Will HS2 get axed?

[whole diary]

[Btline]

Personally, I think it will go ahead.

[ellendune]

If it is axed then the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) will become so overloaded express services will have to be slowed so that all trains proceed at the same speed and stops at medium sized stations (e.g. MK^▸ (Milton Keynes), Tamworth, Litchfield and Rugby) will be reduced further to maximise.  Then these people who thought they would not benefit from the line will realise their mistake.

If, as seems likely, oil prices continue to rise then the economy will be strangled because goods are unable to transfer to rail (that should have been freed from oil and gas prices by then except for the same group on Nimbys opposition to wind and nuclear power).

At least DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) seem to be able to look ahead even if the Treasury cannot see beyond the next election. 

   

[JayMac]

I've noted elsewhere on this forum just how quiet the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) and HMG seem to have been recently on HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)). They've been busy with various announcements regarding electrification, IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.), Crossrail, NR^» (Network Rail - home page)'s Control Period 5, franchise tenders for GW^▸ (Great Western), ICEC, ICWC^▸ (InterCity West Coast), Thameslink and so on.

All the announced spending is welcome, but I fear that HS2 may well be seen as a capital expenditure that the Govt. will decide cannot be afforded in the current climate, whatever the cost/benefit projections may suggest. HMG seem to be on a path at the moment that is looking to get best value out of the existing rail network, rather than committing to building a new, very expensive, line.

I hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear that HS2 will be kicked into the long grass with the excuse that the country can't afford it at the moment.

Should HS2 not happen then I hope that both the East Coast and West Coast routes can be upgraded to allow 140mph or more running. Existing and future rolling stock will be capable of those speeds - it's only P-way and signalling that prevents it at the moment. Notwithstanding the Railtrack/NR/Virgin fiasco over 'West Coast Route Modernisation', upgrading the existing infrastructure will be cheaper than building a new line.

That said, the mixed traffic nature of both East and West Coast routes would need to be addressed.

[ellendune]

The way the economy is going what we will need is big infrastructure projects to get it going again.

[broadgage]

I dont think that it will be officialy axed, but neither do I think that it will happen anytime soon.
Best to call for a few more reviews and consultations in order to put it off for bit.

Proceeding OR cancelling would annoy too many people, more reviews and consultations gives hope for both sides.

[Andrew1939 from West Oxon]

The current announcements relate to rail investment over the next 5 years or so. HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) has always been planned as a longer term project with only planned and intial works over this period. With all government departments facing staffing cutbacks I suspect the civil servants at the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) are struggling to keep up with the current workloads and HS^▸ (High Speed (short for HSS^▸ (High Speed Services) High Speed Services)) is now on the back-burner.

[eightf48544]

Could we have a vote Delayed please, as the indicators at Padd had up this pm. You could even have heavily delayed, moderaely delayed or just delayed

[bobm]

I sometimes think when "delayed" shows "lost" might be a better description - usually the platform staff are at that point struggling to find out where the said train is!   

[Btline]

Delayed means not axed!

Unfortunately, I can't alter the poll.

[JayMac]

Moderator Note:

At the request of the OP^▸ (Original Poster / topic starter), the poll has been edited to include a 'delayed' option and also the opportunity to change your choice if you've already voted.

bignosemac.

[onthecushions]

The lobbies in favour include the consultants, contractors etc who stand to gain, plus the regional lobbies (chambers of trade, local authorities, politicians, etc) who want the regional growth and Network Rail because its sums say do it. Against are a number of powerful lobbies across the Counties affected - these are important to the Govt majority and the Tories can't really afford a split with HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s)) being carried by Lab-Dems, plus the 30+ Bn borrowing needed.

The "Electric Spine" adds another uncertainty. If it proves to draw off a lot of freight from the South end of the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) then it may free up enough paths to allow delay or even cancellation. Nuneaton is even further North than Rugby, HS2's first target.

