Intercity Express Programme (IEP) - ongoing discussion

[whole diary]

[JayMac]

Yes the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.)'s have more seats in each carriage compared to a hst although not by much.

Understandable seeing as the IEP carriages are 3m longer than a Mk3.

[paul7575]

Yes the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.)'s have more seats in each carriage compared to a hst although not by much.

Anyway we should have a better understanding of how the IEP's will be like when the mock up is completed.

I do hope that they wont be but I can see us having some problems with the IEP's

Typical FGW^▸ (First Great Western) operated HST^▸ (High Speed Train) coach that everyone thinks is wonderful, has 84 mostly airline seats in 23m.   IEP at 88 has 4 more seats in its extra 3m.  I have a theory that seating density won't be the issue for normal passengers, just for those hoping for a 1980s HST layout, which will never appear in new stock again.

By the way, antony215, you appear to have three grocer's apostrophes in your post...

Paul  

[Chris from Nailsea]

By the way, antony215, you appear to have three grocer's apostrophes in your post...

Paul  

I rather think you'll find he's anthony215, Paul. 

[Rhydgaled]

On the major flow (London<->Bristol) that these trains will be running on, there is expected to be a doubling of frequency. Doesn't that mean extra seats in both Standard and First?

Nope, because over half of the new fleet are currently planned to be 5 carriage formations (compared to today's 2+8 IC125s).

New trains, faster journey times, increased frequency. It's all doom and gloom isn't it?  

Given that over half the fleet will be overcrowded 5-car diesel-guzzling trains that are likely to lock Weston-Super-Mare and Cheltenham services (which might otherwise be logical progressions of electrfication in CP6^▸ (Control Period 6 - The five year period between 2019 and 2024)) into diesel traction for another 15 years, yes. It is (almost) all doom and gloom. Ditch the 5-car idea (replacing them with 9-car sets) and change the ratio of bi-modes to electrics to allow extension of GWML^▸ (Great Western Main Line) wiring in CP6 and things might start looking up. Oh, and leave the IC225s alone on the ECML^▸ (East Coast Main Line) (the 270 IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) vehicles ordered to replace them can be used to get avoid 5-car IEPs), rather than scrapping locos with 10 years life left in them.

[Red Squirrel]

By the way, antony215, you appear to have three grocer's apostrophes in your post...

Paul  

I rather think you'll find he's anthony215, Paul. 

...and they aren't Grocer's Apostrophes either - it's only recently that style guides have started to frown upon using apostrophes when pluralising initialisms (see Grammar Girl's piece), and the OED^▸ (Oxford English Dictionary) merely says that you don't need to use an apostrophe for this - it doesn't say you shouldn't.

[JayMac]

Nope, because over half of the new fleet are currently planned to be 5 carriage formations (compared to today's 2+8 IC125s).

Working to the current IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) information (draft weekday timetable, draft seating capacity) in the public domain, Bristol TM^‡(resolve)-Paddington may have:

6x double 5 car services: 3780 seats
14x 5 car services: 4410 seats
40x 9 car services: 25080 seats
Total: 33270 seats

Looking at current Bristol TM-Paddington HST^▸ (High Speed Train) provision there are a maximum of 34 weekday services and if we assume they are all operated by 2+8 high density sets with micro buffets, then there are 34x 560 seats.
Total: 19040 seats

Even if those figures aren't wholly accurate come the final shakedown, I think it does highlight that there is likely to be a very large increase in capacity between Bristol and London.

In addition, Weston-Super-Mare get's an hourly off peak 5 car service to London on top of existing and future peak services. Cheltenham gets an hourly 5 car service throughout the day, as does Worcester. Hereford gets a bi-hourly 5 car service. Westbury/Taunton/Exeter get an hourly off peak 5 car service in addition to existing HST services. Some of these additional 5 car services are doubled up in the peaks for all or part of their journey.

[IndustryInsider]

Crikey, well done for sitting down and working those figures out, sir!

Assuming your base figures are correct, I've done the first class seating in the same style.  Is another false assumption put to rest?   

6x double 5 car services: 540 seats
14x 5 car services: 630 seats
40x 9 car services: 4040 seats
Total: 4210

Looking at current Bristol TM^‡(resolve)-Paddington HST^▸ (High Speed Train) provision there are a maximum of 34 weekday services and if we assume they are all operated by 2+8 high density sets with micro buffets, then there are 34x 95 seats.
Total: 3230 seats*

* If we're generous and assume that all those current services are operated by 2+8 low density sets with normal sized buffets then 3230 increases to 3774 seats.  Still well short of 4210 though!

[JayMac]

Just to clarify, my figures were total seating capacity, First and Standard Class.

Deduct II's First Class figures from mine and you have Standard Class capacities.

And just to reiterate, these figures are based on the IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.) layouts as published by the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) in August 2012 and the draft Greater Western IEP timetable spreadsheet as posted in this thread at post #220. This timetable was developed by the DfT for establishing diagrams and rolling stock requirements and is not to be regarded as a public timetable aspiration or proposal. We should have the Service Level Commitment for IEP when the Greater Western franchise is re-tendered in 2016.

