Rail franchise row: Fears of Great Western 'overcrowding'

[whole diary]

[Kernow Otter]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-21380938

Simple really.  Just transfer the 180's to the South West regional fleet, which would free up a rake of 150's and derivatives back to the branchlines where they belong.

Discuss !

[Chris from Nailsea]

Many thanks for posting this story, Kernow Otter! 

It perhaps deserves a wider readership than our specific 'Plymouth and Cornwall' board, so I've moved it here, and I'm inclined to quote the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) article in full, to encourage discussion here:

The partnership said 2,027,544 journeys were made on the branch lines in 2012, a rise of 4.7% on the previous year

Rail experts are questioning whether train services in Devon and Cornwall will cope after a record number of journeys were made on its branch lines. In 2012, more than two million journeys were made on the seven lines, according to Devon and Cornwall Rail Partnership. The partnership, which promotes travel on rural branch lines, fears delays in securing a new franchise will mean a longer wait for new carriages.

Operator First Great Western said it would look to increase rolling stock.

Neil Gallacher, BBC South West's business correspondent, said part of the delay in securing a future franchise was the fallout caused by the collapse of the ^5bn West Coast Mainline deal. As a result, FGW^▸ (First Great Western)'s franchise was extended for six months until October.

Richard Burningham, of Devon and Cornwall Rail Partnership, said: "They [FGW] bring rolling stock down from Bristol, where it's not needed as much in the peak summer, to strengthen holiday services in Devon and Cornwall. That's a big help, but had the franchise started as we hoped in April then there would have been some nice goodies that we were are not going to get until it's resolved."

FGW, owned by FirstGroup, runs trains between London, the west of England, south Wales and parts of the Midlands after taking on the franchise in 2005.

Mr Gallacher said: "FGW's six month extension gives a breathing space for the government to negotiate a two-year mini-franchise on fresh terms. That also gives a breathing space for civil servants to work out how to run a fully-fledged tendering exercise that will choose the main rail operator for the 10 or 15 years that follow."

Retired railway manager Leonard Wooldridge, from Saltash, said: "I'm disappointed that we don't get any new rolling stock, the trains are very overcrowded and it's a grave concern for people here in the West Country."

The partnership said 2,027,544 journeys were made on the branch lines in 2012, a rise of 4.7% on the previous year.

Julian Crow, FGW regional manager, said the rise in passenger numbers was "great news". "Obviously we need to continue to look at ways of increasing rolling stock for these lines," he said.

A spokesman from the Department for Transport said: "The First Great Western franchise was one of three put on hold last October following the cancellation of the West Coast competition."

At the time, transport secretary, Patrick McLoughlin, said: "We have had to take some tough decisions regarding franchising, and while they may provide a challenge in the short term, I believe the lessons we have learnt will help deliver a more robust system in the future benefitting fare payers and taxpayers alike."

The branch lines in Devon and Cornwall are the Tarka^▸ (Line from Barnstaple to Exeter) Line, Tamar Valley Line, Looe Valley Line, Atlantic Coast Line to Newquay, Maritime Line to Falmouth Docks, St Ives Bay Line and the Avocet^▸ (Branch line from Exeter to Exmouth) Line to Exmouth.

[LiskeardRich]

This evidences the downside of FGW^▸ (First Great Western) success in Devon and Cornwall. FGW have gone from strength to strength in Devon and Cornwall, and as a result of their unprecedented success the passengers have outgrown the trains.

[FarWestJohn]

I can really believe this. I have just spent a week travelling around our patch with a Freedom of the south west rover.

Apart from an occasional standing load on a Voyager nothing compared with the Saturday 1244 Plymouth to Penzance. A two car 150 which I had extreme trouble squeezing on board, more like the underground!!
It was also the only train that I heard passengers complaining, especially those that had got off a terminating Voyager to continue their journey into Cornwall.

The 1206 weekday HST^▸ (High Speed Train) to Penzance is also extremely cosy at 1625 [if you are lucky] from Truro especially when the schools are not on holiday.

The main line service is extremely patchy and this shows up even more with all the branch line improvements.

Plenty of ticket checks on my travels and the RPO on the Exmouth branch yesterday was certainly earning his keep.

Overall timekeeping was very good apart from XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) going south from Cheltenham Spa. Also a signal failure between Chippenham and Bath slowed things up.

