From an answer I have just written to someone about the service cuts / current level and how it came about ...
Why?
Official Answer:
"Trains were lightly used". Doesn't hold water due to growth rates of between 8% and 35% per annum depending on measure taken, but decisions for 2007 were based on 2002 usage figures with an assumption of 0.8% growth.
Some Unofficial Answers:
1. A short train of slower stock carrying passengers at 20p per mile is s nuisance on the mainline from Chippenham to Swindon where it can get in the way of 7 / 8 car High Speed Train (
HST▸ )s carrying passengers at over 50p per mile and delay them. If an High Speed Train (HST) if running late but the slower train is on time, it can delay the High Speed Train (HST) further and cause a penalty for the
TOC▸ . Evidence includes the fact that the first train of the day off Swindon is at 06:19 - before the first High Speed Train (HST) from London.
2. The single track line from Thingley to Bradford South provides part of the only useful route for freight from Southampton to the Midlands and North that avoids Reading and Bristol bottlenecks. It is shown as "high growth" in railway plans and that could lead to a capactity issue. Best get rid of the "TransWilts" service now before it gets too busy.
3. When the franchise was awarded,
FGW▸ / the
DfT» were looking to the local county council to "play ball" and provide some subsidy, but the county council pleaded poverty and the service was lost due to a lack of agreement
4. First also run buses along the Chippenham - Trowbridge stretch, and end to end passengers can also make the journey with a dogleg change at Bath. Both options are much slower and inconvenient, but users without their own transport are forced to use them.The bus from Melksham to Chippenham actually costs more than the train. Until last April, different operators were involved.
5. The line does not link Labour / marginal consituencies. It's Labour at one end, but the rest is all Blue and Yellow and those are the areas the majority of the passengers come from. So there's no "political will" to provide. And the people of Wiltshire are a quiet bunch who accept what's thrust upon them with little objection.
6. The service doesn't start from / end in London, nor do the majority of users connect in or out of London services. And Wiltshire, to London based officials, is sometimes just a county of green fields they pass through on their way to the South West. They would personally have little cause to travel between Wiltshire's five largest population centres, all of which are served by the line.
Closure by stealth???
We did wonder. The remaining timings are a useless combination for any of the regular traffic flows - if the service is right for someone at one end of the day, the return train some 12 hours later is just too far separated from it - people don't work / shop / go to college for THAT long.
However, I received an email in the last few days from the Department for Transport that says
"We need to put the 'closure by stealth' concept to one side, as it is self-seeding and insidious in its effect. I would like to be absolutely clear that there is no conspiracy going on here. Closure of the Melksham line, whether by stealth or otherwise, is not on the agenda". I'm personally of the opinion that a discussion of the options IS healthy, and looking at a worstcase scenario is a useful exercise in helping to remind us what may happen if we don't react what appears to be an ill-fitted and limited current (and I hope temporary) timetable.
Edit: VickiS - Clarifying Acronyms
