Intercity Express Programme (IEP) - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[Rhydgaled]

http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/Opinion-New-trains-jeopardise-electrification/story-26217290-detail/story.html?

A call for further electrification to(wards) the South West, and for the HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) to be life extended to 2025 so there's no need to buy an expensive non-electrice fleet in the meantime.

Hear hear. I think though that 2025 is too early to expect enough electrification. The logical thing in my view would be to keep IC125s for now and work towards getting Swindon-Cheltenham, Newbury-Westbury and Bristol-Plymouth (inc. Weston-Super-Mare branch) wired. Then you can get new EMUs^▸ (Electric Multiple Unit) for PAD^» (Paddington (London) - next trains)-Cheltenham/Weston-Super-Mare/Westbury and cascade those bi-modes to the Penzance route (need to make them longer though). That might be possible 2030-2035 maybe, and maybe wires to Penzance in 2045 when the 27.5yr IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) contract ends...

[ChrisB]

wires will never reach PNZ in our lifetime. However old you are now.

[TonyK]

wires will never reach PNZ in our lifetime. However old you are now.

Sadly, I'm inclined to agree. Although there must come a oint when it is cheaper to wire the last bit than keep running diesels.

[Chris from Nailsea]

With advances in technology, they may be running battery powered units over 'the last bit' by then? 

[Surrey 455]

With advances in technology, they may be running battery powered units over 'the last bit' by then? 

Well I'd like to think that there will be no need for wires or third rail, the trains will be powered by solar panels on the roof with battery back up at night. Sadly I don't think that will happen in my lifetime.

[grahame]

With advances in technology, they may be running battery powered units over 'the last bit' by then? 

Well I'd like to think that there will be no need for wires or third rail, the trains will be powered by solar panels on the roof with battery back up at night. Sadly I don't think that will happen in my lifetime.

I'm noting in the tealeaves that the overhead wires + battery for the last bit approach is getting to be far more practical - "it works" and mileage on battery will go up as mileage on overhead goes down.  Not sure about solar panels - but how about swapping over batteries charge by solar, wind, wave power at station stops?

[Chris from Nailsea]

You ought to be able to recharge a fair few batteries using the wave power at Dawlish ... 

[ChrisB]

More details on stock arrivals & Transfers from Railnews

NEW Bombardier Electrostars are included in the plans for the new First Great Western franchise, which will be a boost for jobs in Derby.

The main fleets for long-distance services will be Intercity Expresses and hybrid AT300s, both from Hitachi.

However, Thames Valley electrification will need large numbers of suburban electric multiple units, some of which will be 21 Class 365s cascaded from Great Northern.

Also heading west will be 29 Class 387 four-car sets, which are currently being delivered from Bombardier in Derby to Thameslink on a temporary basis.

In the longer term, all 29 sets will move to First Great Western for Thames Valley services, but a further eight sets have been ordered by Porterbrook specifically for FGW^▸ (First Great Western), Railnews has learned. Most will run as four or eight-car trains, but FGW said there was also potential for a 'very limited' number of 12-car sets.

The additional capacity offered by each four-car Class 387 rather than a three-car diesel Class 165 will help to fulfil First's pledge to offer an additional 8,000 seats in peak hours between Reading and London by 2018.

The plans for AT300s for services west of Bristol have not yet been confirmed, because they depend on a private financing deal and DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) approval, which is due by June.

Diesel class 165s displaced by Thames Valley electrification will stay with FGW for services between Cardiff, Bristol and the south coast. The 158s released from this will be used for local main line services in the far south west. They will be needed when local services between Plymouth and Penzance are increased to half-hourly.

Departing rolling stock will include the Class 142 and 144 Pacers currently in use in the Bristol and Exeter areas, while the Devon and Cornwall branch lines will mainly be worked by two-car Class 150s rather than the single-car Class 153s.

The new First Great Western franchise was announced yesterday, and will start in September.

First Great Western managing director, Mark Hopwood said:  ^For us, this franchise deal is about changing the way people think about rail. The Great Western network is already seeing the biggest investment since Brunel, and this deal has been designed to match that investment and ambition. It gives passengers newer trains, faster, more frequent services and importantly, given the growth this franchise has seen in recent years, more seats ^ three million extra seats a year by December 2018.

^We^ve worked with the Department for Transport to make sure passengers get every bit of benefit from the mainline electrification programme, while making sure no area misses out. I believe that the team at First Great Western will deliver for customers and the thriving communities and economies they serve, as well as the taxpayer.^

[TaplowGreen]

Just one question on this - to what extent will the extra 8,000 peak seats promised by 2018 between Reading and London be effectively wiped out by projected passenger numbers growth between now and then?

[ChrisB]

Not sure of that prediction, but remember even more Crossrail capacitu comes online soon after that

[JayMac]

Departing rolling stock will include the Class 142 and 144 Pacers currently in use in the Bristol and Exeter areas

Split the difference/take the arithmetic mean and then you'd get the right class number. FGW^▸ (First Great Western) only has Class 143s.

Oh and no Pacer is in use in the Bristol area. They are exclusively to be found in Devon.

Pretty poor for a specialist rail news website.

[ChrisB]

They acknowledge the errors in the comment section at the base of that URL

[Rhydgaled]

Departing rolling stock will include the Class 142 and 144 Pacers currently in use in the Bristol and Exeter areas

Split the difference/take the arithmetic mean and then you'd get the right class number. FGW^▸ (First Great Western) only has Class 143s.

Oh and no Pacer is in use in the Bristol area. They are exclusively to be found in Devon.

Pretty poor for a specialist rail news website.

They DID^» (Didcot Parkway - next trains) have 142s not all that long ago though, and didn't they run Pacers in the Bristol area back then? Just an out-of-date quote except for the fact they put 144 instead of 143, which may have been a typing error.

Just one question on this - to what extent will the extra 8,000 peak seats promised by 2018 between Reading and London be effectively wiped out by projected passenger numbers growth between now and then?

Not sure of that prediction, but remember even more Crossrail capacitu comes online soon after that

Neither is any help west of Reading, and surely the patronage growth isn't confined to the Reading-London section. Yet the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) (and now it seems First too) seem happy to reduce capacity per train across much of the GW^▸ (Great Western) Intercity network while the vast majority of the frequency enhancements which will hopefully somewhat compensate for the shorter trains are limited to specific sections of the network.

Even if you think that I've got it wrong and current IC125s (except on Bristol services) don't often load to more than 300 passengers west of Reading then, assuming growth continues, the 5-car IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) trains will get full pretty quickly and lengthening them will be impossible without creating redundant driving vehicles.

[JayMac]

They acknowledge the errors in the comment section at the base of that URL

Ah, didn't scroll down to look for clarifications and corrections. 

They DID^» (Didcot Parkway - next trains) have 142s not all that long ago though, and didn't they run Pacers in the Bristol area back then?

4^ years ago the 142s went. 3 years since a 143 has been in the Bristol area. So a fair time ago.

[grahame]

Just one question on this - to what extent will the extra 8,000 peak seats promised by 2018 between Reading and London be effectively wiped out by projected passenger numbers growth between now and then?

Looking at Paddington passenger numbers as a whole - they rose from 32200316 to 35093628 in the last 3 years (ORR^» (Office of Rail and Road formerly Office of Rail Regulation - about) Station use figures).   Divide those by 363 days (no trains on Christmas day or Boxing day) ...

>>> (35093628 - 32200316) / 363
7970
>>>

So there will be 30 seats of the 8,000 left over if current growth trends continue.


Statistically, my logic leaks like a sieve!