On the other hand, the (welcome) surrender to the Welsh assembly over Swansea electrification may point to Govt conceding that a HS^▸ (High Speed (short for HSS^▸ (High Speed Services) High Speed Services)) route to Scotland (as well as the Regions) is also needed to help save the Union.

Too close to call, for me.


OTC

[paul7575]

The "Electric Spine" adds another uncertainty. If it proves to draw off a lot of freight from the South end of the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) then it may free up enough paths to allow delay or even cancellation. Nuneaton is even further North than Rugby, HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s))'s first target.

Depends how you define the 'south end of the WCML'.  AFAICS^▸ (As Far As I Can See) one of the purposes of the electrified 'East West Rail' element of the spine is to avoid conflicts at Nuneaton and Coventry - and the only way that works is by putting MORE freight on the WCML slow lines between Bletchley and Nuneaton.  One of the plus points for it is also to allow freight from Southampton to access DIRFT directly via Bletchley and Northampton.

If you are thinking of the WCML between London and Bletchley, I don't see the electric spine having a significant effect on it. 

Paul

[Electric train]

The "Electric Spine" adds another uncertainty. If it proves to draw off a lot of freight from the South end of the WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) then it may free up enough paths to allow delay or even cancellation. Nuneaton is even further North than Rugby, HS2^▸ (The next High Speed line(s))'s first target.

The 25kV electrification from Southampton to Coventry will not take any freight off of the WCML I am not aware of any Southampton fright that goes via London.

The WCML is heading to wards capacity there is little more that can be done that will not impact on the existing services a WCML upgrade akin to what was done in 2000 - 2009 at ^9B and lots of disruption just will not be accepted.

Simply HS2 is not just needed it is essential for the National economy as a whole, we should adopt the French railway planing strategy draw a straight line on a map and build a railway where the line is drawn

[eightf48544]

You can draw a straight line for a Motorway (although in practice a modern motorway has no straight sections) and knock down as many houses and considerably blight many more with the constant rumble. Try doing that for a railway line and the Nimby's will be out in force. Despite the greater impact of the motorway. Try mooring at Lapworth where the Grand Union, the Railway and the M40 run close together and the noise of the trains is insignificant compared with the constant rumble of the M40.


They even tried to start say no to HST2 in Marlow saying it will blight the area despite being across well over the M40 which is a far greater eyesore.

Isn't interesting that everyone thought the Blechley Flyover was a white elephant from the day it was built and now it's going to be part of a freight spine. Maybe the BR^▸ (British Rail(ways)) planners weren't as silly as we thought and understood geography better than their successors.  I always thought Channel Tunnel Tonbridge Redhill Reading Oxford WCML^▸ (West Coast Main Line) or MML^» (Midland Main Line. - about) would be a good freight route for international traffic.  The only snag is a lack of a flyover at Redhill to save reversal. Also somebody is already using the flyunder at Reading.

Which of course was  the main reason for the flyover at Blechley was to route freight round London, I wonder whether they had in mind that there may be a Channel Tunnel one day so the route could become even more important. The thing they failed to see was the abysmal lack of freight through the Chunnel.

[Electric train]

Which of course was  the main reason for the flyover at Blechley was to route freight round London, I wonder whether they had in mind that there may be a Channel Tunnel one day so the route could become even more important. The thing they failed to see was the abysmal lack of freight through the Chunnel.

There are several reason for the lack of rail only freight through the Chunnel, in part we have very effective deep sea container ports in the UK^▸ (United Kingdom) and in the Low Countries modern container handling means container ships have multi drops around the world.  There is also quite a lot of road freight that travels on the shuttle, one of the reasons why road haulers like to use the ferries it serves as one of the rest periods for drivers, one reason why Newhaven is very popular plus the truck parking fees are lower than Dover.

Did the 1950's modernisation plan envisage the Tunnel when it built the Blechley flyover I doubt it, it faces the wrong way it was part of the short sighted vision to maintain "pick up goods" along with the hump shunt yards. 

What should have been kept using 20/20 hindsight was the Didcot - Southampton line what a superb fright route that would be today