Weather disruption caused in 2014, and how to prevent it happening again - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[IndustryInsider]

Hmmm, let's hope that suggestion is slightly more accurate than the nonsense sprouted in the Daily Express (and others) last Autumn saying we were all set for the coldest and snowiest winter in modern times!

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/442873/Coldest-winter-in-modern-times-on-way-with-snow-forecast-for-Britain-starting-next-week

Here's this years offering from the Daily Express:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/604619/Long-range-weather-forecast-Britain-cold-winter-2015-arctic-snow-freeze

Someone really should have a word with them!   

Here's this years carbon copy winter-of-doom forecast from James Madden and Nathan Rao:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/714262/UK-snow-long-range-weather-forecast-cold-winter-2016-Britain-freeze

[patch38]

Maybe James Madden [who he? Ed.] should change the name of his company to Inexacta Weather?

[ellendune]

£500m is a lot of money.  The inland routes don't seem so expensive as they first did. 

And £500 million is just to fix 400 metres you don't need many other 400 metre sections like that for Options C4 and C5 at £1,500 million

[grahame]

£500m is a lot of money.  The inland routes don't seem so expensive as they first did. 

And £500 million is just to fix 400 metres you don't need many other 400 metre sections like that for Options C4 and C5 at £1,500 million

But what needs to be spent at "Dawlish" to keep a railway connection through there into the future, even if the main line were to be rebuilt elsewhere?   Even if you re-open Okehampton to Bere Alston, and do so as a fast, double tracked main line with an elevated Exeter avoiding curve from Crediton towards Cullompton (3 hours London to Plymouth?), there's still going to be a wish / need for at least a single line that's available most of the time - and what will that cost?

[TaplowGreen]

£500m is a lot of money.  The inland routes don't seem so expensive as they first did. 

And £500 million is just to fix 400 metres you don't need many other 400 metre sections like that for Options C4 and C5 at £1,500 million

My suspicion is the much lower priced option of keeping fingers crossed and hoping the weather isn't too bad will ultimately be the chosen solution.......after lengthy prevarication and lots of meetings of course.

[IndustryInsider]

For me, a lot depends on when the railway line is next shut for a prolonged period.  If we have a few years of no major breaches and just the current situation where trains often have to run wrong-road or stopped altogether for a few hours, then I'm with TG.  If there's another 'big one' that comes along soon and destroys the defences and closes the line for several day like what happened in 2014 then I can see pressure on the government being too strong for them to ignore having to spend big.

In other words, keep your fingers crossed for some storms... 

[adc82140]

James Madden and Nathan Rao's "forecasting" are the butt of many jokes over on the Netweather forums. Madden is an "alternative" forecaster (ie reading the tealeaves or something). I think they work on the stopped clock principle- it's still right twice a day.

[ellendune]

£500m is a lot of money.  The inland routes don't seem so expensive as they first did. 

And £500 million is just to fix 400 metres you don't need many other 400 metre sections like that for Options C4 and C5 at £1,500 million

My suspicion is the much lower priced option of keeping fingers crossed and hoping the weather isn't too bad will ultimately be the chosen solution.......after lengthy prevarication and lots of meetings of course.

I agree with both Industry Insider and Taplow Green. That is what is likely to happen.  I just think it is not what should happen. 

[AMLAG]

This subject seems one of the lengthiest and most interesting, not least because of the increasingly recognised and numerous benefits of reinstatement of the former Southern main line between Exeter and Plymouth.
A new parkway station at Sourton (next to the A30/A386/A3079 interchange) was mentioned again only yesterday by N.Cornwall Conservative MP^▸ (Member of Parliament) Scott Mann, at a packed public meeting in Bude attended by 115 (yes 115) people wanting a Railway closer than a 100+ mile round trip to Exeter.

£500 million for just 400 metres of new railway; are NR^» (Network Rail - home page) joking or is it to be gold plated ?
Surely if this proposed deviation is to be further out from the coast it will be more prone to 'overtopping' by the waves ?
 Incidentally the threat of a SE 'Breeze' of 16-20 mph at high tides between 3 and 6 Oct  caused about 30 XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) 'Voyager' services to be cancelled west of Exeter, with passengers having their journeys delayed by up to TWO hours through having to travel on other services.
Has any thought been given to construction of an Avalanche shelter (as found on the Kyle line) over the existing railway ?

