Post electrification rolling stock

[whole diary]

[litecactus]

Apologies if this is in the wrong place/ mentioned already.

The original plan was, when the new thameslink stock is introduced, the class 319's would be split between the North West, and the Thames Valley.
However I heard that the Thames Valley would get the class 387's instead. Is this true? what would happen to the class 377/5's?

[Network SouthEast]

There's nothing confirmed about what units we'll be getting in Thames Valley yet.

However, it seems likely the stock will be capable of at least 110mph, be ready for ETCS^▸ (European Train Control System) fitment and have SDO^▸ (Selective Door Opening), as this is what has been repeated by Network Rail and the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about). This would rule out the 319s.

Now if you do a bit of detective work, you'll note that the current class 387 order ticks the above boxes - plus there's an option to order further units increasing the fleet size to 54 (currently 29 units on order). The current FGW^▸ (First Great Western) Turbo fleet is 57 units. Some of these will need to be retained for the North Downs line and the shuttles to Bedwyn, so there could be a modest net increase in fleet in the Thames Valley.

Other possibilities are a new order. Gossip is floating around that there will be a GW^▸ (Great Western) electric rolling stock announcement before the end of this year.

Siemens have recently unveiled the Desiro City Express - a 115mph EMU^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit).
Bombardier have also announced a revamped Aventra - a 125mph EMU.
Hitachi will be looking to maximise work at their new production facility, I reckon we might see a 4-car class 395 derivative on offer.

If GW gets new rolling stock, as opposed to the 387s, I speculate that the 387s will remain in the TSGN franchise to enable a cascade to or allow the 313s to be retired from service and/or further strengthening of services.

[Southern Stag]

It already seems possible that the Southern 313s will be moved to the Great Northern routes out of Moorgate once Thameslink is complete. The new Thameslink Desiro City trains will take over a lot of services in the Southern area, and will also release 377/2s and 377/5s from the Thameslink routes back to Southern routes, so there should already be a fair increase in stock in the TSGN franchise area.

[eightf48544]

Just throwing pebble in the pond to see where the ripples go. Whilst it's good that's lot's of shiny new EMUs^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) in the offing a lot are going to be replacements for older EMUS and extra stock on already electrified lines thus until there are lot more miles of wire not many DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) are being released.

I would sugegst that we really need a build of around 30 3 car 173s to alow strengthening of exisitng services and scrapping of the 14Xs and maybe 150s and 153s although they could be kept for strengthening.

just a thought when teh IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) comes in on the GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) what about HST^▸ (High Speed Train)'s out of Marylebone replacing the 67s or maybe out of Padd via Royal Oak when Crossrail opens.

[anthony215]

Porterbrook have released some documents to show the work that will be needed on a number of different classes of units which will be needed to allow them to operate beyond 2020 which includes the class 143 dmu's.

I have not see anything for the class 153's and there does seem to be concern's from the industry about the state of these units  you can see already on a few of the units a bit of body sag. If this problem can be fixed then the most likely scenario is that they will be converted back into 2 carriage class 155's.

If any pacers remain after 2020 then only examples I think will be the three carriage class 144's with the class 150's also being another pre privatisation unit to remain in service along with the class 156/158 dmu's.

As we get towards 2020 I think we will be seing a shake up of the dmu fleet especially with many classes being moved across the uk. In particular FGW^▸ (First Great Western) could as we suspect get many class 165/166's with a small batch of class 150's kept for those routes which the turbo's cannto be accomodated.

The Wales & Borders franchise is looking like it will be getting the class 158's from FGW to operate services in west wales after SWML^▸ (South Western Mail Line) electrification is completed. The GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) will also require a fleet of emu's for services between Bath & Bristol to Cardiff & Swansea as well as for perhaps peak hour shuttles between Bristol Parkway and Bedminster.

[John R]

I would sugegst that we really need a build of around 30 3 car 173s to alow strengthening of exisitng services and scrapping of the 14Xs and maybe 150s and 153s although they could be kept for strengthening.

just a thought when teh IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) comes in on the GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) what about HST^▸ (High Speed Train)'s out of Marylebone replacing the 67s or maybe out of Padd via Royal Oak when Crossrail opens.

I like the idea of the HST's running on Chiltern, although as they are investing in new locos (I've got that right, haven't I?), it may be a long shot. But there's possibly enough benefit in running at 125 to knock a few more minutes off and reduce the time differential with Virgin a bit more.

As to a new build of dmu's, the time it would take to build a new order is now within a year of a significant cascade of Thames Turbo stock, which should relieve the stock shortage. Around the same time NW electrification will be finished, as will Edinburgh Glasgow, so quite a lot of dmu stock will be coming available. By the end of the Control Period there is also likely to be a high end cascade as Meridians are replaced with electric stock (I'm betting on 91+Mk 4s.), along with Trans Pennine, and Valley Lines. All in, that should enable most if not all Pacers to be retired as well as give enough additional stock for enhancements.

