TransWilts - now and in the coming years

[whole diary]

[jtrak]

[This topic has been split off from "Background to the Forum" in the Introductions and Chat section -
http://www.firstgreatwestern.info/coffeeshop/index.php?topic=10011.0
- Graham]

I travelled from East Grinstead to Melksham by rail on December 10 2011, changing mid-afternoon to the TransWilts train at Swindon. The journey took about three and a half hours. I made a similar journey by rail to Melksham on December 24, and left Melksham at 15:21 on December 27 to return to East Grinstead . It was a delight to make these journeys by rail. The trains were clean, the staff were attentive, and all the connections were efficient and on time. As I often travel to Melksham, I started thinking how nice it would be always to travel by rail. However, when I investigated the timetable I realised that I'd been lucky to choose trains that suited my travel plans, because not many trains run through Melksham. I'd like to ask: will more trains daily be using the TransWilts line during 2012?

[grahame]

I travelled from East Grinstead to Melksham by rail on December 10 2011, changing mid-afternoon to the TransWilts train at Swindon. The journey took about three and a half hours. I made a similar journey by rail to Melksham on December 24, and left Melksham at 15:21 on December 27 to return to East Grinstead . It was a delight to make these journeys by rail. The trains were clean, the staff were attentive, and all the connections were efficient and on time. As I often travel to Melksham, I started thinking how nice it would be always to travel by rail. However, when I investigated the timetable I realised that I'd been lucky to choose trains that suited my travel plans, because not many trains run through Melksham. I'd like to ask: will more trains daily be using the TransWilts line during 2012?

Hi, jtrak, and welcome to the forum.

Reliability and cleanliness have hugely improved on the line in the last three or four years - under the previous franchise that finished on 31st March 2006, both were in need of that improvement.   Alas - reliability got worse - a LOT worse over the winter of 2006 / 2007 as the new train operating company struggled to learn about the metrics of (and run) the services it had taken over.

Staff on the line - and indeed virtually all operations staff with FGW^▸ (First Great Western) - are gems.  Really friendly, professional, and they make it a pleasure to travel.  Under the previous franchise, where the TransWilts service was run by Wessex Trains, but Swindon station run by First Great Western, there were some unfortunate situations where incorrect advise was given to passengers (FGW staff not seeming being aware of the Melksham train sitting in the station, and sending people on the First train to change to a First bus at Bath), but those days are long since gone - thank goodness. However, the service we were left with after the last franchise change is, frankly, inapprorpriate in its sparsity and timing.  You were very fortunate that there was a Saturday service running on Tuesday, 17th - thus a 15:21 train.   On a normal Tuesday, you would have had a choice of 07:17, or 19:47, with the 07:17 putting to onto a peak-fare connection at Swindon, and the 19:47 possible connecting into the very last service to East Grinstead!

To answer your question - "Will there be more trains daily using the TransWilts line during 2012" - I doubt it.  We may see an extra round trip again on Sunday mornings in high summer - that was run for most of July and August and resulted in a packed train to Weymouth each time, and correspondingly busy trains in the evening.   There was a prospect of a change a few weeks back - early December 2011 - but our suggestion that 2% of extra carriages provided to First should be used to run something more appropriate didn't win the day, even though it would also have relieved peak overcrowding from Trowbridge to Bath, where people were being denied boarding because the trains were that full.   Our logic went that if they ran another TransWilts service at that time, it would pull the 50 or so people doing a Trowbridge - Bath - Swindon dogleg onto a direct train, making space on that train, cutting journey times for 50 commuters, adding a service with immediate growth potential, and leaving a unit in Swindon from where it could run daytime TransWilts trains.   However, what actually happened was much more "bull at a gate" - a strengthening of the existing train to Bath, so missing the opportunity of those other benefits.

Looking further ahead, I would be somewhat more optimistic for 2013 than 2012 for improved daily services.   We're currently jumping deep into a refranchising exercise in the South West, and the door is open under a consultation for serious suggestions to be put forward.    There are an awful lot of ducks to line up for a suggestion to be taken seriously, but we may get there.   There has certainly been a sea change in support from many quarters since the last franchise was let, and that's all for the good too.

[phile]

If the Trans Wilts service is still 2 trains each direction per day as per document would it be possible to retime a little later on the morning and a little earlier in the evening to provide a more conveniently timed service.

[grahame]

If the Trans Wilts service is still 2 trains each direction per day as per document would it be possible to retime a little later on the morning and a little earlier in the evening to provide a more conveniently timed service.

Bit of background

Under Wessex trains, there was an arrival into Swindon at around 08:30 and a departure at about 17:45 (it varied by a few minutes over the years), and this is within the bounds actually set for the current (First group) franchise.  In our naivety from reading the specification, we assumed that we would be retaining this train and getting one other.   

The initial proposal from First was (as I recall) for a Swindon arrival just after 8, and the return service to run at 18:45, fitting in to the 08:00 to 08:45 arrival and 17:30 to 19:00 return of the SLC2 section of the franchise.  First consulted on the service, and clear inputs were made from the TransWilts corridor for the morning train to be a little later, and the evening one about an hour earlier.    So we were shocked to find in the final timetable that the arrival into Swindon had gone even earlier - i.e. it had been shifted in the exact opposite direction to the inputs that had been made.  We were doubly disappointed that the Department for Transport allowed a change in SLC2 to allow an arrival at Swindon as early as 07:30 ...

