December Timetable at Melksham

[whole diary]

[Network SouthEast]

Well, given that their deadline for submissions is 21 days before the date of publication (in this case, 04/09/13), I'd suggest that "things have moved on some" since that was written.

Subscribers receive Rail magazine the Saturday before it hits the shops. So by the time you buy a copy in the shops the magazine is probably a week old already!

[bobm]

Well, given that their deadline for submissions is 21 days before the date of publication (in this case, 04/09/13), I'd suggest that "things have moved on some" since that was written.

Subscribers receive Rail magazine the Saturday before it hits the shops. So by the time you buy a copy in the shops the magazine is probably a week old already!

Oh I wish we still did, since they moved away from Royal Mail handling the distribution end to end it now arrives on the day it hits the shops if you are lucky...  But yes the point is valid - the electronic edition comes out over the previous weekend.

[grahame]

The First Great Western booking engine now provides information and sells seats up until 13th December.



with some brief comments from me (and Sunday times) {here}

[bobm]

I'll be there!

[JayMac]

My plan is to catch the first train from Westbury on Sunday 8th December, have a stroll around Melksham and then  lunch somewhere and return mid afternoon.

[grahame]

I'm planning my schedule to be around and about on 8th December and hope to bump into you. However, a word of caution is required in that significant service level changes go through a long process which can take up to surprisingly close to the date of service change to be 100% sure.   I'm not aware that First are even signed up fully to run trains in the SW beyond mid October yet ... and after that's all agreed between the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) and First, or the Direct Operated Railways alternative is announced instead, there will remain the matter of local extension agreements to be completed as well.  Everyone is very much committed to making this happen from what I'm aware of, but we can't rule out the possibility of a curved ball, or indeed one or two of the other balls I already know about, changing things.

[Network SouthEast]

Grahame is right to be cautious. A few years ago Southern's 4th train per hour between London Victoria and Brighton was knocked on the head at the 11th hour by the ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about), by which time timetables had already been printed showing the non-existent extra services. OK, so the Brighton services were more contentious than the Melksham ones are, but perhaps it is wise to wait for a Track Access application to get the nod first before getting too carried away.

[BandHcommuter]

This is good news and I hope everything falls into place for a successful launch. I think the challenge for FGW^▸ (First Great Western), the community rail partnership and other stakeholders will be to promote the service sufficiently to attract decent off peak usage and ensure that the service remains a sustainable proposition. I sometimes used the 14xx from Swindon to Westbury when it was running eight or nine years ago, and was surprised on a couple of occasions to be the only passenger between Chippenham and Trowbridge. The late evening service (22xx from Swindon) was rather better used, however I notice that no late evening service is planned at present. No doubt the service pattern can be refined over time. I wonder what build up of demand is expected by the funders of this service, and how quickly they expect the passenger numbers to grow?

[grahame]

I am very tempted to launch into a long post here ... but it's probably better for me to give you a few headline thoughts.

There is good information, much of it first hand, about the 2001 to 2006 service, and experience to be learned from. As it was, the decision for the current franchise was a very close call, even with some of the very general statistics (such as future growth rate) dramatically underestimated - remember how 3 cars were cut to 2, "More train less strain", dreadful performance - that was the effect on other lines. On the TransWilts, the last 17:35 Swindon to Westbury left Chippenham as a very busy 150, and with a very brave Andrew Griffiths from First taking the wrath of passengers who had only just learned that they would have to wait 70 minutes longer for there evening train from the following Monday, and leave home 30 minutes earlier in the morning too. 

Every service has its quiet trains (try the 19:00 Cheltenham Spa to Paddington or the 15:53 Bristol Parkway to Bath, or the 20:55 Chippenham to Paddington) but few people are on them so most people report busy services and have a far rosier picture than's really the case.   Yes - Community Rail is particularly useful in helping to pick those up and promote them.  And we do have targets / projections.

We learn from the past, but we make sure it's all joined up for the future.   I started to write a list of differences and I came up with Publicity, Community, Opportunities offered, Operator, Reliability, Sustainable agenda and PCness of using public transport, Population, Information Systems, Associated support, Integration, Awareness and thoroughness.  Take those 12 changes, each of which will have a positive nudge or shove to it, and apply it to a previously arguable / borderline case, and you may guess the result we're looking to achieve.

