Daytime Traffic on the TransWilts

[whole diary]

[Andrew1939 from West Oxon]

"If in doubt about the ability to get home late, these people will drive to Chippenham - or drive every day - and these potential passengers will be lost from not only the occasional journey on the 20:12, but also from lots of other journeys on other services."
Graham is very right on this statement. 26 years ago I became a daily Cotswold Line commuter from HND to OXF^» (Oxford - next trains). I only took up the train when additional services were introduced allowing me to finish work around mid-day, or leave work an hour so earlier than normal or leave work an hour or so later than normal. I did not use those extra trains very often but they made daily commuting feasible. Too often transport providers look at off-peak services and slash them when the numbers using them are low and uneconomic to operate profitably. However this then means that peak hour services that are profitable become unprofitable as regulars desert. Its that old vicious circle of consequences. What we on the Cotswold Line have seen in recent years that the TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company) has been persuaded to operate more frequent services, traffic has risen overall. I was amazed yesterday to count 60 people boarding the 08.39 HND departure (Cathedrals Express) after nearly 200 people had boarded earlier trains at HND. I thought that it was the tremendous road chaos in Oxford was causing more people to more from car to train but my daughter who was standing on the train said that only a couple of people alighted at Oxford from her carriage, so it must be traffic to Reading and Paddinton that is increasing.

[grahame]

Potential operations issues:
* Freight path needs to be modified - here's a Westbury pass.
0921      Didcot T.C.   DR   FRGT^▸ (FReiGhT)   ZZ   Warminster Mod (Army) Sdgs   0923   (Q)
"As Required" - how often does that run???

Bumping this topic / logging this train.  A further week has passed (I can log week by week) and it's a further week of the train not running even once.

Why should a substantial passenger flow be turned away / inconvenienced because of a freight train that might run, occasionally, for the MOD?  Would it make any difference to the safety and security of the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) if the MOD train ran - if required - 13 minutes later from Swindon / at 08:49, taking over the path of the TransWilts passenger train?

[John R]

This train has the head code 6C07, and googling that and Warminster found a proposed rights table from 2009 which shows the train as a "new flow" (or should that be a trickle).

Of interest, it has a reference to "flexing rights +-30 mins".  Does that mean NR^» (Network Rail - home page) can flex its timing, or is that the prerogative of the operator of the service?

[grahame]

Wednesday, 23rd April,

09:15 at Melksham.  23 on from Chippenham. 3 off and 7 on. 30 users on the Chippenham to Trowbridge section

09:38 arrival from Andover / 09:42 departure to Stratford on Avon. Approx 200 on from Trowbridge, 0 off and 58 on. About 258 users on the Trowbridge to Chippenham section.  There were some 125 to 130 people on the platform, so that's around 70 there just to see the train off

21:14 arrival from Stratford on Avon / 21:22 departure to Andover.  Approx 258 on train from Chippenham to Melksham - 58 off, approx 200 stayed on, no extras joined. So 258 users Chippenham to Trowbridge

Latter two services steam hauled by Braunton.  Arranged and tickets sales by Steam Dreams.  Not sure if they should be included in our stats ... but then the 2 original franchise services ARE included ...

[John R]

This train has the head code 6C07, and googling that and Warminster found a proposed rights table from 2009 which shows the train as a "new flow" (or should that be a trickle).

Of interest, it has a reference to "flexing rights +-30 mins".  Does that mean NR^» (Network Rail - home page) can flex its timing, or is that the prerogative of the operator of the service?

This rather unusual light engine move would have conflicted with an earlier departure for the 0849. Why would it be routed from Trowbridge to Bath Spa via Thingley? Lack of route knowledge is the only thing I can think of.

http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/R02222/2014/04/28/advanced

[bobm]

Possibly to turn the locomotive?

[grahame]

Aren't clearances at Avoncliff and Dundas tighter than anywhere else along a direct route?

Any reason why the light loco couldn't have run after an 08:36 from Swindon rather than before the 08:49?  Just a swapping of paths, I suspect, with it running as it did because it could use the path reserved for (but again not used by) the train to the army sidings at Warminster.

