FirstGroup win InterCity West Coast Franchise

[whole diary]

[Bob_Blakey]

If I had ever been of a mind to support Sir Richard's calls for a review of the deal, his interview on this mornings BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) R4 Today programme would probably have changed my opinion.

He stated that First Group are "generally accepted as amongst the worst" rail franchise operators, said that "Cross Country are losing money", and claimed that as part of their ICWC^▸ (InterCity West Coast) bid First Group provided revenue figures which required them to "sell more seats than exist". The aim of his campaign is "to get some sense into the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about)".

It came across as very much a 'toys-out-of-the-pram' episode from a bad loser and I was very surprised that the claims all went unchallenged.   

[grahame]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

The West Coast Mainline route serves 31 million passengers travelling between London, the West Midlands, the North West, North Wales and the central belt of Scotland.

However, the actual statistic refers to 'Passenger Journeys'. The distinction is important: since almost every passenger makes at least two journeys (and holders of Annual Seasons 200 or more), it follows that arguing that '100,000 people' signing a petition is '0.3% of Virgins[sic] Passenger numbers' is faintly ridiculous. It might be arithmetically correct, but it's as statistically meaningless ...

I've been trying to quantify the relationship between passengers and passenger journeys.

Adding up the station entrances and exits from the ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) stats, we get 2295337773; divide that by 2 to get journeys made by train in the year, we get 1147668886 and dividing that by 60000000 (population) we get just over 19.  So each UK^▸ (United Kingdom) resident makes an average of about 20 journeys by train each year.  There are, of course, very rough figures indeed - there are journeys made by non-residents which will skew the figures one way, and there's a sizeable proportion of the population who wouldn't even dream of using a train, so wouldn't dream of signing a petition.

Hmm ... I'm very wary about guessing what proportion of the UK population uses a train in any year, or making any assumptions about evenness of otherwise of distribution of frequency across TOCs^▸ (Train Operating Company), beyond guessing that SWT^▸ (South West Trains) passengers, largely commuters, probably make a lot more journeys per year per passenger than Virgin West Coast passengers, where journeys are typically ver much longer than a commute.  So I'm stopping at that point.   Does anyone have the data available to carry on with my musings?   I would suspect that with the extra factor brought in we could get something very rough indeed, but meaningful, that was an order of magnitude or more above the 0.3% which is in itself a useless intermediate calculation.

[vacman]

But you'll no more get me to sign this petition than a 'Reinstate First Great Western' one in December when it's announced they've lost to National Express. 

So obviously you will know the result before the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) have made the decision then.


Edit note: Quote marks fixed. CfN.

[TonyK]

It could be that they weren't challenged because that, being true, they could have proved embarrassing to the challenger.
It could be that no matter who runs the franchise, they will do no better or worse a job than anyone else, because they are told what services they can run, what rolling stock they can run them with, what they can charge, and, above all, how much they have to pay the government for the privilege, to recoup the investment in the infrastructure that the said government decided, for political reasons, to make.
It could be that there is no real competition on Britain's railways because there is really no alternative to any of the intercity franchise services. You have your snout in the trough, or not, as opposed to having your snout in the same trough, but eating better than your fellow hogs.
It could be that no-one knows (or cares) enough to give a toss.
It could be that the bearded one didn't get his oats the night before the interview, but I doubt it.
It could be that my Auntie has bollocks, in which case she would be my Uncle.

[Chris from Nailsea]

But you'll no more get me to sign this petition than a 'Reinstate First Great Western' one in December when it's announced they've lost to National Express. 

So obviously you will know the result before the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) have made the decision then.

Hmm. The Secretary of State's consent to the Great Western franchise award is pencilled in for "Feb/Mar 2013", according to the Invitation to Tender document.

[ellendune]

If I had ever been of a mind to support Sir Richard's calls for a review of the deal, his interview on this mornings BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) R4 Today programme would probably have changed my opinion.

He stated that First Group are "generally accepted as amongst the worst" rail franchise operators, said that "Cross Country are losing money", and claimed that as part of their ICWC^▸ (InterCity West Coast) bid First Group provided revenue figures which required them to "sell more seats than exist". The aim of his campaign is "to get some sense into the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about)".

It came across as very much a 'toys-out-of-the-pram' episode from a bad loser and I was very surprised that the claims all went unchallenged.   

I was so appalled by this latest smear that I wrote to my MP^▸ (Member of Parliament). It seems like blatent misuse of his celebrity status.

While First have had their bad times, so have Virgin if you look back.  Case of the pot calling the kettle black.  

If I were looking for nominees for the worsed TOC^▸ (Train Operating Company) First would not be the first name that came to mind.  

[TerminalJunkie]

Does anyone have the data available to carry on with my musings?   I would suspect that with the extra factor brought in we could get something very rough indeed, but meaningful, that was an order of magnitude or more above the 0.3% which is in itself a useless intermediate calculation.

I can only offer http://assets.dft.gov.uk/statistics/series/rail/110805_Rail_Factsheet.pdf, which quotes an Opinions Survey (Chart 5) from 2009 which said that 55% had used Rail in the previous 12 months.

[JayMac]

But you'll no more get me to sign this petition than a 'Reinstate First Great Western' one in December when it's announced they've lost to National Express. 

So obviously you will know the result before the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) have made the decision then.

