Flood risk warning issued by Environment Agency

[whole diary]

[Chris from Nailsea]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

Soaking Britain may be in for a new bout of flooding in coming months, the Environment Agency has warned.

Rivers are full after the wettest April to June on record, followed by more rain in July, September and October.

The earth is saturated and in many areas there is no more space left in aquifers to store water that seeps through from the surface.

The agency warns that people should be ready for floods even with relatively small amounts of rain.

They warn of increased risk of river flooding in November and December, especially in the south-west and northern and western parts of England and Wales.

Devon, Dorset and Hampshire are also vulnerable to flooding from water coming up through the soaking ground because groundwater in aquifers moves much more slowly than surface water, and will take more time to flow away underground.

Sarah Jackson, the Met Office's chief adviser to the government, said: "We are heading into the winter period which is traditionally the wetter period of the year in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom). Because the ground is so wet, if we do have any prolonged heavy rainfall in any part of the country, there is going to be heightened risk of flooding."

With regards to areas at risk of flooding, Peter Fox - of the Environment Agency - said it was most concerned about south west England and Wales.

"It has been a topsy turvy year for us. Our experts were very surprised by the results of the summer rain," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

The agency said more than 1.1 million people are signed up to receive its flood warnings - which can be sent by email, text, or a message to a landline or mobile phone.

Now, I don't want to seem churlish, but I am rather concerned at the quality of such 'expert' opinion ... 

[6 OF 2 redundant adjunct of unimatrix 01]

just out of interest does the met office have to comply with freedom of information requests? would love to know how they can spend millions and get results no better than someone predicting weather in the shed at the bottom of the garden

[ellendune]

Now, I don't want to seem churlish, but I am rather concerned at the quality of such 'expert' opinion ... 

This year has broken all the rules of hydrological forecasting.  It has always been said that rainfall occurring after the end of March, when plant growth starts and trees start to come into leaf, will never recharge the groundwater we use for drinking water in most of the south and south west of England. At the end of last winter groundwater levels were at crisis point as a third dry winter would have created a major crisis in water supply. That is why there was a hose-pipe ban. 

What happened this summer was without precident since records began. There was so much summer rainfall that groundwater levels are nearly all back to normal.  At the end of September only two of the Environment Agency's 29 reporting points (http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/static/documents/Research/WSR_Sept2012.pdf) are classed as 'exceptionally low', one 'notably low' and two 'below normal'.  In the south west we have a concern that of the 4 monitoring points two are 'exceptionally high' and one 'notably high'.

Of course if we have a dry winter we could be in trouble again, but this has been trully an unprecidented summer. 

Now with the ground so wet any rainfall will run-off so even normal autumn rainfall could lead to flooding.

I hope this clarifies.

just out of interest does the met office have to comply with freedom of information requests? would love to know how they can spend millions and get results no better than someone predicting weather in the shed at the bottom of the garden

With these abnormal rain patterns I don't think your average folklore forecast would be much good.  Often the inaccuracies are merely that a weather system was slightly off track or moved at a slightly different speed.  If you look at the statistics (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who/accuracy/forecasts) I don't think they are that bad. 

On the positive side I don't think (correct me if I am wrong) there were any floods this summer that came without some sort of warning. 

Of course if you want to go back to 1953 when a lack of coordinated flood and weather forecasting even based on the tide conditions further up the east coast failed to predict the flooding further south.  That cost many lives. 


In short I do not think either of these criticisms are justified by the facts. 

[6 OF 2 redundant adjunct of unimatrix 01]

you cant use the met offices own records to gauge accuracy !

[ellendune]

you cant use the met offices own records to gauge accuracy !

Why not?

[Chris from Nailsea]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

Flood warnings after snowfall in west of England

Flood warnings have been issued after three inches of snow fell across parts of the West Country and southern England, causing disruption to transport.

The snowfall happened early on Sunday and affected parts of Wiltshire, Somerset, North Dorset and Devon.

Fifteen flood warnings have been issued as the snow begins to melt away, with one bridge in danger of collapse.

A BBC weather forecaster said brighter weather was expected on Monday.

Areas including Bath, Frome and Midsomer Norton and Radstock in the Mendips were affected by snow, with up to 6in (15cm) reported in places.

Bournemouth experienced the most rainfall in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom), with 30mm (1.2in) falling in 24 hours. The Dorset town would normally expect to receive 100mm (4in) of rain on average for the whole of November.

Nearly 80 less severe flood alerts have been issued in other areas.

Wiltshire Police said several vehicles became stuck in snow near Bradford-on-Avon.

