M4 closed in London due to CRACKS on viaduct!

[whole diary]

[Btline]

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-18751083

Let's hope FGW^▸ (First Great Western) seize the initiative and put extra carriages on.

[JayMac]

And, pray tell, where will FGW^▸ (First Great Western) magic up these 'extra carriages' from? 

I don't think FGW has a Fairy Godmother, like Cinderella, who can turn pumpkins into carriages.

Besides which the rolling stock fleets that serve Heathrow aren't FGW's responsibility. That responsibility lies with BAA (Heathrow Express) and BAA/First Group (Heathrow Connect). I'm fairly sure there's no extra carriages at their disposal either. Maybe a spare unit or two, but then what about paths, staff etc?

People driving to Heathrow are likely to continue to drive. The M4 isn't the only way by road to get there.

[ChrisB]

And it's ONE crack that's caused this closure. 'Exaggerate' seems to be your middle name, BTLine :-)

[ellendune]

The M4 is only closed between Heathrow and Central London.

So far as Heathrow is concerned most people driving will either be coming from the West or from the M25 the T5 entrance is from the M25 anyway.  People coming from Central London can probably work out other routes. 

The impact will come on those who choose to drive into London.  The effect will be the same as when the Hammersmith Flyover was shut.

[Btline]

Come on BNM, I'm sure you know what I mean. Run 6 car turbo instead of 3 where possible this weekend. Get all the HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) out.
A lot of motorists who drive into London on the M4 will be tempted to use the train today. Why focus on Heathrow? People driving from Worcester can use the M4.

When the Hammersmith Flyover was shut (same route), FGW^▸ (First Great Western) noticed a significant passenger increase.

Also - the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) state "cracks", so don't blame me for the headline.

[ChrisB]

That flyover was shut for *weeks*, not 5 days (max) - very different. It would also take FGW^▸ (First Great Western) several days to gear this up, by which time it would be open again in a couple. So just not worth it.

Read that BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) again. It refers to *one* newly discvovered crack "in a sensitive area" that caused the immediate closure.

[Electric train]

Come on BNM, I'm sure you know what I mean. Run 6 car turbo instead of 3 where possible this weekend. Get all the HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) out.
A lot of motorists who drive into London on the M4 will be tempted to use the train today. Why focus on Heathrow? People driving from Worcester can use the M4.

When the Hammersmith Flyover was shut (same route), FGW^▸ (First Great Western) noticed a significant passenger increase.

Also - the BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) state "cracks", so don't blame me for the headline.

The Hammersmith Flyover closure also coincided with the peak in road fuel price and was week day closure.  Not sure this weekends closures will have that much effect because drivers will use the M40/A40 or the M3 instead,

If I drive into London from home (Maidenhead) my preference is the M40 ( I join it at J3) because it is quicker and slicker route into the West End

[Btline]

If all the M4 traffic switches to other routes, it will still cause congestion on those routes as well as the M25. The route will be shut on weekdays.

As such, I think it would be reasonable to expect higher passenger numbers.

PS: The BBC^» (British Broadcasting Corporation - home page) website headline states cracks as of 7.17pm. But that's not the issue I was intending to discuss when I started this thread.

[ChrisB]

Read the article....

[JayMac]

Come on BNM, I'm sure you know what I mean. Run 6 car turbo instead of 3 where possible this weekend. Get all the HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) out.
A lot of motorists who drive into London on the M4 will be tempted to use the train today. Why focus on Heathrow? People driving from Worcester can use the M4.

No. You 'come on' Btline. 

Where are these six car turbos amd HSTs going to dump your supposed extra passengers Btline? The nearest FGW^▸ (First Great Western) served stations to Heathrow are Hayes and Harlington and West Drayton.

Will someone from Central London or the south-east, who is planning to drive to Heathrow, really want to make a tube/bus/taxi journey to Paddington, a FGW train journey to Hayes & Harlington/West Drayton, then a bus/taxi journey to Heathrow, instead of finding an alternative route by road?

Even in the unlikely event that someone does dump the car in favour of public transport because of the closure of the M4 to Heathrow they will almost certainly be using Heathrow Express or Heathrow Connect and not FGW from Paddington.

Any higher passenger numbers should easily be absorbed by HeX and HeC.

[Southern Stag]

Heathrow Express could run double sets of 332s rather than single sets at the weekends, normally they are only double sets Mondays-Fridays, if they need extra capacity.

[Btline]

BNM, you seem to think the M4 links Heathrow to London only. What about longer distance traffic from Reading, Newbury, Swindon, Bath, Bristol?

That is what I'm talking about! People will be encouraged to switch to rail. Yes, there are alternate routes, but these will be extra busy.

Chris B - I'm talking about the headline, which is why I named the thread thus.

[JayMac]

BNM, you seem to think the M4 links Heathrow to London only. What about longer distance traffic from Reading, Newbury, Swindon, Bath, Bristol?

That is what I'm talking about! People will be encouraged to switch to rail. Yes, there are alternate routes, but these will be extra busy.

Are you on a wind up? The M4 is only closed between J1-J3.

Folk intending to drive to Heathrow from the west can still use the M4 all the way to the airport. People who intend to drive will still drive, even the vast majority who would normally use the M4 between J1<->J3. A few wishing to get to and from London from the West/South Wales may consider swapping to rail, but I doubt that'll warrant strengthened trains. Besides, there is nothing spare in the FGW^▸ (First Great Western) fleet; all that can be strengthened has been/is being strengthened to cater for existing capacity issues. There are also many alternatives to the M4 to get to London by road from the west. The M4 isn't the be all and end all.

There is NO passenger bonanza for FGW because of this road closure and it would be sheer folly of them to attempt to provide strengthened services to and from London. They'd be robbing Peter to pay Paul anyway with their limited rolling stock. Perhaps you'd like to see a few Cotswold Line HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) turbostituted to move this non existent mass of passengers from the west?

There may also be a small increase in usage of HeX and HeC for folk wishing to get to the airport from London, but that's it.

[EBrown]

What about longer distance traffic from Reading, Newbury, Swindon, Bath, Bristol?

I challenge you to find multiple people who regularly travel from places like Bath and Bristol to London by car who are switching to the train due the the 'cracks'. There must be enough people to warrant this increase in demand though...

Oh, that's right, there won't be any.

[Gordon the Blue Engine]

Great Western once had a mission statement "to empty the M4".  So, as BTline says in his own way, the M4 J1-J3 closure is an opportunity for FGW^▸ (First Great Western) to publicise (as they did with the Hammersmith Flyover closure) their services into London along with the parking opportunities at Theale (M4 J12) etc. for drivers coming up from the west.

And it doesn't take long to update a website or hang an extra set on to a Turbo (if any are available, no short platforms etc). 

I think BTline deserves to be heard without being rubbished by others.

edited for typos