Mod Note: edited to fix quotes - bobm

[JayMac]

It must also be remembered that the Secretary of State for Transport (whoever that might be later this decade*) will have the power, by derogation, to allow rolling stock that isn't compliant with the Equality Act (2010) section 183 or RVAR (2010) to continue in service beyond 2020.

Should there be a shortage of compliant rolling stock at that time, it is highly unlikely that non-compliant rolling stock would be withdrawn. The derogation powers would, I believe, have to be used.


* Six years until 2020. That'll probably be another four or five Transport Ministers... 

[anthony215]

I have to state that I agree with you Bignosemac I suspect the class 143 fleet at least will remain in service for a year or two after 2020 just to allow the other dmu fleets such as the class 150/158's to have the necessary work done on them.

I do wonder if however if a new fleet of emu's is purchased for the Thames Valley region whether or not a msall number of additional units could be tagged on to work some electric services around Bristol. If the East-West line is re-opened fully to Cambridge then a Bristol -Oxford - Bedford - Cambridge service would be quite popular especially by those wishing to traveling across London to reach the Anglia region.

[Southern Stag]

Just throwing pebble in the pond to see where the ripples go. Whilst it's good that's lot's of shiny new EMUs^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) in the offing a lot are going to be replacements for older EMUS and extra stock on already electrified lines thus until there are lot more miles of wire not many DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) are being released.

I would sugegst that we really need a build of around 30 3 car 173s to alow strengthening of exisitng services and scrapping of the 14Xs and maybe 150s and 153s although they could be kept for strengthening.

just a thought when teh IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) comes in on the GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) what about HST^▸ (High Speed Train)'s out of Marylebone replacing the 67s or maybe out of Padd via Royal Oak when Crossrail opens.

There are some threads on other forums where someone has worked out all the potential cascades and it is quite possible for pacers and 153s to be withdrawn just with currently announced projects. Cardiff Valley Lines electrification will release all of the ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) pacer fleet and 150s to displace elsewhere too. Thames Valley electrification frees up the Turbos to get rid of FGW^▸ (First Great Western) pacers of possibly displace units elsewhere too. The full Lancashire Triangle electrification will free up quite a lot of Northern DMUs to help eliminate pacers. There's also much electrification happening in Scotland which should allow some DMUs to be moved South, although it's not clear of what type yet. I'm no fan of 150s but I think they've got a while left yet. If CP6^▸ (Control Period 6 - The five year period between 2019 and 2024) comes along and we get more electrification announced any new fleet of DMUs is going to have looked like a bad idea. Simply we should enough in service now to keep us going for a while, until its clear what the long term requirement is for DMUs. Remember it has been said that no ROSCO^» (Rolling Stock Owning Company - about) will fund a new order of DMUs currently, so any new order will have to involve government backing.

Edit:Forgot to mention Trans Pennine electrification. That should free up quite a large amount of modern Class 185 fleet for use elsewhere.

[John R]

I do wonder if however if a new fleet of emu's is purchased for the Thames Valley region whether or not a msall number of additional units could be tagged on to work some electric services around Bristol. If the East-West line is re-opened fully to Cambridge then a Bristol -Oxford - Bedford - Cambridge service would be quite popular especially by those wishing to traveling across London to reach the Anglia region.

You raise, indirectly, an interesting point. Everybody is going to want the shiny new units, and not the 25 year old hand me down Class 319s. For the Bristol area, I would think a few 4 coach 319s would be a more than adequate replacement for the current stock. Likewise for North West electrification. But I can't see TransPennine customers enjoying stock that's 20 years old than they currently have, unless the full blown refurb that has been touted is carried out. Nor Transport Scotland using them for the key Glasgow -Edinburgh route.

So some hard decisions will have to be made, as it's not cost effective to scrap them. As well as the political aspect (as discussed above), I suspect operational issues will be taken into account. So new units for the Thames Valley where the higher speed and acceleration will enable a more optimal integration with IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) services. I do wonder whether using 319s on the branches and Basingstoke services would be more cost effective, even with the dual maintenance overhead. Else there's a lot of capital cost tootling back and fore to Windsor, Marlow and Henley.

[Southern Stag]

I guess it will all depend on whether the 319s can be put to use somewhere other than the Thames Valley branches. A single fleet would be preferable, but scrapping 319s at what is probably only just over half their viable life makes no sense either. The MK3 Suburban unit provides a good solid base, and the interiors can be upgraded to provide a much more modern feel. SWT^▸ (South West Trains) Class 455s for example don't feel anything like the 30 years old they are. I'm not sure what the unit requirement would be for the whole North West triangle scheme so I don't know how many 319s we're talking about being available. One potential destination could be the Cardiff Valley lines. 315s displaced by Crossrail have been mooted but the 319s would be a better option being about 7 years younger and being built to the newer MK3 rather than PEP design.

