Carmarthen and Aberystwyth

[whole diary]

[Red Squirrel]

What are the chances of this one happening?

Hundreds join call over railway line reopening

By Rebecca Jones

MORE than 900 people have signed an online petition to reopen rail links between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth.

The petition, which was started by Rhodri Evans, saw 909 signatures in just three days and the number is still climbing.

The online campaign is urging the Welsh Government to reopen the train line from Carmarthen to Aberystwyth, which was closed to passengers in the 1960s.

See full article in 'This Is South Wales'.

Applying the Squirrel Formula, I reckon that's 50 miles x ^10 million/mile = ^500 million. And both terminal points are alreay rail-connected. But it has to be said that the 'via England' route is a very long way round.

[IndustryInsider]

What are the chances of this one happening?

Slim to non-existent in my opinion.

[ChrisB]

Slightly better than that as it would be the Welsh Government funding it - and they've more money than the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) equivalent. Still slim though, I agree

[Red Squirrel]

Slightly better than that as it would be the Welsh Government funding it - and they've more money than the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) equivalent. Still slim though, I agree

That's my view - without the Welsh angle, it would be on par (sic) with Padstow. But there are politics here - you can't get from South to North by rail without going via England as things stand, which makes Wales look like two countries not one.

[grahame]

As the promoters are Carmarthen based, it's natural for them to look on the route from their town.  How about the alternative Builth Road to Moat Lane Junction - much shorter and you might get a link from the Cambrian coast back up to Bangor too for about your 50 miles.   Reconnecting Caernarvon (pop 10,000) to the main rail network, and joining all three of the railway sections in Wales.   

Yes - these all very long, speculative shots.   "Not in the foreseeable future", but then who would have foreseen 30 miles of railway coming back to Galashiels, pop 12,500, when the Waverley route was closed?

[IndustryInsider]

The borders route will go to Edinburgh which is a massive centre of employment and should enable commuting to work within an hour for all the stations on the route.  Are Aberystwyth or Carmarthen a similar draw for the commuting population?  No.  And Swansea/Cardiff would be too far away to commute to.  So, if you don't have a large commuter base you're relying on tourists and day trippers to make up the numbers.  I don't see enough principal settlements or places of interest on the route to provide either in the numbers that would be required.  Are there really enough people out there that would use such a link to justify finding half-a-billion pounds (using Red Squirrel's estimate) to build it and then find more money to subsidise operating it?

[BandHcommuter]

From the "This is South Wales" article:

Despite the Welsh towns being just 50 miles apart, at the moment passengers are forced to make a six-hour train journey via England.

It may be that some of the potential passengers use the frequent Arriva bus service between the two locations, which despite being rather slow on a long and winding road, takes considerably less than 6 hours. Perhaps connectivity could be improved with better value for money to the taxpayer with a few well-targeted road improvements. If there is public subsidy available, perhaps a properly specified bus or coach service which operates as if it were part of the rail network could be contracted?

[trainer]

I agree that even with the generous Welsh Assembly this is an unlikely re-instatement.  The engineering obstacles begin at the buffer end of the platforms at Carmarthan (a river). 

Similarly, having recently visited the Bangor/Caernarfon area, I noted how much of the old track formation has been built over and major deviations would now need to be built on just that short stretch.  I must admit that the thought of mixed gauge track between Dinas (formerly Junction) and Caernarfon along the Welsh Highland formation in order to connect down to the Lleyn Peninsular brings a smile to my face. 

[anthony215]

Highly unlikely as you will need to make some modifcations ot the current route as the trackbed is too twisty and slow so Carmarthen - Aberystwyth is likely to take 1 hour 45 minutes at the very best.

The high cost is also another resason why such a link is unlikely to go ahead


Plus in order to keep journey times as low as possible I suspect there would be very few stations along the route which agan may put off some people using the service if they have to drive a good distance to the nearest station.