Bath and North East Somerset (Banes) Council said it had been caught unaware because no snow was forecast.

Steph Clegg from Bruton in Somerset, who was trying to drive to Cardiff on Sunday morning, said: "We set off and there was sleet. When we got to Shepton Mallet it got much heavier. Vans were having to pull over and people were turning around and skidding everywhere. It was like a completely different world."

Several roads in the region have been affected by flooding. The A357 through Templecombe in Somerset has been closed in both directions because of concerns a bridge wall could collapse, Avon and Somerset Police said.

Roads have also been flooded in Malmesbury and Tidworth in Wiltshire.

The Environment Agency issued flood warnings for several rivers in the area, including the Tetbury Avon at Malmesbury and the River Chew near Keynsham.

Football matches were also affected, as FA Cup ties at non-league Braintree Town, Essex and Gloucester City were postponed due to waterlogged pitches.

Earlier, trains between Swindon and Gloucester had to be replaced by buses because of flooding near Kemble, but First Great Western said the line had now been reopened.

Several bus services in the Bath and Wells areas which were cancelled because of snow, were now getting back to normal a spokesman for First Bristol said.

Light snow was also reported in parts of Gloucestershire and on the hilltops of Dartmoor above Okehampton in Devon.

BBC weather forecaster Matt Taylor said heavy rain across much of southern, central and eastern England had "turned to snow on the western flank as it engaged cold air".

[bobm]

Told my aged, but slightly hard of hearing, mother on the phone today "There's been three inches of snow in Bath"

"Oh dear love", she replies "you had better get the roof fixed before the worst of the winter comes!"

 

[Chris from Nailsea]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

Environment Agency issues flood warnings for the west

Flood warnings have been issued for the west and south west of England as heavy rain approaches the area.

Parts of Somerset, Wiltshire, Dorset, Gloucestershire and Devon are at risk due to slow-moving bands of heavy rain falling on already saturated ground.

The Environment Agency currently has four flood warnings in the south west, for areas on the rivers Axe, Dart and Char.

Across England there were 27 less serious flood alerts in place.

"Teams have been mobilised to check on flood defences, clear river blockages and monitor water levels," an agency spokesman said. "We are looking at 15 to 30mm (0.6 to 1.2 inches) quite widely across that area and up to 40mm (1.6 inches) in the worst-hit areas. There's pretty saturated ground following the rain around today, so there's the possibility of seeing some localised flooding."

The Met Office said it had heavy rain warnings out for south west England and south east Wales, as well as western Scotland, over the next few days.

More than 100 residents were evacuated from their homes and transport links were cut off after persistent heavy rain caused flooding in parts of Scotland on Monday.

[Phil]

What confuses me rather about the Met Office is how come they are unable so reluctant to issue a statement on what the weather might have in store for us in a few days time, let alone a week or a month hence; and yet seem utterly confident in accurately predicting the effect of man-made emissions on the global climate in ten or twenty years from now. Either they do have some idea of what the future holds or they don't - they can't have it both ways!

[ellendune]

What confuses me rather about the Met Office is how come they are unable so reluctant to issue a statement on what the weather might have in store for us in a few days time, let alone a week or a month hence; and yet seem utterly confident in accurately predicting the effect of man-made emissions on the global climate in ten or twenty years from now. Either they do have some idea of what the future holds or they don't - they can't have it both ways!

1) Small changes in the direction or speed of weather fronts make it very difficult to predict more than a few days ahead with the accurcy that affects people.  A storm tracks a few miles north of where it had been expected doesn't sound much of an error. But if you live in the few mile band it is the difference between wet weather and dry weather so you see it as totally wrong.  The Met Office do however do 30 day forecasts for the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) in general terms (see the bbc weather website). 

2) You confuse climate with weather and few predictions are for a short a time as 10 to 20 years.  Climate change predictions come with different bands of certainty.  What the climate forecasters do though is look at the range of likely bands for the answer.  Global average temperature predictions - they are lookign at a range, but that will depend on what we do to control greeenhouse gas emisions.  However even within the range of predictions we expect problems.  Predicting the locoal effects is more difficult. However as an observation, every time the models improve the predictions seem to get less palitable.  Of course we cannot say that Sandy was caused by global warming, however the predictions say these events are likely to be getting more likely.  If we consider at the consequences if the predictions are right - This summer the harvest was bad in many palces because of the poor weather.  If this happens more frequently and some places become deserts (e.g. drought in many parts of the US) we could be looking at mass starvation on a scale not seen before.  If the predictions are wrong it will cost the world economy losts of money.  How much do you value money?