[BandHcommuter]

Thanks for a very comprehensive reply to a relatively casual observation 

It sounds as though there will be lots going to generate momentum, which is good news.

[grahame]

Thanks for a very comprehensive reply to a relatively casual observation 

It's great to be tested - and better now to check we've thought of everything than later on when we say "oops, we missed xxx".

[John R]

An interesting point about the anticipated enhanced service is that it offers a much better service frequency from Melksham to Bath and Bristol than might be expected of a 2 hourly service. So as an example there are 4 possible peak departures from Bristol between 1700 and 1900, all with very reasonable journey times. And in the other direction 3 arrivals before 0900. This is due to the two possible routings via Chippenham or Trowbridge.

[grahame]

An interesting point about the anticipated enhanced service is that it offers a much better service frequency from Melksham to Bath and Bristol than might be expected of a 2 hourly service.

 

Try also Melksham to Filton Abbey Wood, and Melksham to Taunton.

The beauty is that these are quite frequent journeys, and we're already looking at timetable information provision to help people coming back from these places to know where it's best to change.

[bobm]

As has often been said it is not just Melksham which benefits.

Swindon to Westbury becomes much easier - from where you can connect into services to the South West and South Coast.  It is amazing how important a length of line just over eight miles long is to so many journeys!

[Lee]

I wonder what build up of demand is expected by the funders of this service, and how quickly they expect the passenger numbers to grow?

I have used two sources for the information below - The original Wiltshire Council LSTF^▸ (Local Sustainable Transport Fund) application and a subsequent report to Wiltshire Council Cabinet.

Quantifiable benefits ^ Rail service improvements

The main benefits of the rail element are providing a rail service for Melksham and providing significantly improved journey times between western Wiltshire and Swindon that are competitive with car travel while removing the need to change trains at Bath.

Demand forecasting is difficult in a situation which is effectively a rail re-opening, given the large proportionate change in rail service provision. The Council has reviewed a number of forecasts of different scheme variants to come to its view relative to the chosen option. Demand for the service is expected to be about 45,000 passengers per annum (ppa) in the first year, rising through 90,000ppa to reach about 120,000ppa after five years. Resulting revenues are similarly expected to increase from ^220,000 per annum to about ^600,000 per annum.

Benefits (largely reductions in waiting time and interchange penalties) accrue to both business and non-business sectors in the ratio 40:60 and are expected to be around ^700,000 per annum. This gives an overall benefit to cost ratio of around 2, indicating ^high^ value for money, solely on the benefits from the rail improvements, and not including the benefits associated with the complementary measures.

As part of the LSTF bid, FGW^▸ (First Great Western) identified the following three year subsidy requirement if the train service commenced in May 2013 (November 2011 prices):

2013/14 ^0.572m

2014/15 ^0.603m

2015/16 ^0.159m

Obviously, the service is now almost certain (touch wood) to commence in December 2013, and that shift in dates should be bourne in mind when assessing the figures.

Rail service improvements

Wiltshire Council has made the commitment to provide a maximum subsidy outside of the LSTF period of ^250,000 for the provision of the improved rail service in 2015/16. The precise level of this subsidy will be determined in close cooperation with the train operating company ^ the indicative level of subsidy for 2015/16 is ^160,000 (November 2011 prices).

Current projections indicate that the service would likely require less revenue support after 2015/16 and therefore discussions have taken place between Wiltshire Council and the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) to confirm that, subject to successful service in years 1 to 3, consideration would be given to incorporating the service into DfT assuming responsibility for ongoing funding under the published policy for local and regional rail services.

Interestingly, although I cant provide a link as the Save The Train blog archive is no longer available, the fully costed report on a Westbury-Swindon service at similar frequency levels to the forthcoming service that STT^▸ (Save the Train) published and was promoting between 2006-2008 also showed a very similar move towards "break-even" in the first years, along with little or no subsidy being required after that.

Although that was unfortunately rejected back then thus setting us back a few years, perhaps it is better that we are moving forward together now with a proposal that all involved from WC^▸ (Wiltshire Council (Unitary Authority)), FGW through to the CRP^▸ (Community Rail Partnership) and local groups such as MRDG^» (Melksham Railway Development Group - about), WWRUG^» (West Wiltshire Rail Users Group - about), Westbury Train Watch and others, backed by key figures such as MPs^▸ (Member of Parliament) Duncan Hames and his collegues, can agree should grow, succeed and are incentivised to help ensure that it does.