Of course if new settlements etc were built as part of the line re-opening with perhaps an hourly service to Carmarthen and Swansea perhaps it could be justified.

Hopefully soon Arriva will pull the plug on their Aberystwyth - Carmarthen Cymru express service which doesnt seem to be doing to well. Hopefully then the Welsh Government will put on their TC1 service which would have run hourly from Aberystwyth to Carmarthen/Swansea from 6am til around 10pm.

[Red Squirrel]

In truth there are no reliable processes or analyses that can predict the effect of opening a railway. It's a punt, and always has been.

What we do know is that most of the places that the railways were built to serve grew as a direct result, whereas places bypassed by the railways didn't grow. I think we are also pretty sure that whereas a good train service attracts investment, a good bus service doesn't - because a rail service shows commitment, whereas a bus operator can up-sticks in an instant.

Out of interest, does anyone know of a re-opening project of the last 30 years that has not exceeded its passenger and revenue forecasts?

[welshman]

Sadly, no chance.  Much of the trackbed is still there but it should not be forgotten that the line was closed in advance of the Beeching cuts because it was flooded at Llanilar and part of the track/embankment was washed away.

Most is now part of the Ystwyth Trail cycle track.

[John R]

^500m ish to create a railway that would serve two communities the size of Carmarthen and Aberystwyth is in cloud cuckoo land territory. You'd be better off using the interest payable on the loan required to build the link (let alone worrying about paying off the capital) to provide a free frequent high quality non stop coach service, which could do the journey in 90 mins (source theAA.com). 

[Red Squirrel]

^500m ish to create a railway that would serve two communities the size of Carmarthen and Aberystwyth is in cloud cuckoo land territory. You'd be better off using the interest payable on the loan required to build the link (let alone worrying about paying off the capital) to provide a free frequent high quality non stop coach service, which could do the journey in 90 mins (source theAA.com). 

Except that a bus is not a substitute for rail - that is the main thing Beeching got wrong.

I agree that no-one is likely to sanction an investment of this size unless it met a political aspiration, or was linked to development - Lampeter New Town, anyone?

[ellendune]

As the promoters are Carmarthen based, it's natural for them to look on the route from their town.  How about the alternative Builth Road to Moat Lane Junction - much shorter and you might get a link from the Cambrian coast back up to Bangor too for about your 50 miles.   Reconnecting Caernarvon (pop 10,000) to the main rail network, and joining all three of the railway sections in Wales.   

Yes - these all very long, speculative shots.   "Not in the foreseeable future", but then who would have foreseen 30 miles of railway coming back to Galashiels, pop 12,500, when the Waverley route was closed?

Builth Road to Moat Lane is about 35 miles.  Still be a circuitous route though!

[Lee]

Out of interest, does anyone know of a re-opening project of the last 30 years that has not exceeded its passenger and revenue forecasts?

Ashchurch for Tewkesbury is an obvious example, although many (myself included) believe that if you provided a more regular service to the destinations passengers would actually like to travel to (ie Birmingham), then the figures would rapidly improve.

Walsall-Wolverhampton (direct) - Passenger services axed mid 1960s, reintroduced late 1990s, axed again late 2000s. Re-opening intermediate stations would probably have helped, while cutting the service back to a shuttle in the final years (it had previously extended to Wellington) probably didn't.

Melksham is a possible, but whether it strictly qualifies I don't know. I do know that BR^▸ (British Rail(ways)) originally wanted to offer more than the sparse re-introduced 1985 service they started with, but never went all that much further.

As we all know, opinion is divided on whether the genuine 2001-2006 attempt to run a multi-purpose service along the TransWilts corridor via Melksham was a success, with passengers/campaigners tending to be in the "yes" camp, and civil servants/rail executives tending to be in the "no" camp.

The overall lesson seems clear though - the more you frame your service offer towards what passengers actually want, the more successful your reopening project is likely to be, as obvious as that sounds.