[LiskeardRich]

The main line service is extremely patchy and this shows up even more with all the branch line improvements.

The main line service is appaling compared to the branches in Cornwall.
No service from Truro going west between 1722 and 1850, The station is around a 25-30 min walk from all the industrial estates and office areas of Truro. From my office to the station takes 25minutes walk, the traffic out of Truro is terrible at 5pm, but I am left with no choice but to drive. A week season is also cheaper than a week petrol from Redruth, sadly the train is not a feasable option due to the poor service at evening peak, unless you want to stand around for 90 mins after accounting for the walking time.

[TonyK]

The main line service is appalling compared to the branches in Cornwall.

Difficult to see when it will get better. A few years ago, we spent a weekend in Cornwall, getting an off-peak HST^▸ (High Speed Train) hoe from Penzance. We had reserved seats. People were standing as we left Penzance, more got on than off at every station until Exeter. A 2-car 150 is always going to be inadequate on that route, although where more will come from is not immediately obvious.

[Southern Stag]

In the Summer it is better because most of the 150s have a 153 added on the mainline, if that was carried on year round it would be a good improvement. In Summer 2012 the 0935 Exeter-Penzance and 1251 Penzance-Newton Abbot where strengthened to 4 carriages, and it was certainly much needed on the down journey as it has the connection from the first London train of the day.

[grahame]

The 1206 weekday HST^▸ (High Speed Train) to Penzance is also extremely cosy at 1625 [if you are lucky] from Truro especially when the schools are not on holiday.

The main line service is extremely patchy and this shows up even more with all the branch line improvements.

The main line service is appaling compared to the branches in Cornwall
No service from Truro going west between 1722 and 1850 ...

In the 4 hours from 16:00 to 20:00 you have five departures - 16:26, 17:23, 18:47, 19:10, 20:00 ... with the prior train at 15:11 and the next at 20:11.   I'm very interested in your ideal, purely from a commuter's viewpoint returning home from a town with a lot of employment 20 minutes or so from the station - when would you like to see those 5 leave?  And what if you had only four (after all, the 20:00 and 20:11 pair might be considered near-duplicates for your commute!)?  Maps to a local situation in Wiltshire - I'm looking to learn here!

[LiskeardRich]

Grahame,  I finish work at 1700, walk 25-30 mins, miss 1723 by 2 mins, as do many other commuters as cant reach the station in time, which would mean waiting 90 mins for the next service, therefore left to drive or take the expensive bus (^27.50 per week bus vs rail ticket approx ^13 per week vs petrol ^20 per week for me @ 35mpg) stations to the east of truro will have no service at all during evening rush hour, St Austell for example is known for its horrendous traffic problems, and there is no realistic public transport alternatives.
I realise this doesnt compete with Melksham, but when the branchlines are getting 2 tph against 1tph badly timed on the mainline, it discourages commuters from Redruth and west taking the train to work.

[JayMac]

I finish work at 1700, walk 25-30 mins, miss 1723 by 2 mins, as do many other commuters as cant reach the station in time, which would mean waiting 90 mins for the next service,

Would a folding bicycle be a possible solution? Turn that 30 minute walk into a 15 minute bike ride. Although Richmond Hill may not be an enticing prospect after a days work.

[grahame]

Grahame,  I finish work at 1700, walk 25-30 mins, miss 1723 by 2 mins, as do many other commuters as cant reach the station in time, which would mean waiting 90 mins for the next service, therefore left to drive or take the expensive bus (^27.50 per week bus vs rail ticket approx ^13 per week vs petrol ^20 per week for me @ 35mpg) stations to the east of truro will have no service at all during evening rush hour, St Austell for example is known for its horrendous traffic problems, and there is no realistic public transport alternatives.
I realise this doesnt compete with Melksham, but when the branchlines are getting 2 tph against 1tph badly timed on the mainline, it discourages commuters from Redruth and west taking the train to work.

It's very different to the TransWilts, yes ... and yet there are similarities, and so I'm picking your brain.   We currently have an 18:44 departure from Swindon, and that's too late, to the extent of people not using, as per your 18:47.  There have been a number of draft options over the years for an extra / earlier service.   In days gone by, the service has varied - 17:15, 17:25 and 17:44, and it's worth my / our while learning from others in similar situations what they think of trains at each of these times.