[broadgage]

Whilst in theory, a more frequent service should make up for many of the new trains being only 5 car, practice may suggest otherwise.

When (then) Virgin cross country introduced new shorter trains, I remember being re-assured that the new shorter trains would be fine due to the increased frequency.
Some years have now passed, and the cross country services are now run by someone else, but I regulary have to stand on one of the new "fun sized" trains when I probably would have got a seat on an HST^▸ (High Speed Train) or loco hauled train.

I fear a repeat.

[TonyK]

I fear a repeat.

And so do I. I consider, though, that passenger numbers on FGW^▸ (First Great Western)'s patch are more constant than Cross Country's ex Bristol. I may be wrong, but that's my impression. It follows that armed with reasonably accurate figures, the rolling stock for the line should be easy to plan for.

Which is why I fear a repeat. Anyone know if there are options for further trains in the contract with Agility / Hitachi?

[JayMac]

When (then) Virgin cross country introduced new shorter trains, I remember being re-assured that the new shorter trains would be fine due to the increased frequency.
Some years have now passed, and the cross country services are now run by someone else, but I regulary have to stand on one of the new "fun sized" trains when I probably would have got a seat on an HST^▸ (High Speed Train) or loco hauled train.

Ignoring CrossCountry's Cardiff-Nottingham and Birmingham-Stansted services...

At the time of the introduction of the Voyager fleet to Virgin CrossCountry, I don't think anyone predicted the huge rise in passenger numbers that would take to the CrossCountry network following the increase in frequency. With the core XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) routes having a half hourly clockface service since the introduction of Operation Princess, the number of seats per hour actually slightly increased over the previous hourly (and randomly timed) core services.

The old  Virgin XC 2+7 HSTs had around 420 seats and the loco hauled 7 coach mk2 sets had around 310 seats. With an even split between services operated by either HST or loco that would give an average of 365 seats per hour.

Now with a half hourly Voyager service you have at worst 400 seats per hour (2x Class 220) and at best 524 (2x Class 221). The actual figure would be somewhere in between, around 440 seats per hour. I'm saying 440 rather than a median between the capacity of a 220 versus a 221 to take account of CrossCountry having 34 Class 220s and only 23 Class 221s. The few XC HSTs runs per day would probably bump that 440 seats per hour up a bit.

So, more seats on the core XC network since Operation Princess was rolled out, but not enough to cope with current demand. There's a few other things wrong with Voyagers as well.

Who knows what the future holds for the CrossCountry network. There's going to be more than a handful of HST sets available from 2017 onward. Plus with further electrification there may be scope for CrossCountry Class 800s and 801s (IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.)). It would certainly make sense to have a similar fleet to other InterCity operators.

[Network SouthEast]

Who knows what the future holds for the CrossCountry network. There's going to be more than a handful of HST^▸ (High Speed Train) sets available from 2017 onward. Plus with further electrification there may be scope for CrossCountry Class 800s and 801s (IEP^▸ (Intercity Express Program / Project.)). It would certainly make sense to have a similar fleet to other InterCity operators.

Interesting times ahead for XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)). Class 222s will be released by the MML^» (Midland Main Line. - about) electrification, and routes like Bournemouth to Manchester can be all electric. I dare say we'll see more double headed Voyager/Meridians instead of cascaded HSTs on XC routes.

[didcotdean]

At the time of the introduction of the Voyager fleet to Virgin CrossCountry, I don't think anyone predicted the huge rise in passenger numbers that would take to the CrossCountry network following the increase in frequency. With the core XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)) routes having a half hourly clockface service since the introduction of Operation Princess, the number of seats per hour actually slightly increased over the previous hourly (and randomly timed) core services.

Although this is broadly the case there are some significant exceptions. For example the frequency of services to Coventry and Birmingham International from Reading are still hourly as the extra services take the other route.

I recall that Virgin sent a survey to me concerning the services post Operation Princess. Since this had abolished the Cross Country stops at Didcot that had been in place for many years  there was little improvement for me personally in either convenience or journey times. Even now a proportion of trains need to be pathed through the station without stopping.

[eightf48544]

Interesting times ahead for XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)). Class 222s will be released by the MML^» (Midland Main Line. - about) electrification, and routes like Bournemouth to Manchester can be all electric. I dare say we'll see more double headed Voyager/Meridians instead of cascaded HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) on XC routes.

Agree interesting times ahead. Re double Voyagers/Meridians can they work in multiple? Or do they fall victim to non standard coupling and control systems?




Edit note: Quote marks amended, for clarity. CfN.

[Tim]

Interesting times ahead for XC^▸ (Cross Country Trains (franchise)). Class 222s will be released by the MML^» (Midland Main Line. - about) electrification, and routes like Bournemouth to Manchester can be all electric. I dare say we'll see more double headed Voyager/Meridians instead of cascaded HSTs^▸ (High Speed Train) on XC routes.

Agree interesting times ahead. Re double Voyagers/Meridians can they work in multiple? Or do they fall victim to non standard coupling and control systems?

AIUI^▸ (as I understand it) the coupling is compatible but the control systems are not (although that presumably could be fixed if there was an economic case for doing so. )




Edit note: Quote marks amended, for clarity. CfN.