[Rhydgaled]

You raise, indirectly, an interesting point. Everybody is going to want the shiny new units, and not the 25 year old hand me down Class 319s. For the Bristol area, I would think a few 4 coach 319s would be a more than adequate replacement for the current stock. Likewise for North West electrification. But I can't see TransPennine customers enjoying stock that's 20 years old than they currently have, unless the full blown refurb that has been touted is carried out.

I agree, 319s are probablly ok as Pacer/150 replacments in the Bristol area and the north-west. However, I would hope that TPE^▸ (Trans Pennine Express) gets proper regional express stock this time arround (an electric 3/4-car version of a 158). Sadly, there isn't much such stock arround (only the 444s and 5-WESes), so a new build is required.

Just throwing pebble in the pond to see where the ripples go. Whilst it's good that's lot's of shiny new EMUs^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) in the offing a lot are going to be replacements for older EMUS and extra stock on already electrified lines thus until there are lot more miles of wire not many DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) are being released.

I would sugegst that we really need a build of around 30 3 car 173s to alow strengthening of exisitng services and scrapping of the 14Xs and maybe 150s and 153s although they could be kept for strengthening.

just a thought when teh IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) comes in on the GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) what about HST^▸ (High Speed Train)'s out of Marylebone replacing the 67s or maybe out of Padd via Royal Oak when Crossrail opens.

There are some threads on other forums where someone has worked out all the potential cascades and it is quite possible for pacers and 153s to be withdrawn just with currently announced projects. Cardiff Valley Lines electrification will release all of the ATW^▸ (Arriva Trains Wales (former TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company))) pacer fleet and 150s to displace elsewhere too. Thames Valley electrification frees up the Turbos to get rid of FGW^▸ (First Great Western) pacers of possibly displace units elsewhere too. The full Lancashire Triangle electrification will free up quite a lot of Northern DMUs to help eliminate pacers. There's also much electrification happening in Scotland which should allow some DMUs to be moved South, although it's not clear of what type yet. I'm no fan of 150s but I think they've got a while left yet. If CP6^▸ (Control Period 6 - The five year period between 2019 and 2024) comes along and we get more electrification announced any new fleet of DMUs is going to have looked like a bad idea. Simply we should enough in service now to keep us going for a while, until its clear what the long term requirement is for DMUs. Remember it has been said that no ROSCO^» (Rolling Stock Owning Company - about) will fund a new order of DMUs currently, so any new order will have to involve government backing.

I agree with that, although it now looks like ValleyLines electrification has slipped to CP6 which makes it too late to help in getting rid of Pacers sadly.

Edit:Forgot to mention Trans Pennine electrification. That should free up quite a large amount of modern Class 185 fleet for use elsewhere.

And therein lies the problem. We'll have lots of suburban stock kicking arround (185s, 165s, 166s, 150s and perhaps some ex-Scotrail/TPE 170s) but still very little in the way of rolling stock suitable for long-distance rural services (especially if the 153s have to be scrapped rather than converted back into 155s) or regional express services. I fear the Cardiff-Portsmouth service becoming 166s/165s instead of propper regional express stock. If we build any more DMUs in my opinion they should be 158s (or, prefrably, a bi-mode version, which could have an otherwise identical electric-only version for TPE).

[anthony215]

The suggetsion of using class 319's which have been overhauled/refurbished on the Cardiff Valley Lines Network would be a better idea since they look to be in better condition than the class 315's as well as being younger. I wonder if Porterbrook have realised this and have suggested the idea to the WG/DFT^▸ (Department for Transport) especially if the GW^▸ (Great Western) gets new emu's

That rebuilt/refurbished class 317 & 321 can show us what we can do to an older emu to keep it in service.The class 319's would need some work done to them to improve their acceleration perhaps additional traction motors if they are to  work on the Valley Lines.

Modern Railways recently did an article on teh Cardiff Valley lines which looked at how the class 315 & 319's would compare to tram-trains on the Rhymney - Penarth route and you can see the difference.

[ChrisB]

I can't see Chiltern taking HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) frankly - too expensive to maintain & they don't like short hops between stations

[Rhydgaled]

Modern Railways recently did an article on teh Cardiff Valley lines which looked at how the class 315 & 319's would compare to tram-trains on the Rhymney - Penarth route and you can see the difference.

From my memory of Manchester Metrolink, trams mean an unacceptably small number of seats. Nobody should be forced to stand for more than arround 5 minutes outside commuting hours in my opinion. Other than that, the ROSCO^» (Rolling Stock Owning Company - about) man in Modern Railways made a strong case for trams/tram-trains on the core ValleyLines.