Personal view (but with some background / knowledge) would favour extras at 15:44, 17:44, 19:44 and 21:44, with the 18:44 remaining, and arriving into Swindon in the morning at 06:35, 08:35, 10:35 and 12:35 (with the current 07:48 getting in at 07:35).   We've got another problem with our current morning train - too early, to the extent of people not using, which is exacerbated by the lateness of the evening train - who requires 11 hours in Truro Swindon for their working day?

On the Truro issue, I note that your 17:23 is a local unit that has a substantial turn around time in Penzance (perhaps it's even its last working of the day?).  Has anyone suggested running it - say - 20 minutes later, or would that effect dockyard workers, schoolkids in Plymouth, connections to Looe, Padstow, Falmouth and St Ives and trains coming t'other way?

[paul7575]

This a DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) controlled issue though, despite the supposed freedom for new TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company) to control their own rolling stock.  The only way any GW^▸ (Great Western) franchisee is going to get additional DMUs^▸ (Diesel Multiple Unit) suitable for the branches is following electrification of routes nearer London.  That process was originally to be driven by availability of post Thameslink 319 cascades, and now appears to be driven by DfT sponsoring Southern to order additional EMU^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) stock for use all over the country.

So how much is under the direct control of an incoming franchisee?  Everyone presumes that nearly all the GW Turbos will move to the west following electrification, but what happens if DfT decide some of the displaced 15X units should now go to the North West of the country?

I don't think the franchising delay will be as relevant to this matter as the DfT's overarching intentions nationally...

Paul

[swrural]

@RW  I presume your employer will not countenance flexi-time?  If you are behind a public counter and the sole employee doing that  - fair enough, otherwise the 2 minutes seems extraordinarily inflexible (take 28 mins for lunch?).

On the broader issue, I do not understand why all FGW^▸ (First Great Western) stock can only arrive via hand-me-downs from other franchisees.

It just does not make sense.  If FGW needs more stock in Cornwall, it could go out and order some from a leasing company could it not?  If leasing companies are interested in earning profits why don't they order a few suburban types like the Goblin line has done?  The design is on the shelf.  Why does the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) have to be involved at all?

It has been known about pax increases for over half a decade.

[John R]

One leasing company did purchase some dmus on a speculative basis early on in the privatisation era, and they were soon snapped up. However, they are currently very nervous about ordering dmus, particularly on a speculative basis, given the view within the industry that electrification will release enough dmus for the forseeable future. And I can sort of see their point, as there will be an abundance over the next 7 years. So more new dmus would just mean that some of their existing assets would likely become worthless earlier than they would have done.

The other factor is that new EU^» (European Union - about) emissions rules appears to make it very expensive to build an underfloor engine, if such a design even exists. This may be one of the reasons why Bombardier apparently quoted a very high price to lengthen the Goblin dmus they built a couple of years ago, although I am surprised a derogation would not be possible for reasons of compatability with the rest of the unit.

New dmus are of course much more expensive to lease than 20 years old ones, so their use on rural branch lines is unlikely to be financially viable. Even if full they are not able to pay their way, so the economics are more likely to favour a cascade of older stock, rather than a new build.

[grahame]

If FGW^▸ (First Great Western) needs more stock in Cornwall, it could go out and order some from a leasing company could it not? Why does the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) have to be involved at all?

Extra carriages are needed at peak time ... let's say that an extra mainline carriage generates an extra single fare (full fare) Penzance to Plymouth in the morning, and a similar return in the evening for each seat.  That's 2 x 15.70 = 31.40 per day.  This is an existing service / route, so under "cap and collar" as it's currently running, my understanding is that 80% of that income is knocked off the extra subsidy that FGW gets, in effect meaning that they get an income of 6.28 per seat.  

Multiply your 6.28 per seat by 70 seats, and then by 250 days of peak service in the year, and you have an income of around 110,000 pounds from the carriage. From which you have to take around 170,000 for the lease, and more for track access charges, and for fuel and for cleaning. If running as a separate train you have crew costs too.   You need to get the DfT involved to pay you back some of that 80% to make the result of that sum a positive number ... in effect that's what the 29 million (as I recall) for the return of the Adelantes for just over a year is all about.

I have been generous here in assuming that (a) all seats would be occupied for 4 hours a day (b) no children, off peak, or season ticket reductions involved and (c) these are all new passengers, and not just people who would have otherwise been standing in a 2 coach train but are now able to sit down because it's three!