Conspiracy theory would suggest that this was an example of deliberate provision of an inappropriately timed service.  However, it turned out to be rather more complex.   Firstly, by running the train early in the morning and at the very tail end of the afternoon peak, the hiring of a train could be saved - the set used on the TransWilts, if very early, can also provide the Golden Valley (Swindon to Gloucester / Cheltenham) commuter run, and this saving was just too tempting not to take up.  The Golden Valley crowd had also complained that their train was too late for their use, and they put a strong case that schoolkids wouldn't be able to get to school, and got their MP^▸ (Member of Parliament) (who held a marginal seat for the government) to press the case, and they / he "won".

Answering your question directly

Yes, it would be possible to run a service that arrives in Swindon at 08:18, and also to run a returning service at 17:35 or at 18:19.  Those paths were all cleared by Network Rail for passenger service operation in February this year.

But

There are serious concerns at simply moving the service a bit, and there are far better alternatives.

a) If you simply move the services, you are going to re-create Golden Valley problems, or leave a unit sitting at Swindon all day doing diddly-squat.
b) Even the current unlikely times have built up a clientelle, and I would hate to see them disenfranchised
c) Would people use the new service, knowing the again-recent (see (b) ) history of service being retimed out of usabiity for people?
d) Very little corridor analysis has recently been done concerning a two-trains-a-day service at the previous times - so we don't know how it would be used.

The better - MUCH better - alternative is to leave the exisiting trains as they are, and to add in the 08:18 arrival and the 17:35 departures ... but not to leave it at that - to make use of the extra rolling stock provided to provide a service to run during the day at least every 2 hours. This was actually suggested by Jacobs in the run up to the 2006 refranchise, in an otherwise very negative report across the South West, but for some reason the suggestion wasn't included in the franchise.

By running two well spaced services to Swindon in the morning, 2 well spaced returns at the end of the day, you give no fewer than four working day opportunities. By running that 18:19 train as well, and an earlier arrival into Swindon at 07:02, you're up to nine working day opportunities.  Not only does this suit many, many more people who travel to Swindon to work, but it also gives all of them the flexibility of being able to start and finish a little earlier of later and to know there's a train they can catch.  And that's made all the more powerfully the case by running service during the day with the extra stock.  Working late is possible, and a line which (paradoxically) links all the major population centres of Wiltshire but is scarcely used becomes a backbone that ties the communities together. I have an inch-thick set of documents making this case. The majority of those documents are professional analyses looking at the case to industry / DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) standards, and it's my belief that they should be implemented at the first timetable change of the new franchise (or before would be nice).

[grahame]

I have been reading a bit over Christmas, and have posted some of my personal throughts on the TransWilts line for the next franchise at:

http://wellho.info/3566

A lot of it's very theoretic stuff, so I've also worked out a sample of what it could mean in terms of services at:

http://wellho.info/3565

Almost all of what's written is pretty well agreed / accepted by many parties, and all the ducks seem to be coming into line.  An optimistic end to 2011 from me!

[ellendune]

Does the pre 2006 service level and usuage provide any further evidence to supoort the case?

[grahame]

Does the pre 2006 service level and usuage provide any further evidence to supoort the case?

There is, indeed, evidence from prior to December 2006 - I've made some mention of it when referring to the Jacobs report. 

I was on the 17:45 from Swindon to Westbury on the last day it ran. There *were* a few unoccupied seats, but it was sufficiently crowded that some people chose to stand.   The majority of people came from Swindon, a good number joined the train at Chippenham (Bristol and Bath commuters), and perhaps 10 us us were not regulars but there to take one last look at a service that had been "carrying fresh air" around five years ago.  Many of the people were very angry

I wrote in my blog:

What will people do as from Monday?

Sxxx will extend his journey time by 25 minutes each way and make a bus-train journey where he currently takes train-train. A crossplatform connection is transformed into a much more awkward one. Fare changes for the new route mean he'll be paying more for the service that will be worse for him.

Wxxx was on the 17:02 from Melksham yesterday, returning to London. It's a very occasional journey for him personally, but various colleagues of his make the journey and use this service from time to time. Next time one of them travels? Well - they're our customers and we'll probably give them a lift to Chippenham station, or have them get a taxi; the evening buses from Melkham don't to to Chippenham station and I am not suggesting to my customers that they drag suitcases the half mile transfer that recommended new route would involve.

Rxxx will set off earlier (06:47 from Frome, as against 07:20) and have to change at Westbury for Swindon. In the evening, the new train is just too late and the new journey home will involve a dogleg via Bath, with 6 flights of stairs and a poor connection.

Gxxx heard of the withdrawal for the first time on yesterday's train. An infrequent (but repeated) traveller from Chippenham to Westbury, with child and heavy baggage, she was too shocked to have any idea at all what she will do in the future. She DOES know the "Bath change" option and doesn't consider it practical.