[broadgage]

Does anyone know what form the proposed few hundred meters for £500 million track would take ?

I can only think of two reasonably realistic options, neither very attractive.

one would be to build the line a little further offshore on some form of solid embankment or sea wall, somewhat higher than existing line of EXTREMELY substantial construction. Since the force of the waves tends to increase offshore this would be a massive undertaking.
And what is to happen to the present beach ? keep it as a stagnant landlocked lagoon ? or fill it in at yet more expense.
I cant see this being acceptable to the local people. Loss of beach in a seaside resort ? And even the view of the now more distant sea being blocked by a substantial concrete structure at least a couple of meters higher than the present track level.

Another option would be to put the new line offshore on some form of bridge or pier that is raised on legs, between which the sea flows un-impeded. That would still spoil the view and obstruct the movement of boats. Such a structure would be vulnerable to impact by ships, and to currents undermining the foundations.

Whilst an "avalanche shelter" might help to break the force of the waves, trains would still be subjected to a great deal of salt water, and the sea wall would be just as vulnerable to being washed away.
And I doubt that it would be acceptable visually, remembering the clearances needed between the shelter and the soon! to be erected overhead.

An inland route starts to look more attractive.

[Rapidash]

As I've probably mentioned/ranted about previously: The population of the part of North Devon the route goes through is negligible, so would have a very minimal local service, beyond diversions

Compare that to the half million between Torbay and Exeter, with multiple stations with a million + pax journeys per year, the logic of retention and reinforcement becomes clear.

I know alot of people hyper-fixate on getting to Cornwall, but the local situation has to be considered.

Not sure that the XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) services being cancelled can be used as an argument - that's a train fault, not a infrastructure issue per se.

[TonyK]

I am currently at my country abode, where this was top of the news for a day or two. The mischief to be solved is not seawater washing the track away, but cliffs collapsing onto the track. That was said to have been a bigger technical challenge thand the Dawlish rebuild.

£500 million does indeed seem a lot of cash compared to Okehampton, but this would not be a diversionary route. It is, remember, the only rail route into arguably the poorest county in England, which has to count for something.

The best way to stop seawater from shorting out Voyagers would seem to be to not use Voyagers on that route - a question for the compilers of the next franchise document to ponder, perhaps. This new causeway, if it ever happens, won't be ready before then.

[grahame]

From the Okehampton Times

Implication that ‘northern route’ rail line is not a priority

Friday, 28 October 2016 By Sally Shipton in Transport

TRANSPORT secretary Chris Grayling has implied that the protection of the South Devon railway route was a priority over reopening an alternative route through Okehampton.

[trainbuff]

The full report correctly states that other things will be needed other than the defence of the Dawlish Route. Link here:

http://www.okehampton-today.co.uk/article.cfm?id=416753&headline=Implication%20that%20%E2%80%98northern%20route%E2%80%99%20rail%20line%20is%20not%20a%20priority&sectionIs=news&searchyear=2016


It has to be a priority for the current ONLY route through Devon between Exeter and Plymouth to be maintained. Even £500m is cheaper than any other option.

It is therefore not surprising that the Okehampton line, and I am a strong supporter of the Northern route, has less priority!

In some ways the Okehampton Times article is a 'non news' story. It is reported in the article that later the need for the Northern Route will exist.

Some things clearly need to have a greater priority than others but these details will come out once the Peninsula Rail Task Force report is finally produced.

[ellendune]

The full report correctly states that other things will be needed other than the defence of the Dawlish Route. Link here:

Link


It has to be a priority for the current ONLY route through Devon between Exeter and Plymouth to be maintained. Even £500m is cheaper than any other option.

I agree that the south Devon Route must be protected, but the proposal to spend £500m on a short length out in the sea, set me wondering whether in the long run one of the slightly inland routes might be as cheap.