[grahame]

Wednesday, 30th April, 12:02 Melksham to Swindon
8 on into Melksham.  1 off, 7 on = 15 using Trowbridge -> Chippenham stretch

Friday, 2nd May, 20:12 Swindon to Westbury
12 on from Swindon.  2 off, 2 on at Chippenham. 3 off, 2 on at Melksham
= 14 using Chippenham to Trowbridge stretch

Neither what I would have expected to be busy trains. For future readers, NB this Friday was the day before a Bank Holiday.

[grahame]

Thursday, 15th May 2014.

From Westbury at
07:04  32 +14 -0 = 46/14 
07:32  44 +9 -3 = 53/12
09:48  5 +5 -1 = 10/6
11:47  5 +2 -1 = 7/3
14:14  16 +2 -2 = 18/4
16:15  25 +2 -5 = 27/7
18:32  13 +0 -2 = 13/2
19:32  17 +0 -2 = 17/2

From Swindon at
06:12  11 +3 -1 = 14/4
08:49  11 +3 -2 = 14/5 Official Connection from London missed
10:47  13 +4 -1 = 17/5 Official Connection from London missed
12:47  6 +1 -1 = 7/2
15:14  32 +2 -10 = 34/12
17:36  57 +1 -15 = 58/16
18:50  9 +1 -7 = 10/8 Train delayed. Passengers sent via alternative
20:12  7 +0 -1 = 7/1

Notes added where the numbers may have been effected unusually by line incidents

Numbers are passengers into Melksham, number on, number off, total journeys on Chippenham-Trowbridge section and total journeys starting / ending at Melksham.

We have data for Westbury - Trowbridge and Chippenham - Swindon too. Thanks to FGW^▸ (First Great Western) for permission to ride, count, and make sure that customers were aware of the new timetable from Monday.  The data gathered and comments received are invaluable!

[John R]

So using the northbound trains, that's a daily total of 157 pax south and 185 north of Melksham. That's an average of 23 per train into Chippenham.

And the Melksham count of around equates to around 26000 entries and exits, just on Mon to Fri services.   

[grahame]

I stopped by Melksham Station a few minutes ago to see what timetable posters we have up ... and (joy!) a train happened to call while I was there.  So - for the stats:
12:47  6 +2 -1 = 8/2
Again interesting to learn journeys - gentleman arriving had come from Liverpool this morning; phoning for a taxi for the final leg home across town.

[grahame]

... and today ... a trip to London (more about that anon!)

07:20 Melksham to Swindon. 51 on into Melksham, 1 off and 10 more on ... 61/11
Of the 10 joining at Melksham, 4 had arrived at the station on the bus, 2 on foot, 2 had driven, 1 had cycled and 1 had been dropped off.

17:36 Swindon to Melksham. 57 on the train from Swindon.  10 off and 29 on at Chippenham (making 76). 13 off and 4 on at Melksham.  80/17
5 left the station on the bus; most of the rest were walking.

[John R]

That means we have, I believe, the first recorded case since the new service of a service that was "standing room only". (Yes, other services may have had people standing, but they could have found seats.)

And the 61 on the 0720 is around 50% higher than the number seen back in February, which is very encouraging for the earlier of the two commuter services.

[grahame]

Thursday, 15th May 2014.

From Swindon at
18:50  9 +1 -7 = 10/8 Train delayed. Passengers sent via alternative

Tonight ... (Wednesday 21st May)
18:50  24 +3 -5 = 27/8

Extra reading which I will use in place of 10/8 from last Thursday to make a complete midweek day's figures for this month.

[grahame]

... so that makes daily figures for a complete day
Northbound from Westbury: 191/50
Southbound from Swindon: 178/53
Overall - 369/103  or 23.0625/6.4375 per journey

Taking a Saturday figure of 420/215 (see http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=13855.0)
And a Sunday guess of winter 150/50 and summer 200/75
Some estimates ...

252 "regular" weekday in year ->  totals 92,988/25,956
52 Saturdays -> 21,840/11,180
32 Winter Sundays -> 4,800/1,600
20 Summer Sundays -> 4,000/1,500
6 Bank Holidays -> 900/300 (using Winter Sunday figure as I want to come up with a cautious total)
Christmas Day -> 0/0
Boxing Day -> 0/0

Grand total (52 weeks / 364 days) -> 124,528/40,536 ... and I would be surprised to be more than 15% out