Axxxxx is one of the Great Western staff. He won't be inconveninced by the change, as he won't need to be in the area when there's no train.

Txxx can't drive. His wife will be driving up to collect him from work each day as there's no viable alternative in his case. He doesn't expect his new situation to remain like that for very long though ....

However - that was five years ago.   We were angry, really angry at the time, but things move on.  Former users gave up as they tried to fix do their old jobs, and some went onto the umemployment list.  Politicians change (too frequently, it seems) but many of the public servant remain in post. And I've come to learn over the years that almost all of them are very knoweldable and skilled, want to do their best for rail, but they're working with a system that doesn't always let them provide an appropriate solution for issues.

By bearing this in mind, by making a good case along the lines requested, by brining other parties on board, we now have an excellent case - and in a whole new housing, local government setup, and where "sustainability" and "access for all"are so much more important.

This iw what the TransWilts trains will look like in the future:



We know - we tried it last summer. 

[anthony215]

I do look forward to the day a better service is offered on this route, I wouldn't realy mind a return to the pre 2006 timetable a service of 5/6 trains per day each suitably timed would be a lot better than the current service.

[grahame]

I do look forward to the day a better service is offered on this route, I wouldn't realy mind a return to the pre 2006 timetable a service of 5/6 trains per day each suitably timed would be a lot better than the current service.

But the pre-2006 timetable was based on analysis of potential flows from the late 1990s, and at that time there was a more generous amount of stock around.  Yes - it was better that what we have at present (in may ways very much better) but we could do still better again.  The case / analysis for a return to the 2001 - 2006 timetable hasn't been done and I suspect it would be knife-edge.   Possibly not enough trains to push the service over the balance point between a service that people will use because there's always a train in a couple of hours, and people only using the train if there's a specific one when wanted.   You'll note that neither of the options the DfT^» (Department for Transport - about) / Jacobs looked at for the current franchise was status quo - it was down to 2 a day, or up to one every 2 hours. And there was a reason 

[ellendune]

Swindon to salisbury is slow by car (Google maps suggests 1hr 9 mins, but in peak periods this is optimistic). By bus it takes
over 2 hours.

Based on existing train times a direct service would take 1hr 15 minutes.  This would be extremely competitive and would make this commute much more attractive.   

[grahame]

Swindon to salisbury is slow by car (Google maps suggests 1hr 9 mins, but in peak periods this is optimistic). By bus it takes
over 2 hours.

Based on existing train times a direct service would take 1hr 15 minutes.  This would be extremely competitive and would make this commute much more attractive.   

Yes  - a direct service would be very competitive in time taken.  It wouldn't be competitive on price, as the anytime return fare via the TransWilts is a staggering ^112.00 as of this morning.   Taken purely on a Swindon <-> Salisbury flow, there is also a question as to whether there would be a high enough volume of traffic to justify the service.   However, the route (and the timing you have quoted) between Swindon and Salisbury covers a journey that also covers the next 3 largest town in Wiltshire, and Warminster, Westbury and Dilton Marsh too.  So you also want to look at traffic flows such as:

Chippenham <-> Salisbury
Melksham <-> Salisbury
Chippenham <-> Warminster
Trowbridge <-> Swindon
Swindon <-> Melksham
Warminster <-> Swindon
Melksham <-> London (*)
Chippenham <-> Trowbridge
Bristol <-> Melksham (*)
And so on, covering Dilton Marsh and Westbury to North Wilts and Swindon for example

All of which are significant, and all of which would now become direct with a saving of 20 minutes upwards on every single journey, or which would become practical where they have previously been impractical (these latter marked (*) )

 

[Phil]

There's an awful lot of Melksham to Bath (and back) traffic as well, I suspect. Including commuters (I did it myself for almost 20 years)

[ellendune]

Yes  - a direct service would be very competitive in time taken.  It wouldn't be competitive on price, as the anytime return fare via the TransWilts is a staggering ^112.00 as of this morning.   

Nat Rail enquiries does indeed quote the ^112 fare via Reading and Basingstoke, but via Bath and the TransWilts it quotes the anytime return as only ^32.80.

[grahame]

Yes  - a direct service would be very competitive in time taken.  It wouldn't be competitive on price, as the anytime return fare via the TransWilts is a staggering ^112.00 as of this morning.   

Nat Rail enquiries does indeed quote the ^112 fare via Reading and Basingstoke, but via Bath and the TransWilts it quotes the anytime return as only ^32.80.

Odd that - this is what I got from the First site:



The 32.80 fare (or rather the old equivalent one) was "via Bath" - sharing tracks with the TransWilts direct train (first column, no changes, 112.00 return) between Swindon and Chippenham, and between Trowbridge and Salisbury.   You'll note that going via Bath added 53 minutes to the journey.   You appear to be suggesting, Ellendune, that this condition may have changed and have been shown changed on the National Rail engine, right?  If you can give me links / new conditions and details, this would be great news - I believe that the 32.80 should be (say) "Via Trowbridge" and perhaps they've done that but not yet fixed the FGW^▸ (First Great Western) site?

[grahame]

Nope ... I'm getting 56.00 single on the National Rail site too ...