A question about when HSTs were introduced

[whole diary]

[Kernow Otter]

Taking this thread out on a subtle tangent, when do we think the last HST^▸ (High Speed Train) will be withdrawn ?

[ChrisB]

Because it is serious tourist real estate....

[grahame]

Taking this thread out on a subtle tangent, when do we think the last HST^▸ (High Speed Train) will be withdrawn ?

That would be a very interesting poll!

Noting the transfer of some units to Aberdeen -> Inverness for a new life there.   The oldest stock in use on the main network is now around 75 years old ... if the HSTs last that long are you looking at a final withdrawal in around 2050.  But would we start seeing "Trigger's Brush" by then, with the only original parts remaining being the design?

[Western Pathfinder]

Just as a matter of interest what is the 75 year old stock that is still on the network ?.

[John R]

Isle of Wight ex tube (38) stock.

[Western Pathfinder]

Isle of Wight ex tube (38) stock.

Thankyou for that.

[broadgage]

Taking this thread out on a subtle tangent, when do we think the last HST^▸ (High Speed Train) will be withdrawn ?

I expect that a few will still be running in at least 20 years time on the national network, and for longer still on heritage railways.
As electrification slowly spreads there is a reluctance to build any more diesel trains, so HSTs may carry on for decades yet on remaining non electrified routes.

[ChrisB]

According to a thread on uk.groups, the HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) are off to Scotland when released by FGW^▸ (First Great Western)

[trainer]

Todays Railways UK^▸ (United Kingdom) (December 2014 Issue 156) has an article on the NR^» (Network Rail - home page) Western Route Study headed Last HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) To Go By 2043.  It's based on rolling stock requirements up to that date.

[grahame]

Todays Railways UK^▸ (United Kingdom) (December 2014 Issue 156) has an article on the NR^» (Network Rail - home page) Western Route Study headed Last HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) To Go By 2043.  It's based on rolling stock requirements up to that date.

One of the interesting things that the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) does (and thank goodness) is to project ahead on rolling stock requirements, as well as on infrastructure requirements via the Route Study.  I would suspect that the article, and the route study, may draw on that work.

But ... who can predict what growth rates we'll see in the next 30 years?  The stock requirements were, I recall, based on growth considerably below the typical rate for recent years. Passenger / user group experts and transport academics broadly agree that the recent growth rate won't be sustained over the very long term, but they suggested that it would be somewhat below the current rate rather that considerably below it.  And whilst the two views might not vary things much over 2 or 3 years, they sure as heck do over 30.

I can understand government erring on the side of caution. To commit to heavy investment, at a time of fiscal prudence, with the risk of providing a solution to a stock problem that doesn't exist and having lots of spare trains in decades to come is something they want to avoid, after all.  Yet perhaps they have been too cautious.

Some examples?

Growth at 7.5% - the sort of thing we've seen in a number of recent years.
100 passengers this year.  143 passengers in 5 years.  206 passengers in 10 years. 425 passengers in 20 years

Growth at 4.5% - the lower end of passenger and academic expectations
100 passengers this year.  124 passengers in 5 years.  155 passengers in 10 years. 241 passengers in 20 years

Growth at 2.5% - the sort of thing the DfT is thinking may happen (as I recall)
100 passengers this year.  113 passengers in 5 years.  128 passengers in 10 years. 164 passengers in 20 years

So in 2034, that means that the independent experts are saying there will be a 46% shortfall (at least - that's their low figure) in capacity.  So what a relief if the HSTs can carry on for a few more decades 

[stuving]

Todays Railways UK^▸ (United Kingdom) (December 2014 Issue 156) has an article on the NR^» (Network Rail - home page) Western Route Study headed Last HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) To Go By 2043.  It's based on rolling stock requirements up to that date.

Well, that is an assumption of the study. But if you were asked to do a study of the railways in 2043, what would you assume about HSTs? We all know they that, even re-engined, they will be truly life-expired by then.

For comparison here are some figures from 1981 (costs for 1978) for HST and other new stock: purchase price  and "standard working life". Of course that's just an accounting figure: the time over which to depreciate the initial value or amortise the cost. You would expect then to last longer, after which they are "free" (in accounting terms). What isn't shown here is the maintenance cost, and how that varies with age. When new, HSTs had much higher maintenance costs than predicted, and while it may have gone down a bit will go up again with time.

(The figures come from "Review of Main Line Electrification" (BRB^‡(resolve) 1981), from Railway Archive. Interesting in its own right, for contemporary views on electrification and future demand, it also contains a set of cost and other assumptions in convenient simplified form.)

[paul7575]

According to a thread on uk.groups, the HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) are off to Scotland when released by FGW^▸ (First Great Western)

We were discussing that decision, (i.e. HSTs to Scotland) a month ago in the thread about the Scotrail franchise?  Surely the FGW HSTs are the only ones that meet the timescales announced by Transport Scotland.

http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=14704.msg162845#msg162845

[JayMac]

According to a thread on uk.groups, the HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) are off to Scotland when released by FGW^▸ (First Great Western)

Not just internet rumour. Part of the franchise agreement for Abellio ScotRail, and they've already signed preliminary lease agreements with the ROSCOs^» (Rolling Stock Owning Company - about).

[ChrisB]

Taking them from which date?

[JayMac]

Taking them from which date?

Google is your friend. All I'll say is they won't be taking them until FGW^▸ (First Great Western) have finished with them.