Oops. My apologies. Using the original date, forgetting about the slide into 2013 following delays in the process.

[grahame]

Does anyone have the data available to carry on with my musings?   I would suspect that with the extra factor brought in we could get something very rough indeed, but meaningful, that was an order of magnitude or more above the 0.3% which is in itself a useless intermediate calculation.

I can only offer http://assets.dft.gov.uk/statistics/series/rail/110805_Rail_Factsheet.pdf, which quotes an Opinions Survey (Chart 5) from 2009 which said that 55% had used Rail in the previous 12 months.

So ... adding in that extra figure, each person who uses the train makes an average of around 35 journeys per year, and we're looking at a signature rate based on a more sensible technique (but really rough figures and still with some horrid approximations and assumptions) or around 10% of the customer base, which is quite impressive.  A caution on the roughness - the figure could easily be a factor of 2 out, in other words I really should be saying "it's likely that somewhere between 5% and 20% of Virgin West Coast's customers have signed".

The reallity of the case? I suspect it depends on what the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) want out of the next franchise, in financial, risk, and social terms as to which bid won, and I suspect that the 4 GW^▸ (Great Western) bidders will be studying the implication of the decision carefully.

[JayMac]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page):

West Coast Main Line deal will go ahead, Greening says

Transport Secretary Justine Greening has told the BBC there will not be a delay in signing a new West Coast Main Line contract with FirstGroup.

Mrs Greening said the government would "push on" with the 13-year contract, which was a "good deal for taxpayers".

There has been pressure from Virgin Rail, which currently runs the line, and from Labour, to delay the decision until Parliament returns.

The chairwoman of the Transport Select Committee has also called for a delay.

The contract signing could happen on Wednesday.

FirstGroup has said it would bring in key improvements for passengers, but critics fear it would not be able to afford the ^5.5bn it was paying for the franchise.

Virgin's Sir Richard Branson had offered to run the service "for free" while a review was carried out.

But Mrs Greening told BBC Breakfast that all bidders had "bought into" the "fair and well-established process". She claimed that if Virgin had won the bid it would have "been perfectly happy with the process".
Service improvements

Aberdeen-based FirstGroup already operates a number of rail routes, including Great Western and ScotRail.

The company, under the name First West Coast Limited, will take over the franchise from 9 December and is due to to operate the service until 2026.

The West Coast Main Line route serves 31 million passengers travelling between London, the West Midlands, the North West, North Wales and the central belt of Scotland.

Virgin has run the franchise since 1997, during which time passenger numbers doubled.

FirstGroup has promised to introduce better wi-fi and food, more frequent trains and more seats, and to cut standard fares by 15%.

The firm said it would introduce 11 new 125mph six-car electric trains on the Birmingham to Glasgow route and provide more direct services between destinations.

Petition

More than 100,000 people have signed an online petition calling for the decision to be reconsidered.

Labour's Maria Eagle, the shadow transport secretary, has urged the government to put the contract on hold until MPs^▸ (Member of Parliament) return from summer recess and have a chance to consider the deal.

And Labour's Louise Ellman, who chairs the House of Commons transport committee, has written to Ms Greening asking her to delay signing the contract.

On Sunday, Sir Richard said that if reviewing the decision meant the December deadline had to be postponed, his company and Stagecoach would be willing to continue operating the railway lines while donating any profits to charity.

Sir Richard told the BBC that he wanted a proper examination of the facts.

"We've asked 40 questions - not one of them have been answered. What we want is transparency," he said.

[Jason]

From the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19402133)

Virgin Trains in West Coast Main Line court action
Breaking news

Virgin Trains has said it has started court proceedings over the government's decision to award a new franchise to transport company FirstGroup.

Virgin had run the franchise since 1997, but lost to FirstGroup, prompting it to demand a review of the process.

Labour had also urged the government to delay the signing of the contract so that MPs^▸ (Member of Parliament) could examine it.

But earlier Transport Secretary Justine Greening said there would be no delay in signing the FirstGroup deal.

[Andrew1939 from West Oxon]

Well, if the matter goes to court and the Dft does not sign off to First until a court case is decided, it will probably mean a new franchise will not start for another year or even longer. Virgin will have substantially legal costs to meet but if they hold onto the current franchise in the mean time, their additional profits may exceed the legal costs.

[Electric train]

Well, if the matter goes to court and the Dft does not sign off to First until a court case is decided, it will probably mean a new franchise will not start for another year or even longer. Virgin will have substantially legal costs to meet but if they hold onto the current franchise in the mean time, their additional profits may exceed the legal costs.

This will be in Court within a week or two if not days, one thing for certain it is going to be expensive for you and me ........ Barristers and Court time don't come cheap and the tax payer will have to foot the bill for the Governments legal team

[Andy W]

This will be in Court within a week or two if not days, one thing for certain it is going to be expensive for you and me ........ Barristers and Court time don't come cheap and the tax payer will have to foot the bill for the Governments legal team

Only if the Government lose - and any costs will pale into insignificance against the ^825 million that First have avoided paying the taxpayer for the Great Western franchise.

Edited to correct my crap spelling

[ellendune]

Well at least Mr Branson's lawyers will now get him to stop his media campaign.  Celebrity support does not work as well in a court of law.

IS he going to run it for free during the delay resulting from the case?