[Chris from Nailsea]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

Heavy rain causes flood problems in West

Heavy rain has caused flooding and travel problems around the west of England.

A "torrent" of water has left Portbury village centre, near Bristol, under about six inches of water, according to BBC reporter Nigel Dando.

And a flood warning has been issued for Winford Brook at Chew Magna and from Chew Stoke to Keynsham.

Rail services connecting Somerset and Devon have also been affected with flooding at Tiverton Parkway.

Mr Dando said people from Portbury were trying to save the village hall from flood water. "It's gathering outside Portbury village hall and we've got volunteers who are fighting a battle to stop water getting into the hall," he said. "They've put boards up outside the hall to try and stop water getting in."

In Wiltshire, flood alerts are in place for the River Biss between Westbury and Trowbridge and the River Avon between Melksham and Bradford-on-Avon.

A flood alert is also in place for the Upper River Avon between Malmesbury and Chippenham.

In Somerset, flooding is causing problems on the A39 between Minehead and Bridgwater and the A37 at Lydford Cross.

And police in Gloucestershire are warning drivers to "exercise caution when driving" as numerous roads in the county are flooded or have surface water.

[grahame]

From JourneyCheck

Owing to flooding between Plymouth and Westbury trains have to run at reduced speed on all lines. Train services running through these stations may be delayed by up to 60 mins or diverted at short notice. An estimate for the resumption of normal services will be provided as soon as the problem has been fully assessed.

Due to flooding between Plymouth to Totnes, Exeter St Davids to Taunton & Taunton to Westbury. First Great Western Train services are subject to delays of up to 60 minutes.

South West Trains services are conveying passengers via any reasonable route until further notice. Arrangements have been made for First Great Western rail tickets to be accepted for these journeys.

Road Transport is being resourced at Taunton to support customers.

Message Received :21/11/2012 08:29

"... are conveying passengers via any reasonable route until further notice ..." In Utopia, all public transport providers always convey passengers via any reasonable route ...

[Chris from Nailsea]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

Sarah Jackson, the Met Office's chief adviser to the government, said: "We are heading into the winter period which is traditionally the wetter period of the year in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom)."

Now, I don't want to seem churlish, but I am rather concerned at the quality of such 'expert' opinion ... 

This year has broken all the rules of hydrological forecasting. 

On the contrary: I can now inform the government that their chief adviser was in fact spot on - it's absolutely belting down with rain here in Nailsea as I write! 

[TonyK]

In Bristol, it is wetter than a haddock's breakfast. I have not seen the Avon at Crews Hole as high as it is. I drove to Shire and back yesterday, and it looked as if the tide was in all day long. I shall always live on a hill henceforth.

As ellendunne says, predicting the weather for more than a few days is fraught with difficulty. If you tracked back through all the data for the last two weeks, even with hindsight I doubt you would find any hint as to today's weather. There are too many variables, and a small change in any one can make a big difference. I have seen it rain at the end of a street, but not where I was standing.

I take more notice of weather than many. The Met Office aviation forecasts are updated at 6 hourly intervals. They are usually pretty good, but I have known them be well out on a few occasions. I took off from Filton one sunny afternoon, for Kemble, having meticulously worked out my heading using the forecast "winds aloft" data provided. Within 5 miles, I realised that I was more than 2 miles north of where I should have been, showing that either the wind speed or the direction was way out. The butterfly in the Pacific must have been flapping its wings wrongly a week beforehand.

The Coreolis effect has only been understood in Meteorology for a century or so. The practical effects of El Nino and La Nina were described less than 50 years back, and have been developed since. Modern methods of predicting weather only became available when we finally had both satellites and super computers. There will be new discoveries, but I bet we still will never know what is coming next.

If you know someone who flies light aircraft (I don't now) ask him / her to take you up on a day when there are isolated showers forecast. The sight of a rainbow from above is spectacular - they are doughnut shaped, so there is no crock of gold.

Don't bad-mouth the Met Office, though. They are right more than they are wrong, and can't be blamed for all the wrong answers.

Consider also that many of Shakespeare's sonnets were influenced by weather. "Shall I compare thee to a summer's day?", "Full many a glorious morning have I seen", "Why didst thou promise such a beauteous day / And have me travel forth without my cloak?" If we were one of the countries where the sun rises at 6.22, and then it rains from 16.22 to 18.03, we would lose much of what we talk about.

[The Tall Controller]

Rain hitting hard in Cornwall at the moment. Road in front of my house was 1ft deep in water but has since drained away. Hope everyone else in the duchy is ok