Now, exactly what would you see if the light did get right through the tunnel? The sun's width is 0.53
o (31'), and the tunnel is 2930 m long. I'm not sure of its width, but I've guessed at 8 m, so the far portal would appear as 0.15
o wide. So those pictures of a little Sun framed in the portal were taken just a few steps into the tunnel - from the far end, you see a gleam that might be tunnel-shaped, certainly not roundly Sun-shaped.
I found
an Excel workbook with the sums included as VBA, which seems to be pretty reliable. On the other hand, some of the numbers I've assumed have an distinct odour of damp finger about them. If you know better, do say.
First note that the azimuth of sunrise, however defined, moves at about 0.62
o per day near the equinox. The calendar and varying synchronisation of the Earth's spin with sunrise moves the position over a total range of about 1.4
o, but the formulas know about that. But that does mean that the just-risen Sun overlaps its position yesterday just a little, giving you a day's wiggle room.
Now the range of elevations at which you could see Sun down the tunnel is the gradient (-0.57
o) plus the effect of refraction (-0.57
o) and either the look-down from your eye height (-0.03
o) and down half the Sun's width (-0.27
o) or the height of the portal (+0.16
o, based on 8 m) and up half the Sun's width (+0.27
o) if you crouch right down: -1.44
o to -0.71
o. Refraction does vary a bit around that average value.
At an elevation within that range, the sun has to be at the right azimuth. I have that as 79.36
o plus or minus the tunnel width (0.16
o if you can move to the sides) and the Sun's width (0.27
o): 78.94
o to 79.78
o.
This year, on the 9th, at -0.7
o elevation the azimuth is 76.77
o - out of sight. It is in the azimuth range at elevations of +1
o or more - out of sight uptheway.
Wikipedia reports it did happen on April 5th in 1992: I get it at 79.17
o azimuth (pretty central) at -0.7
o elevation, and going out of the side at -0.9
o. That has a fair chance it would be visible.
Note that even a rough surface reflects much better than you'd expect if light falls on it at a very shallow angle. Being damp would also help a lot. So you might see a bit, even if the Sun is strictly out of sight. Of course if you'd never seen the "real" thing, you wouldn't know that wasn't it.