Severe Storm Predicted Sunday 27th / Monday 28th October 2013

[whole diary]

[thetrout]

Various sources quoting a "perfect storm" brewing in the Atlantic which if it hits the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) is said to be the worst storm in 20 years.

I'm not sure if this is scaremongering like the yearly "Worst winter in 100 years" articles in The Times and Daily Express papers. Which were recently played down by the MET Office

However GreaterAnglia have put this on their website, which makes me think this severe weather alert has some substantial basis to it... Either that or GA^▸ (Greater Anglia) are trying to offer their excuses   explanations in advance! The fact they have already permitted easement on Advance Tickets creates even more basis in my opinion!

http://www.greateranglia.co.uk/about-us/news/2013/10/customer-information

And here is an article from the Independent http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/worst-weather-since-the-great-storm-of-1987-uk-braces-for-hurricanestrength-winds-8901530.html

So... I must ask if FGW^▸ (First Great Western) have any contingency plans. And do they involve a prompt EVAC of all trains from Cornwall to avoid stock being stuck in Cornwall...


Photo from a Daily Wail Mail Article

[Electric train]

Advanced warnings were issued internally Friday, projects we asked to evaluate their planned work this weekend to a) reduce the risk to staff and b) risk of not completing works if the weather stops work mid way through

[ChrisB]

The Met Office don't issue joke alerts, so its definitely real.

Currently due to track sw-ne north of birmingham, with highest winds 60-80mph south & west of the low pressure

There will be disruption. Not much can be done, except to finish works as early as possible tomorrow night. Won't stop the trees falling thoigh

[thetrout]

The Met Office don't issue joke alerts, so its definitely real.

Indeed. Interesting how FGW^▸ (First Great Western) have not suggested abandoning non essential travel during this period. At least if they have, It's certainly not easy to find on their website!

Sadly this seems to be the case with FirstGroup in general. I am very much conscious of them publicising amended Bus Services in Frome less than 24 hours before a significant part of the route would be closed, missing one bus and having to get a train 30 minutes later snowballed into a delay of well over 2 hours by the time I got to Southend Victoria. No disrespect to the organisers, but that delay was completely avoidable had the information been advertised with reasonable notice. Less than 24 hours for PLANNED amendments is not in my opinion acceptable and I certainly was not best pleased.

[JayMac]

The Met Office don't issue joke alerts, so its definitely real.

Although on 15-16 October 1987, Michael Fish told us not to worry, as there wasn't a hurricane on the way. Telling us it would just be a bit windy, with the worst of it over Spain and France. 

I heard several announcements at stations in the west and south west today, warning that there was likely to be disruption on Monday and to check before travelling.

I'm not ignoring the warnings. Hatches have been battened.

[anthony215]

Seems most of the storm will have cleared South Wales by the time I got to work on monday although I will be out delivery shopping to peoples doorsteps in terrible weather.

I think I am going to look terrible by the time I get back home at 10pm on monday night.

[John R]

The Met Office don't issue joke alerts, so its definitely real.

Indeed. Interesting how FGW^▸ (First Great Western) have not suggested abandoning non essential travel during this period. At least if they have, It's certainly not easy to find on their website!

Sadly this seems to be the case with FirstGroup in general. I am very much conscious of them publicising amended Bus Services in Frome less than 24 hours before a significant part of the route would be closed, missing one bus and having to get a train 30 minutes later snowballed into a delay of well over 2 hours by the time I got to Southend Victoria. No disrespect to the organisers, but that delay was completely avoidable had the information been advertised with reasonable notice. Less than 24 hours for PLANNED amendments is not in my opinion acceptable and I certainly was not best pleased.

First Capital Connect have this on their website, so clearly some areas of First Group are better than you're suggesting.

Major disruption
Severe weather forecast for Sunday night and Monday

High winds and heavy rain are forecast across the South East of England on Sunday night and Monday morning.

Services are expected to be severely disrupted and may be suspended on some routes. We are expecting to have to operate a revised timetable with fewer and slower services. We advise you not to travel if your journey isn't essential.

Please take extra care if you are travelling.

If we are required to implement a revised timetable or if services are disrupted, we will advise you here. We strongly advise you to check before travelling.

[Timmer]

Link to the page on National Rail Enquiries website where details are being gathered regarding service changes:
http://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service_disruptions/60152.aspx

East Coast have already posted a revised timetable for Monday. I wouldn't have been too chuffed to have turned up at King's Cross for the 1200 Highland Chieftain service to Inverness only to find it had left an hour earlier! Hope those who are booked on this service going North of Edinburgh check before setting out.

Nothing on the FGW^▸ (First Great Western) website (sigh) which will be one of the worst affected TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company) if all goes according to the forecast.

SWT^▸ (South West Trains) put this up on their website a couple of days ago: http://www.southwesttrains.co.uk/alerts.aspx

[ellendune]

Nothing on the FGW^▸ (First Great Western) website (sigh) which will be one of the worst affected TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company) if all goes according to the forecast.

Looking at the forecast gust speeds, although in the far south west the forecast is bad, the worst is along the South Coast. So East of Dawlish FGW is perhaps less badly affected than SWT^▸ (South West Trains), Southern and South East.  Greater Anglian and East Coast are obviously anticipating problems with overhead wires.

For those in Cornwall and West Devon this will be disruptive it may not be as bad for the rest of FGW (which is most people - sorry west Devon and Cornwall)

[bobm]

Hmmm.. going to South Devon tomorrow and returning on Monday - with my train set to pass the seawall around hightide on Monday lunchtime.

Still I got there last week despite lightening strikes so we will see!

[onthecushions]

IIRC^▸ (if I recall/remember/read correctly), our Region (InterCity Great Western and Thames and Chiltern) did quite well in the storm of 1987.

The lack of modernisation (such as overhead wires or bits of modernised stations that could become airborne) seemed to make for a robust system.

I seem to remember a 60mph limit, (virtually all the then 1950's DMU^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit)'s could do), lots of delays but travellers reaching their destination eventually.

Is your journey really necessary (on Monday)?

Good Luck,

OTC

[Chris from Nailsea]

Still I got there last week despite lightening strikes so we will see!

Hmm.  Apparently, Bob Crow is still trying to arrange lightning strikes ... 

[Timmer]

Starting to get reports of a possible downgrade to the forecast of the forthcoming storm so maybe FGW^▸ (First Great Western) knew something that others didn't hence not putting anything about severe weather on their website 

Before anyone thinks I am saying there won't be problems I am not. Still expecting quite a wild night/first part of the morning which could bring disruption to parts of the network but nothing as severe as the media have been ramping up over the past few days.

[Timmer]

Latest from the Met office is for the storm to pass over more quickly than first thought overnight but still pack a punch with some strong winds expected.

[didcotdean]

More hysterical parts of the media have been portraying it as comparable with 1987 or 1990, whereas the predictions put it currently more at the same level as three lesser storms we have had in the last ten years. The low has not been deepening quite as quickly and hence the worst of the winds may turn out to be in the east of England rather than the west (and then in Denmark and Germany). So precautions for the ECML^▸ (East Coast Main Line) may not be far of the mark. Still plenty of time for things to change though - and there are already early signs in the forecast of another storm for next weekend, potentially of comparable size.