Swansea.  This isn^t quite as bad as it sounds as 12 trains a day will run fast from Newport to Reading, so they will not be picking up further passengers at Bristol Parkway and Swindon, however I remain concerned that there will not be enough accommodation as the reduced journey times to London are bound to attract new passengers, and certain key trains (07:19 and 08:02 from Swansea for example) have been rostered as a single 5-car Bi-Mode set.

I'm also worried about the capacity between Cardiff and Swansea. They are big places and Bridgend, Port Talbot and Neath are not to be sniffed at either.

[IndustryInsider]

There^s probably six fairly easy ways that the provisional diagrams and stock utilisation can be improved upon:

• Different stock ^ use of HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) on some services (retaining a few more sets than will be retained for the Cornish routes), or the use of 110mph EMUs^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) out as far as at least Swindon.
• Tweaking the provisional diagrams ^ More use of the 9-car Electric sets on the Swansea diagrams would help redress the balance.
• Extra IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) trains - An increase in the number of train sets would obviously help.  Either more 9-car sets to enable more 5-car sets to run as 10-car formations, or just more 5-car sets, or new longer Bi-mode sets (8 or 9-car).
• Alteration to the interiors of the train - Either the reduction in the number of first class seats to provide a similar first/standard ratio to now, or turning the trains into high-density sets by removal of the tables and squeezing in a handful more seats per carriage.
• Lengthening the existing 9-car trains ^ Given that all routes see 10-car Bi-mode formations at least once per day, you could lengthen all of the 9-car Electric sets to 10-cars giving an extra 88 seats and two more toilets.  Or approximately 60-70 extra seats and the buffet module we^ve been discussing!
• Lengthen the existing 5-car trains ^ Not all of the 5-car trains in the provisional diagrams couple to another set during the day, so it might be possible to lengthen some of the 5-car trains to either 8 or 9 car trains to boost capacity by 250-330 seats per train.

Taking options 5 and 6 above, I^ve re-jigged the seats per day spreadsheet so that it reflects what would happen to those provisional diagrams should those options be taken up:



If all 9-car Electric sets are extended to 10-cars - something I can definitely see happening:

That's enough to turn Cardiff's slight deficit into a 9% increase and virtually eliminate Swansea and Swindon's deficit.  The Bristol stations benefit even more, but more importantly, Chippenham and Bath Spa see a 12% increase more than doubled to 25%.

Rhydgaled has suggested longer Bi-Mode trains as a capacity solution, so the second table is what it looks like if the five daily Bi-mode diagrams that are not booked to couple to anything during the day were extended to 8-car formations (as well as the Electric trains getting an additional vehicle):

I've only done this as an example, as the Bi-mode diagrams would need to be altered so that trains of different lengths were stabled in the correct locations overnight for the next morning's diagram, but it has a marked difference on both the North and South Cotswold routes, as well as giving slight improvements to the other routes.

All stations on the North Cotswold Line (except Great Malvern) see their deficits turn into increases, -10% to +16 in the case of Worcester Foregate Street for example.  The busier morning trains 06:26 and 09:26 services from Hereford to London would have plenty more seats, especially useful for the 06:26 which would massively struggle as a 5-car set as planned.

The South Cotswold Line sees healthy increases at Cheltenham and Gloucester from 25% up to 40% and again two key busy morning trains would get plenty of extra seats (07:52 and 08:48 from Cheltenham).

All other stations on the route also see a slight boost as well with it being enough to put both Swansea and Swindon into positive territory!

Just suggestions, but food for thought!

[ChrisB]

But off-peak, the HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) drag around many coach-equivalent s of thin air! Hence the 5car bi-modes - to reduce the amount of thin air....

[IndustryInsider]

Yes, I know, hence a targeted lengthening of some of the fleet - the example below is just 5 units (diagrams 1402/3/11/22/26) out of the 32 units required to cover the daily service in the provisional 5-car diagrams (although 1431 diagram is effectively a hot spare at London throughout much of the day).

If only a 5-car unit ends up working, for example, the 06:26 & 07:26 HFD^» (Hereford - next trains)-PAD^» (Paddington (London) - next trains) and the 07:52 & 08:52 CMN-PAD and the 07:19 and 08:02 SWA^» (Swansea - next trains)-PAD (the former having come from Carmarthen), as they have been allocated in those provisional diagrams then they will be literally swamped.  Extension of some of the fleet would be one way of getting around that.